Natera CFO Maps Multiple Paths to $6 Billion Revenue Target by 2029

Natera NASDAQ: NTRA Chief Financial Officer Mike Brophy said the company has multiple paths to its $6 billion revenue target for 2029, citing growth in its Signatera cancer testing business and opportunities to improve reimbursement.

Speaking at a UBS event, Brophy also addressed Natera’s CEO transition, plans for colorectal cancer screening and preparations to launch Signatera in Japan. He described the 2029 target as achievable without relying heavily on businesses that do not yet generate revenue.

CEO Transition and Revenue Target

Brophy said the transition from outgoing CEO Steve to Solomon would bring substantial continuity. Solomon joined Natera in 2011 and played a central role in developing its Prospera organ health business and Signatera, including decisions on clinical trials, product strategy and the commercial rollout, Brophy said.

Asked why the transition appeared abrupt, Brophy said Solomon was already deeply involved in the company’s important decisions and meetings. A lengthy overlap could have created uncertainty about who was in charge, he said, adding that Steve remains available under a transition agreement.

Brophy also said Natera’s commercial capabilities extend beyond any one executive, pointing to its experienced sales leadership and established processes.

On the 2029 revenue target, Brophy said Natera is crossing $3 billion in revenue and aims to double that figure. He said the company does not need to reach all its existing long-term goals to hit $6 billion.

For Signatera, Brophy cited an indicative average selling price of $1,450 in 2029, compared with approximately $1,290 currently. He said the company’s longer-term ambition is to reach $2,000, but described the lower figure as achievable through additional Medicare coverage and progress with other reimbursement. Natera also needs repeat testing among existing patients and sustainable growth in new patients, he said.

Signatera Growth and Investment

Brophy said the market for minimal residual disease, or MRD, testing remains in its early stages. He estimated the annual revenue opportunity near the midpoint of the $15 billion to $30 billion range cited by UBS’s Doug Schenkel. Signatera is expected to generate slightly more than $1 billion in revenue this year, Brophy said.

The business performed 318,000 tests in the quarter, up 33,000 sequentially and 113,000 from a year earlier, according to Brophy. He said year-over-year volume growth is now a more useful measure than quarterly changes because of the business’s scale.

Natera plans to continue investing in its commercial organization, although Brophy said the primary focus of Signatera investment will remain research and development, particularly clinical trials. He said the bulk of operating expense growth this year and next year is expected to be in R&D.

Brophy said Natera’s core women’s health, organ health and MRD businesses could support significant earnings margins at $6 billion in revenue. However, the company may choose to reinvest in early cancer detection trials, depending on results and expected returns.

Screening and Japan Plans

Brophy expects a readout from the FIND colorectal cancer screening study next year, likely in the second half, though he cautioned that timing is uncertain. The study has completed enrollment ahead of schedule, he said.

Following the readout, Natera would need to submit its test to the Food and Drug Administration. Brophy estimated the review process at about nine months and said a U.S. launch could fall in the second half of 2028 or early 2029, subject to approval.

The company’s approach to multicancer early detection will depend in part on what it learns from FIND, Brophy said. He expects Natera to apply technology and assay development from colorectal screening to that effort.

In Japan, Brophy said Natera is approaching a Signatera launch and hopes to obtain pricing by the JPMorgan Conference in January, although the timing is not entirely within the company’s control. He cautioned against expecting a large Japanese contribution in 2027, while saying the market could expand the number of colorectal cancer patients Natera can serve over time.

About Natera (NASDAQ:NTRA)

Natera, Inc. is a diagnostics company that develops and provides genetic testing and molecular diagnostics for reproductive health, oncology and organ health. Its tests analyze cell-free DNA and other genetic material to support screening, diagnosis and disease monitoring. In reproductive health, Natera offers Panorama, a noninvasive prenatal screening test, and Horizon, a carrier screening test. Its oncology portfolio includes Signatera, a personalized circulating tumor DNA test used to monitor for molecular residual disease and assess cancer recurrence.

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