JPMorgan Chase & Co. Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) Stock Price

Key Points

• JPMorgan cut its price target on Tractor Supply to $48 (from $55) and kept a "neutral" rating, part of widespread analyst target trims that leave the consensus average target near $49.08 with mixed "Moderate Buy" sentiment.
• Tractor Supply missed Q1 expectations—EPS $0.31 vs. $0.35 and revenue $3.59B vs. $3.64B—which sparked a selloff that drove the stock to a one‑year low around $36.85 and accelerated momentum selling.
• Management maintained FY2026 guidance of $2.13–$2.23 EPS, while insiders have been net sellers recently (222,348 shares, about $12M sold over 90 days) and institutional ownership remains very high (~98.7%).

Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO - Get Free Report) had its target price cut by research analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. from $55.00 to $48.00 in a research note issued on Wednesday,MarketScreener reports. The firm currently has a "neutral" rating on the specialty retailer's stock. JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s price target would suggest a potential upside of 30.27% from the company's previous close.

Several other research firms have also recently commented on TSCO. Raymond James Financial lowered their price target on Tractor Supply from $60.00 to $48.00 and set an "outperform" rating for the company in a report on Wednesday. Stephens lowered their price target on Tractor Supply from $53.00 to $43.00 and set an "equal weight" rating for the company in a report on Wednesday. Robert W. Baird set a $60.00 price target on Tractor Supply and gave the company an "outperform" rating in a report on Friday, April 17th. Barclays lowered their price target on Tractor Supply from $51.00 to $44.00 and set an "equal weight" rating for the company in a report on Wednesday. Finally, Truist Financial set a $44.00 price target on Tractor Supply and gave the company a "hold" rating in a report on Tuesday. Fifteen investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and thirteen have issued a Hold rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, Tractor Supply has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $49.08.

Tractor Supply Price Performance

Tractor Supply stock traded down $1.32 during midday trading on Wednesday, reaching $36.85. 7,232,407 shares of the company were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 7,320,823. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86, a quick ratio of 0.16 and a current ratio of 1.38. The company has a market capitalization of $19.38 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.06, a P/E/G ratio of 2.09 and a beta of 0.75. The firm's 50-day simple moving average is $47.59 and its 200-day simple moving average is $51.34. Tractor Supply has a 1 year low of $36.86 and a 1 year high of $63.99.

Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, April 21st. The specialty retailer reported $0.31 EPS for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.35 by ($0.04). The business had revenue of $3.59 billion during the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $3.64 billion. Tractor Supply had a net margin of 6.91% and a return on equity of 42.58%. The firm's quarterly revenue was up 3.6% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the firm earned $0.34 EPS. Tractor Supply has set its FY 2026 guidance at 2.130-2.230 EPS. On average, analysts anticipate that Tractor Supply will post 2.17 EPS for the current year.

Insiders Place Their Bets

In other news, CFO Kurt D. Barton sold 1,929 shares of Tractor Supply stock in a transaction dated Friday, February 6th. The stock was sold at an average price of $53.94, for a total value of $104,050.26. Following the transaction, the chief financial officer directly owned 44,736 shares of the company's stock, valued at $2,413,059.84. The trade was a 4.13% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is available at this link. Also, CEO Harry A. Lawton III sold 84,670 shares of Tractor Supply stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, February 3rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $53.16, for a total value of $4,501,057.20. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 606,842 shares in the company, valued at $32,259,720.72. This represents a 12.24% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The disclosure for this sale is available in the SEC filing. Over the last ninety days, insiders sold 222,348 shares of company stock worth $11,959,621. 0.64% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Tractor Supply

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of TSCO. Bison Wealth LLC lifted its position in Tractor Supply by 356.1% during the 4th quarter. Bison Wealth LLC now owns 6,426 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $341,000 after acquiring an additional 5,017 shares in the last quarter. Woodline Partners LP lifted its position in Tractor Supply by 40.7% during the 1st quarter. Woodline Partners LP now owns 45,132 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $2,487,000 after acquiring an additional 13,051 shares in the last quarter. Intech Investment Management LLC lifted its position in Tractor Supply by 26.9% during the 1st quarter. Intech Investment Management LLC now owns 26,162 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $1,442,000 after acquiring an additional 5,542 shares in the last quarter. Sei Investments Co. lifted its position in Tractor Supply by 1.2% during the 2nd quarter. Sei Investments Co. now owns 316,009 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $16,676,000 after acquiring an additional 3,631 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Glenview Trust co lifted its position in Tractor Supply by 36.0% during the 2nd quarter. Glenview Trust co now owns 19,627 shares of the specialty retailer's stock worth $1,036,000 after acquiring an additional 5,194 shares in the last quarter. 98.72% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Key Headlines Impacting Tractor Supply

Here are the key news stories impacting Tractor Supply this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Reaffirmed guidance, store growth and digital momentum: Q1 results showed net sales up 3.6% driven by 40 new stores and double‑digit digital growth; management kept FY 2026 guidance intact, which limits near‑term downside risk. Earnings Highlights
• Positive Sentiment: Income/contrarian angle: the stock’s drop has pushed yield higher and some retail commentary calls the name “oversold,” supporting a potential value/dividend trade for income investors. Fool: Dividend Opportunity
• Positive Sentiment: Some brokers still maintain bullish stances (Citigroup retained a buy rating despite cutting its target; DA Davidson has also kept a buy-oriented view even after lowering its target), indicating pockets of analyst support for upside—though targets were trimmed. (Benzinga coverage)
• Neutral Sentiment: Valuation comparison: analyses comparing Tractor Supply to peers like Petco (WOOF) suggest mixed signals on which is the better value right now—useful background but not a direct catalyst. Zacks: WOOF vs TSCO
• Negative Sentiment: Q1 miss and flat comps sparked the selloff: EPS and revenue both missed Street expectations and same‑store sales were essentially flat, the primary immediate driver of the decline. Why TSCO Is Down
• Negative Sentiment: Multiple analyst downgrades/target cuts: several large brokers trimmed price targets or lowered expectations (UBS, Mizuho, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Telsey, Piper Sandler, DA Davidson among others), increasing selling pressure and reducing near‑term upside consensus. Examples: UBS Pessimistic Mizuho Lowers Expectations Morgan Stanley Forecast
• Negative Sentiment: Technical/market reaction: the post‑earnings move set a new 52‑week low and triggered further momentum selling, amplifying the price decline. New 1-Year Low

About Tractor Supply

Tractor Supply Company NASDAQ: TSCO is a specialty retailer focused on products for the home, farm, ranch and outdoors. The company operates a network of physical retail locations complemented by an e-commerce platform, offering a one-stop source of supplies and equipment for customers with rural and suburban lifestyles. Its merchandise assortment targets a range of needs, from animal and livestock care to maintenance, outdoor power equipment, and seasonal products.

Product categories include animal feed and supplies, pet products, fencing and fencing supplies, equine equipment, lawn and garden tools, work clothing and footwear, and small agricultural and outdoor power equipment.

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