Jefferies Financial Group Has Lowered Expectations for Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP) Stock Price

Key Points

• Jefferies cut its price target on ADP to $190 from $230, implying about a 9.3% downside, and mixed analyst revisions have left the stock with a consensus "Hold" rating and an average target of $254.40.
• ADP beat Q3 estimates (EPS $3.37 vs. $3.30; revenue $5.94B) and raised FY2026 guidance to roughly $11.01–$11.11 EPS, citing strong payroll demand and AI-related gains with expected adjusted EPS growth of 10–11% and revenue growth of 6–7%.
• The board authorized a $6 billion share buyback (≈5.8% of shares), but the stock is trading near $209.54 with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day and some recent insider selling, signaling technical and near-term sentiment risks.

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP - Get Free Report) had its target price decreased by analysts at Jefferies Financial Group from $230.00 to $190.00 in a report released on Thursday,MarketScreener reports. Jefferies Financial Group's price objective would suggest a potential downside of 9.33% from the company's current price.

A number of other research firms have also weighed in on ADP. BMO Capital Markets decreased their target price on shares of Automatic Data Processing from $281.00 to $234.00 and set a "market perform" rating on the stock in a research note on Tuesday, April 7th. UBS Group raised their target price on shares of Automatic Data Processing from $210.00 to $218.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research note on Thursday. Guggenheim initiated coverage on shares of Automatic Data Processing in a research note on Thursday, March 19th. They issued a "buy" rating and a $270.00 target price on the stock. Morgan Stanley decreased their target price on shares of Automatic Data Processing from $311.00 to $274.00 and set an "equal weight" rating on the stock in a research note on Tuesday. Finally, Stifel Nicolaus decreased their target price on shares of Automatic Data Processing from $270.00 to $240.00 in a research note on Thursday. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have assigned a Buy rating, ten have given a Hold rating and two have given a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average target price of $254.40.

Automatic Data Processing Price Performance

ADP traded down $2.40 during trading on Thursday, reaching $209.54. The company's stock had a trading volume of 244,022 shares, compared to its average volume of 3,417,466. The company has a quick ratio of 1.03, a current ratio of 1.04 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.63. The firm has a fifty day simple moving average of $206.67 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $238.64. Automatic Data Processing has a 1 year low of $188.16 and a 1 year high of $329.93. The company has a market cap of $84.37 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.57 and a beta of 0.85.

Automatic Data Processing (NASDAQ:ADP - Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Wednesday, April 29th. The business services provider reported $3.37 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $3.30 by $0.07. Automatic Data Processing had a net margin of 20.12% and a return on equity of 68.82%. The business had revenue of $5.94 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $5.85 billion. During the same period last year, the company posted $3.06 EPS. The business's revenue was up 7.0% on a year-over-year basis. Automatic Data Processing has set its FY 2026 guidance at 11.010-11.110 EPS. As a group, analysts anticipate that Automatic Data Processing will post 11.06 EPS for the current year.

Automatic Data Processing announced that its Board of Directors has initiated a share buyback program on Wednesday, January 14th that permits the company to buyback $6.00 billion in shares. This buyback authorization permits the business services provider to reacquire up to 5.8% of its stock through open market purchases. Stock buyback programs are often a sign that the company's board of directors believes its shares are undervalued.

Insider Transactions at Automatic Data Processing

In other news, VP David Foskett sold 266 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, February 5th. The shares were sold at an average price of $237.00, for a total transaction of $63,042.00. Following the completion of the sale, the vice president owned 10,954 shares in the company, valued at $2,596,098. This trade represents a 2.37% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. Also, VP Brian L. Michaud sold 1,000 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, February 6th. The stock was sold at an average price of $234.18, for a total transaction of $234,180.00. Following the sale, the vice president owned 15,310 shares of the company's stock, valued at $3,585,295.80. This represents a 6.13% decrease in their position. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Insiders sold 1,809 shares of company stock worth $410,410 in the last 90 days. Insiders own 0.20% of the company's stock.

