What is Sidoti's Estimate for Geo Group FY2026 Earnings?

Key Points

• Sidoti raised its FY2026 EPS estimate for GEO Group to $1.42 from $1.37, matching the current analyst consensus.
• GEO’s latest quarter beat EPS expectations at $0.39 versus $0.35, while revenue rose 11.5% year over year to $761.1 million but missed analysts’ $770.9 million estimate.
• Analyst sentiment is broadly positive: the stock has a consensus Buy rating and a $41.38 price target; JonesTrading recently raised its target to $42.75.

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO - Free Report) - Investment analysts at Sidoti raised their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for Geo Group in a report issued on Friday, November 6th. Sidoti analyst B. Mccarthy now anticipates that the real estate investment trust will post earnings of $1.42 per share for the year, up from their prior estimate of $1.37. The consensus estimate for Geo Group's current full-year earnings is $1.42 per share. Sidoti also issued estimates for Geo Group's Q1 2027 earnings at $0.46 EPS, Q2 2027 earnings at $0.55 EPS, Q3 2027 earnings at $0.58 EPS, Q4 2027 earnings at $0.59 EPS, Q1 2028 earnings at $0.57 EPS, Q2 2028 earnings at $0.58 EPS and Q3 2028 earnings at $0.58 EPS.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Thursday, November 5th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.39 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.35 by $0.04. Geo Group had a return on equity of 11.44% and a net margin of 5.74%. The business had revenue of $761.06 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $770.87 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company posted $0.25 earnings per share. Geo Group's revenue was up 11.5% on a year-over-year basis.

Several other equities analysts have also recently weighed in on the stock. Wall Street Zen cut shares of Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research note on Saturday, July 25th. UBS Group reaffirmed a "buy" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Tuesday, October 6th. Noble Financial reiterated an "outperform" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday, August 10th. JonesTrading lifted their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $40.00 to $42.75 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday. Finally, Weiss Ratings restated a "hold (c+)" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Friday, September 4th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have assigned a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the company presently has an average rating of "Buy" and a consensus target price of $41.38.

Geo Group Trading Up 0.2%

Shares of Geo Group stock opened at $27.85 on Monday. Geo Group has a 12-month low of $12.51 and a 12-month high of $33.17. The stock has a market cap of $3.69 billion, a P/E ratio of 22.28, a P/E/G ratio of 1.40 and a beta of 0.78. The company has a quick ratio of 1.65, a current ratio of 1.71 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.97. The business's 50 day moving average is $30.03 and its 200-day moving average is $24.49.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in GEO. Bessemer Group Inc. lifted its stake in shares of Geo Group by 111.9% during the 1st quarter. Bessemer Group Inc. now owns 1,723 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $29,000 after buying an additional 910 shares during the last quarter. Parallel Advisors LLC boosted its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 165.5% during the 3rd quarter. Parallel Advisors LLC now owns 1,017 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $31,000 after buying an additional 634 shares during the period. Fortitude Family Office LLC acquired a new position in Geo Group in the 3rd quarter valued at about $32,000. Global Retirement Partners LLC acquired a new position in Geo Group in the 2nd quarter valued at about $34,000. Finally, Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio grew its stake in Geo Group by 22.7% in the 1st quarter. Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio now owns 3,866 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $65,000 after buying an additional 715 shares during the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Insider Activity at Geo Group

In related news, insider Ronald A. Brack sold 7,000 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, August 21st. The stock was sold at an average price of $32.00, for a total transaction of $224,000.00. Following the transaction, the insider directly owned 71,614 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $2,291,648. The trade was a 8.90% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through the SEC website. Also, VP Matthew Albence sold 11,797 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $31.45, for a total value of $371,015.65. Following the transaction, the vice president directly owned 87,602 shares in the company, valued at $2,755,082.90. The trade was a 11.87% decrease in their ownership of the stock. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Insiders have sold a total of 28,797 shares of company stock valued at $911,916 over the last quarter. 4.98% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

Geo Group News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: GEO reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.39, ahead of the $0.35 consensus and up from $0.25 a year earlier. Revenue grew 11.5% year over year to $761.1 million. Article: GEO Group Surpasses Q3 Earnings Estimates
• Positive Sentiment: Management forecast Q4 revenue of $777 million–$827 million and adjusted EBITDA of $149 million–$154 million, citing increased ICE activations—supporting expectations that government demand can drive further growth. Article: GEO Forecasts Q4 Revenue and EBITDA
• Positive Sentiment: JonesTrading raised its price target to $42.75 from $40 and maintained a Buy rating, signaling increased analyst optimism. JonesTrading Recommendations
• Negative Sentiment: Q3 revenue of $761.1 million missed the approximately $770.9 million analyst estimate. This shortfall may offset some of the positive impact of the EPS beat. Article: GEO Group Misses Q3 Revenue Estimates
• Negative Sentiment: GEO’s reliance on ICE and government contracts leaves it exposed to potential policy shifts; a pre-election report highlighted political uncertainty as a risk for private-prison operators. Article: Political Risks for GEO Group and CoreCivic

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group, Inc provides government services focused on corrections, detention and community-based supervision. Its services include operating secure facilities and processing centers, managing community reentry programs, and providing electronic monitoring and supervision technology for individuals in the community.

The company serves federal, state and local government agencies, primarily in the United States. Its work also includes related services such as secure transportation and support programs for people transitioning from incarceration back into the community.

Founded in 1984 as Wackenhut Corrections Corporation, the company adopted the GEO Group name in 2003.

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