Erste Group Bank Issues Negative Forecast for SPOT Earnings

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank lowered its FY2026 EPS forecast for Spotify to $14.07 from $14.26, below the $14.19 consensus estimate.
• Spotify’s latest quarterly results missed expectations, with EPS of $3.03 versus $3.16 expected and revenue of $5.45 billion versus $5.47 billion, although revenue grew 13.9% year over year.
• Despite the estimate cut, analyst sentiment remains favorable: Spotify has a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating and an average price target of $594.50, while shares recently traded near $509.

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT - Free Report) - Equities researchers at Erste Group Bank decreased their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for shares of Spotify Technology in a research note issued to investors on Friday, September 18th. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now expects that the company will post earnings of $14.07 per share for the year, down from their previous estimate of $14.26. The consensus estimate for Spotify Technology's current full-year earnings is $14.19 per share.

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT - Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported $3.03 EPS for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $3.16 by ($0.13). Spotify Technology had a net margin of 18.44% and a return on equity of 41.39%. The firm had revenue of $5.45 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $5.47 billion. During the same quarter in the previous year, the business earned ($0.42) EPS. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 13.9% compared to the same quarter last year.

A number of other research firms also recently weighed in on SPOT. Argus reaffirmed a "buy" rating and issued a $600.00 target price on shares of Spotify Technology in a research report on Thursday, August 13th. Cantor Fitzgerald boosted their price objective on shares of Spotify Technology from $510.00 to $530.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research note on Wednesday, August 5th. Guggenheim reaffirmed a "buy" rating and set a $565.00 target price on shares of Spotify Technology in a research note on Wednesday, August 5th. Weiss Ratings upgraded Spotify Technology from a "hold (c)" rating to a "hold (c+)" rating in a research note on Wednesday, August 26th. Finally, Rosenblatt Securities reduced their price objective on Spotify Technology from $531.00 to $527.00 and set a "neutral" rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday, August 5th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, seventeen have assigned a Buy rating and six have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, Spotify Technology presently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average price target of $594.50.

Spotify Technology Trading Down 0.1%

SPOT opened at $509.11 on Monday. The stock has a fifty day simple moving average of $514.28 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $495.83. The company has a market cap of $104.82 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.70, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.51 and a beta of 1.59. Spotify Technology has a 12-month low of $405.00 and a 12-month high of $740.20.

Insider Buying and Selling

In related news, CEO Alex Norström sold 5,436 shares of Spotify Technology stock in a transaction on Monday, August 3rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $502.10, for a total value of $2,729,415.60. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer owned 66,773 shares of the company's stock, valued at $33,526,723.30. The trade was a 7.53% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, CEO Gustav Söderström sold 20,913 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Monday, September 14th. The shares were sold at an average price of $544.19, for a total value of $11,380,645.47. Following the sale, the chief executive officer owned 20,025 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $10,897,404.75. This represents a 51.08% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. In the last 90 days, insiders have sold 73,451 shares of company stock worth $37,258,896. 0.40% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Institutional Trading of Spotify Technology

Several large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in SPOT. Pin Oak Investment Advisors Inc. bought a new position in Spotify Technology in the second quarter worth approximately $27,000. Osbon Capital Management LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Spotify Technology in the 4th quarter worth $35,000. Portus Wealth Advisors LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Spotify Technology in the 1st quarter worth $32,000. Whipplewood Advisors LLC raised its holdings in Spotify Technology by 423.1% in the 1st quarter. Whipplewood Advisors LLC now owns 68 shares of the company's stock worth $33,000 after purchasing an additional 55 shares during the period. Finally, Palladiem LLC bought a new position in Spotify Technology in the 1st quarter worth $34,000. 84.09% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Key Spotify Technology News

Here are the key news stories impacting Spotify Technology this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Bank of America reaffirmed its bullish view. BofA maintained a Buy rating and a $685 price target, arguing that Spotify’s growth story remains intact and that new monetization tools could support revenue and profit expansion. The target is well above the stock’s recent level and may help counter recent selling pressure. Spotify set for growth, BofA says, citing new monetization tools
• Positive Sentiment: Video and creator monetization are emerging growth drivers. Analysts highlighted Spotify’s push into video and its podcast payout program, which has expanded to 35 countries. These initiatives could increase engagement, attract creators and improve advertising opportunities while reducing reliance on premium subscriptions. Spotify video push could close the valuation gap Spotify podcast payout programme goes global
• Neutral Sentiment: Analyst comparisons provide limited direct catalysts. Articles comparing SPOT with Digital Turbine and Home Depot present Spotify as a potentially attractive long-term consumer or software investment, but they do not introduce material new company-specific information. The broader analyst consensus remains positive, with an average target around $594.50.
• Neutral Sentiment: Product improvements may support retention over time. A new setting prevents children’s music from affecting recommendations and annual Wrapped results. The feature could improve personalization for families, but its near-term financial impact is likely modest. Spotify adds a new kids music setting
• Negative Sentiment: CEO Gustav Söderström sold 20,913 shares worth approximately $11.4 million. The filing said the sale covered tax withholding related to vested equity awards, making it less concerning than a discretionary sale. Nevertheless, the transaction reduced his holdings by roughly 51% and may weigh on sentiment, particularly alongside Spotify’s recent retreat from its highs. Spotify CEO sells shares

Spotify Technology Company Profile

Spotify Technology SA is a Luxembourg-based audio streaming company that operates the Spotify platform. The service gives users access to a broad catalog of music, podcasts and audiobooks, with features for searching, discovering, creating and sharing audio content across connected devices.

Spotify offers an ad-supported service at no subscription cost and paid Premium plans that provide additional features, including ad-free listening and offline playback. The company generates revenue primarily through subscriptions and advertising, while working with music labels, publishers, podcast creators and other rights holders to distribute content.

Founded in Stockholm in 2006 by Daniel Ek and Martin Lorentzon, Spotify launched its streaming service in 2008.

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