Sigma Lithium Forecasts $200 Million in Free Cash Flow After Third-Quarter Stoppages

Key Points

• Third-quarter stoppages weighed on production and margins: Sigma Lithium reported $23 million in revenue and a 32% gross margin, down from 60% in the second quarter, while saying it resumed operations after each disruption.
• Free cash flow projections depend on production and current lithium prices: Sigma forecast $200 million over the next 12 months at 240,000 tons of production, and $275 million in 2027 at 330,000 tons; these are forecasts, not reported results.
• Liquidity and legal outlook: The company ended the quarter with $10 million in cash, cited $52 million in additional potential short-term liquidity, and said it extended a debt maturity to June 2027. It also said it retained its operating licenses and expects a state agreement to cost about $1 million over the next year.

Sigma Lithium NASDAQ: SGML reported $23 million in third-quarter 2026 revenue and a 32% gross margin, despite state and federal stoppages that disrupted operations during the period.

In a preview of its third-quarter results, the company said it resumed operations after each stoppage and maintained low costs even as production volumes fell. Sigma forecast production of 240,000 tons over the next 12 months and 330,000 tons in 2027.

The company produced 7,293 tons of high-grade material during the third quarter, alongside 6,000 tons of intermediate material and 15,000 tons of high-grade equivalent low-grade material. Sigma said its processing circuit can convert the intermediate and low-grade inventories into material for sale.

Costs and production outlook

Sigma reported third-quarter costs of $424 per ton at the plant gate and $518 per ton on a cost, insurance and freight basis. Its 32% gross margin compared with 60% in the second quarter, when production reached 35,000 tons, the company said.

The company attributed its production outlook in part to upgrades to its mining fleet through a commercial partnership with equipment supplier SANY China. Sigma said its 60-ton trucks haul 50% more than those used by its previous contractor, and that larger trucks and excavators are expected to further increase capacity and efficiency.

At current lithium prices, Sigma projected that production of 240,000 tons over the next 12 months would generate $200 million in free cash flow. It estimated that 330,000 tons of production in 2027 would generate $275 million at the same prices. Those figures are forecasts, not reported results.

Sigma also outlined longer-term scenarios involving additional plants. At current prices, it estimated annual free cash flow of $500 million with two plants and $730 million with three plants.

Debt and liquidity

Sigma said it extended a debt maturity to June 2027, giving it more time to continue reducing leverage. The company said it had retired 40% of its total debt over the past two years and reduced short-term debt by 83% over the past year. It put remaining short-term debt at $13 million and said it planned to roll over trade lines used in the ordinary course of business.

The company said it ended the third quarter with $10 million in cash. It also said it had closed $10 million in high-grade sales in the fourth quarter and identified $52 million in other sources of short-term liquidity, including potential sales of lithium fines and outstanding installments from a $96 million offtake arrangement.

Stoppages and legal proceedings

Sigma said it maintained its operating licenses following state and federal challenges and described the outcomes as victories for its environmental and social practices. The company said a federal court recognized the economic impact a stoppage could have in Minas Gerais, where it said 19,000 jobs and 80,000 family members rely on its operations.

The company also said it entered a no-fault agreement, known as a TAC, with the state government. Sigma estimated the agreement would cost $1 million over the following year, primarily to regenerate rock piles with grass. It said it had also built gravel access roads for two houses as part of its response to issues associated with the state stoppage.

Sigma said a north pit that had been the subject of speculation has been inactive since 2024 and that it is mining the south pit. The company said operations were continuing normally and that its priority was to deliver on its production plans.

About Sigma Lithium (NASDAQ:SGML)

Sigma Lithium Corp. is a Canadian-based lithium development and mining company focused on producing battery-grade lithium concentrate in Brazil. The company's principal asset is the Grota do Cirilo project in the Jequitinhonha Valley of Minas Gerais, one of Brazil's established hard-rock lithium regions.

Grota do Cirilo includes the Xuxa mine and processing operations that produce lithium concentrate from spodumene-bearing ore. Sigma Lithium uses a dense-media separation process designed to recover lithium while minimizing the use of chemicals and water.

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