Northland Securities Lifts Earnings Estimates for Geo Group

Key Points

• Northland raised its FY2027 EPS forecast for Geo Group to $2.36 from $1.54, above the current-year consensus estimate of $1.44. Other analysts also lifted longer-term earnings forecasts.
• Geo Group reported quarterly EPS of $0.39, beating the $0.35 consensus, while revenue of $761.06 million fell short of estimates. Revenue increased 11.5% year over year.
• Analyst sentiment is broadly positive, with a consensus “Buy” rating and a $41.38 target price, though protests demanding an end to the company’s ICE detention contracts highlight reputational and political pressure.

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO - Free Report) - Analysts at Northland Securities increased their FY2027 earnings per share estimates for Geo Group in a research report issued to clients and investors on Friday, November 6th. Northland Securities analyst G. Gibas now expects that the real estate investment trust will post earnings per share of $2.36 for the year, up from their previous estimate of $1.54. The consensus estimate for Geo Group's current full-year earnings is $1.44 per share.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Thursday, November 5th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.39 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.35 by $0.04. The business had revenue of $761.06 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $770.87 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 11.44% and a net margin of 5.74%. The business's quarterly revenue was up 11.5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the business earned $0.25 EPS.

GEO has been the subject of a number of other research reports. Noble Financial reiterated an "outperform" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, August 10th. JonesTrading lifted their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $40.00 to $42.75 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research note on Thursday, November 5th. Wall Street Zen cut shares of Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. UBS Group reiterated a "buy" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Tuesday, October 6th. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have given a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the company's stock. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of "Buy" and a consensus target price of $41.38.

Geo Group Stock Performance

Shares of Geo Group stock opened at $31.89 on Wednesday. The firm's fifty day simple moving average is $29.98 and its 200-day simple moving average is $24.62. The stock has a market capitalization of $4.22 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.52, a PEG ratio of 1.50 and a beta of 0.78. Geo Group has a 12 month low of $12.51 and a 12 month high of $33.17. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.97, a current ratio of 1.71 and a quick ratio of 1.65.

Insider Activity at Geo Group

In other news, VP Matthew Albence sold 11,797 shares of the company's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $31.45, for a total transaction of $371,015.65. Following the completion of the sale, the vice president owned 87,602 shares in the company, valued at $2,755,082.90. This represents a 11.87% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through this link. Also, insider Ronald A. Brack sold 7,000 shares of the stock in a transaction on Friday, August 21st. The stock was sold at an average price of $32.00, for a total value of $224,000.00. Following the sale, the insider directly owned 71,614 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $2,291,648. This represents a 8.90% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Insiders have sold 28,797 shares of company stock valued at $911,916 in the last 90 days. Company insiders own 4.98% of the company's stock.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in GEO. Public Sector Pension Investment Board acquired a new position in shares of Geo Group during the third quarter worth about $15,306,000. Global Retirement Partners LLC boosted its holdings in Geo Group by 377.1% in the 3rd quarter. Global Retirement Partners LLC now owns 5,534 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $169,000 after purchasing an additional 4,374 shares in the last quarter. Russell Investments Group Ltd. boosted its holdings in Geo Group by 13.4% in the 3rd quarter. Russell Investments Group Ltd. now owns 93,303 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $2,843,000 after purchasing an additional 11,001 shares in the last quarter. Maryland State Retirement & Pension System increased its position in Geo Group by 49.4% during the 3rd quarter. Maryland State Retirement & Pension System now owns 28,664 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $873,000 after purchasing an additional 9,483 shares during the period. Finally, Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund increased its position in Geo Group by 16.4% during the 3rd quarter. Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund now owns 67,758 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $2,065,000 after purchasing an additional 9,564 shares during the period. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 76.10% of the company's stock.

Key Stories Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Several analysts raised their earnings outlooks. Noble Financial increased its FY2027 EPS estimate to $2.06 from $1.56 and its FY2026 estimate to $1.45 from $1.31; Sidoti lifted its FY2027 and FY2028 forecasts to $2.17 and $2.31, respectively. Northland also raised its FY2027 estimate to $2.36 from $1.54. The revisions point to stronger expected earnings growth.
• Positive Sentiment: GEO shares rose amid a broader rally across the sector, which may have contributed to the stock’s gains. Article: GEO Group Jumps 5.1% Amid Sector-Wide Rally
• Negative Sentiment: Protesters at GEO Group’s Charlotte headquarters called for the company to end its ICE detention contracts. The demonstrations underscore possible reputational and political pressure surrounding those contracts. Article: Protesters Target GEO Group’s Charlotte Headquarters

About Geo Group

The GEO Group, Inc. provides government services focused on corrections, detention and community-based supervision. Its services include operating secure facilities and processing centers, managing community reentry programs, and providing electronic monitoring and supervision technology for individuals in the community. The company serves federal, state and local government agencies, primarily in the United States. Its work also includes related services such as secure transportation and support programs for people transitioning from incarceration back into the community.

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