Institutional Trading of Automatic Data Processing

Several institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in ADP. Brighton Jones LLC increased its holdings in Automatic Data Processing by 92.1% in the 4th quarter. Brighton Jones LLC now owns 10,026 shares of the business services provider's stock valued at $2,935,000 after purchasing an additional 4,808 shares during the last quarter. Bison Wealth LLC increased its holdings in Automatic Data Processing by 22.8% in the 4th quarter. Bison Wealth LLC now owns 3,664 shares of the business services provider's stock valued at $1,073,000 after purchasing an additional 681 shares during the last quarter. Schnieders Capital Management LLC. increased its holdings in Automatic Data Processing by 21.8% in the 2nd quarter. Schnieders Capital Management LLC. now owns 1,259 shares of the business services provider's stock valued at $388,000 after purchasing an additional 225 shares during the last quarter. Osterweis Capital Management Inc. acquired a new stake in Automatic Data Processing in the 2nd quarter valued at approximately $108,000. Finally, Diversify Advisory Services LLC increased its holdings in Automatic Data Processing by 17.5% in the 2nd quarter. Diversify Advisory Services LLC now owns 5,477 shares of the business services provider's stock valued at $1,641,000 after purchasing an additional 815 shares during the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 80.03% of the company's stock.

Key Stories Impacting Automatic Data Processing

Here are the key news stories impacting Automatic Data Processing this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q3 beat and guidance lift — ADP reported EPS of $3.37 and raised FY2026 adjusted EPS growth to 10%–11% and revenue growth to 6%–7%, supporting revenue resiliency and higher forward earnings expectations. ADP forecasts FY 2026 adjusted EPS growth of 10%-11% as it raises revenue
• Positive Sentiment: Company commentary highlighted strong payroll services demand and AI-related gains on the earnings call, reinforcing the revenue/operating leverage story. ADP Earnings Call: AI Gains, Guidance Raised
• Neutral Sentiment: UBS raised its price target to $218 with a “neutral” rating — a modest upside relative to current levels that signals limited near-term analyst enthusiasm. Automatic Data Processing NASDAQ: ADP Price Target Raised to $218.00 at UBS Group
• Neutral Sentiment: TD Cowen nudged its target to $216 (hold), another small upward tweak that keeps expectations broadly in the “flat to modest upside” camp. TD Cowen Issues Positive Forecast for Automatic Data Processing NASDAQ: ADP Stock Price
• Neutral Sentiment: Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target to $244 from $306 but retained an overweight rating — still implying upside, though the reset tempering upside expectations from prior levels. Cantor Fitzgerald adjusts price target on Automatic Data Processing
• Negative Sentiment: Citigroup lowered its target meaningfully (from $265 to $230) and kept a neutral stance — a direct headwind that likely weighs on sentiment despite the beat. Automatic Data Processing NASDAQ: ADP Given New $230.00 Price Target at Citigroup
• Negative Sentiment: Mixed analyst moves and valuation debate — while some targets were raised, several were trimmed and commentators are re-assessing valuation after the recent rebound, creating short-term uncertainty. Assessing Automatic Data Processing’s Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound
• Negative Sentiment: Technical/market context: ADP’s 50-day SMA sits below the 200-day SMA and current price sits well under its one-year high — technical resistance and mixed macro tone may pressure the stock despite fundamentals. (Company filings and market data)

About Automatic Data Processing

Automatic Data Processing, Inc (ADP) is a global provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) and payroll solutions. Founded in 1949 and headquartered in Roseland, New Jersey, ADP began as a payroll processing company and has evolved into a diversified provider of workforce management, HR, benefits administration, tax and compliance services, and analytics for employers of all sizes.

ADP's product portfolio includes payroll processing and tax filing, time and attendance systems, benefits administration, talent management, and HR outsourcing.

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