Synchrony Financial Sees Several Paths to Double-Digit EPS Growth in 2027

Key Points

• Synchrony sees several levers for double-digit EPS growth in 2027, including maturing loans, revenue growth, operating leverage and capital returns. CFO Brian Wenzel does not currently expect a U.S. recession that year, but says rising charge-offs could create pressure.
• Consumer spending is growing across generations and credit grades, though affordability is a concern for some middle-income consumers. Synchrony expects a more promotional holiday season and says October credit results followed seasonal patterns.
• Synchrony is expanding the Walmart OnePay card and investing in AI, which could improve productivity and support future commerce opportunities. Wenzel said AI-related gains may become visible in 2027–2028, while agentic-commerce revenue opportunities are likely a couple of years away.

Synchrony Financial NYSE: SYF expects multiple factors, including maturing loans, revenue growth, operating leverage and capital returns, to support its pursuit of double-digit earnings-per-share growth in 2027, Chief Financial Officer Brian Wenzel said at a KBW conference.

Wenzel said the company does not currently expect a U.S. recession in 2027, though he cautioned that the outlook could change before Synchrony discusses its plans in January. He expects some pressure from rising charge-offs, but said the company’s economic arrangements with partners should help offset that headwind.

“There is not a single lever,” Wenzel said, describing the path to the growth target.

Credit and consumer spending

Wenzel said Synchrony’s newly released October credit results were in line with seasonal patterns. He noted that net charge-offs should be adjusted for a 25-cycle period, compared with a more typical 28 cycles.

He attributed consumer resilience in part to wage growth and a labor market that remains tight, while noting that affordability pressures are affecting some middle-income consumers. Synchrony had not seen holiday shopping pulled forward into October, he said, suggesting consumers may be waiting for promotions.

“We are optimistic,” Wenzel said of the holiday sales trajectory, while adding that he expects a more promotional season given sales trends to that point.

Wenzel also said spending growth was occurring across generations and credit grades. On a dollar basis, spending is weighted toward higher-end consumers partly because Synchrony is more restrictive in its lending than it was three years ago, he said. But he added that younger and non-prime consumers were growing faster than prime and super-prime customers.

Walmart card expansion

Wenzel said Synchrony was pleased with the OnePay Walmart credit card program after completing its first year of originations. He cited customer engagement with Walmart+ and the card’s presence in the OnePay app and on Walmart’s digital properties.

The next phase is getting the product into Walmart’s front-end checkout, where Wenzel said it could reach more customers. He described that step as a matter of Walmart’s technology priorities, noting that retailers are reluctant to make changes to point-of-sale systems heading into the holiday season. He did not provide a timeline.

Wenzel said Synchrony continues to pursue partnerships with companies that want to engage loyal customers, while avoiding programs primarily intended to monetize an asset. Some potential relationships can take a year to develop, he said.

AI investment and competition

Synchrony is working to ensure its products and merchant partners are visible as artificial intelligence changes how consumers discover products and choose payment methods, Wenzel said. The company is also working with financial-services partners, AI companies and browsers on issues such as transaction authentication and consumer trust.

Internally, Wenzel said AI has helped technology teams deliver features faster and reduced the time needed for tasks such as credit forecasting. Synchrony is beginning to consider how to reorganize work to make use of that capacity, with benefits potentially becoming visible in 2027 and into 2028, he said.

Revenue opportunities from agentic commerce are likely a couple of years away, Wenzel said, but require investment now.

Asked about newer private-label competitors, Wenzel credited them with creating agile platforms that can be deployed quickly. He said Synchrony differentiates itself through scale, customized offerings and the ability to use partner data in credit decisions. He said he had not seen an impact on Synchrony’s growth, in part because those competitors generally serve smaller programs.

Capital allocation and regulation

Synchrony’s first capital priority remains organic growth at attractive returns, followed by maintaining a steady dividend, Wenzel said. The company can use excess capital for acquisitions or share repurchases, although he said he would not expect a large acquisition and that Synchrony remains disciplined on price.

On the possibility of credit card interest-rate caps, Wenzel said the company would engage with legislators to explain how the market works and discuss potential effects on consumers and the economy. He also said an effective Consumer Financial Protection Bureau operating within its mandate could be beneficial, compared with dealing with 50 state attorneys general.

About Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF)

Synchrony Financial is a consumer financial services company that provides credit products and related services through partnerships with retailers, healthcare providers and other businesses. Its offerings include private-label and co-branded credit cards, installment loans and promotional financing options. The company also provides consumer banking products, including savings accounts and certificates of deposit. Its financing solutions serve customers in areas such as retail, home improvement, automotive, health and wellness, and digital commerce, primarily in the United States.

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