Jefferies Financial Group Reaffirms "Hold" Rating for Grocery Outlet (NASDAQ:GO)

Key Points

• Jefferies reaffirmed a "Hold" on Grocery Outlet but slashed its price target to $7 from $18, implying about a 20% downside from current levels.
• Q4 revenue rose ~10.7% to $1.22 billion and gross profit improved, but EPS of $0.19 missed estimates and FY2026 guidance of $0.45–$0.55 came in well below Street expectations, which has driven investor concern.
• Analysts have largely moved more cautious — the consensus is "Reduce" with an average target of $11.73, following multiple downgrades and target cuts across firms.

Grocery Outlet (NASDAQ:GO - Get Free Report)'s stock had its "hold" rating reaffirmed by equities researchers at Jefferies Financial Group in a research note issued on Thursday, MarketBeat Ratings reports. They presently have a $7.00 target price on the stock, down from their prior target price of $18.00. Jefferies Financial Group's price objective suggests a potential downside of 20.36% from the stock's current price.

Other research analysts also recently issued research reports about the stock. Wells Fargo & Company downgraded shares of Grocery Outlet from an "overweight" rating to an "equal weight" rating and decreased their price target for the stock from $16.00 to $10.50 in a research note on Wednesday, February 25th. Bank of America reduced their price objective on shares of Grocery Outlet from $19.00 to $16.00 and set a "neutral" rating on the stock in a report on Wednesday, November 5th. Weiss Ratings reiterated a "sell (d)" rating on shares of Grocery Outlet in a research note on Thursday, January 22nd. DA Davidson reissued a "neutral" rating and issued a $15.00 target price on shares of Grocery Outlet in a report on Thursday, December 4th. Finally, Telsey Advisory Group downgraded Grocery Outlet from an "outperform" rating to a "market perform" rating and decreased their price target for the stock from $15.00 to $9.00 in a report on Thursday. One analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, ten have issued a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of "Reduce" and an average target price of $11.73.

Grocery Outlet Trading Down 0.9%

GO opened at $8.79 on Thursday. The business has a fifty day moving average price of $9.79 and a 200 day moving average price of $12.74. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.40, a current ratio of 1.30 and a quick ratio of 0.25. Grocery Outlet has a 12 month low of $8.73 and a 12 month high of $19.41. The stock has a market capitalization of $862.65 million, a price-to-earnings ratio of -175.80, a PEG ratio of 1.80 and a beta of 0.50.

Grocery Outlet (NASDAQ:GO - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, March 4th. The company reported $0.19 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.21 by ($0.02). Grocery Outlet had a negative net margin of 0.10% and a positive return on equity of 5.86%. The company had revenue of $1.22 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $1.23 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the business earned $0.15 EPS. Grocery Outlet's revenue for the quarter was up 10.7% on a year-over-year basis. Grocery Outlet has set its FY 2026 guidance at 0.450-0.550 EPS. Sell-side analysts expect that Grocery Outlet will post 0.63 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Institutional Trading of Grocery Outlet

Large investors have recently made changes to their positions in the company. Aster Capital Management DIFC Ltd grew its stake in Grocery Outlet by 1,030.4% during the 4th quarter. Aster Capital Management DIFC Ltd now owns 2,532 shares of the company's stock worth $26,000 after buying an additional 2,308 shares during the last quarter. Bayforest Capital Ltd purchased a new stake in Grocery Outlet in the third quarter valued at approximately $29,000. Hantz Financial Services Inc. boosted its holdings in shares of Grocery Outlet by 591.5% in the third quarter. Hantz Financial Services Inc. now owns 2,033 shares of the company's stock valued at $33,000 after acquiring an additional 1,739 shares during the period. Kestra Advisory Services LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Grocery Outlet in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $35,000. Finally, PNC Financial Services Group Inc. grew its position in shares of Grocery Outlet by 32.3% during the second quarter. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. now owns 2,942 shares of the company's stock worth $37,000 after acquiring an additional 719 shares during the last quarter. 99.87% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Grocery Outlet News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Grocery Outlet this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Revenue and margins improved year-over-year: Q4 sales rose ~10.7% to $1.22B and gross profit increased ~11.5%; operating cash flow and cash balances also grew, which supports near-term liquidity. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: The company noted an extra 53rd week in the period (complicates year‑over‑year comps) and announced a formal “Optimization Plan” to improve execution, profitability and cash flow — the plan could help margins long term but may include near‑term charges/costs. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Reported EPS missed estimates: Q4 EPS $0.19 vs. consensus ~$0.21 and revenue slightly below forecasts — investors view the miss as a sign of margin pressure. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: FY2026 guidance came in below Street expectations: EPS guide of $0.45–$0.55 (consensus ~$0.77) and revenue guide of ~$4.6–4.7B vs. ~4.8B consensus — this weaker outlook is the primary driver of investor concern. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: GAAP/one‑time items drove large reported operating and net losses in some reports (Quiver highlighted an operating loss and a GAAP diluted loss per share), amplifying the market reaction; shares reportedly fell sharply after the release. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Notable insider and institutional selling reported in the quarter (including large fund reductions), which can add selling pressure following the weak report and guide. Read More.

Grocery Outlet Company Profile

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. NASDAQ: GO is a specialty discount retailer that offers consumers deeply discounted groceries by purchasing excess inventory, closeouts, and overstocks from manufacturers and distributors. Headquartered in Emeryville, California, the company operates two primary banners—Grocery Outlet and Fresh2Go—with a combined footprint of more than 400 stores. Its product assortment spans fresh produce, meat, dairy, bakery items, household staples, natural and organic offerings, and select specialty products, all sold at significant markdowns compared to conventional supermarkets.

The company's unique buying model enables it to source inventory through opportunistic purchases of surplus freight, discontinued items, and closeout deals, which it then passes on as savings to its customers.

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