Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT) Releases FY 2026 Earnings Guidance

Key Points

• Mattel set FY 2026 guidance of EPS $1.27–$1.39 (above the $1.24 consensus) and revenue of $5.5B–$5.7B (roughly in line with the $5.6B consensus).
• The company beat Q1 expectations with EPS $(0.20) vs. $(0.23) and revenue $862.2M vs. $809.2M, and management said sales are accelerating while emphasizing IP-driven, digital and licensing strategies that could lift margins.
• Analysts are mixed after the update—several firms trimmed price targets (e.g., Jefferies to $19, DA Davidson to $18) and MarketBeat shows an average rating of "Hold" with an average target of $18.44—while modest stock gains coincided with an institutional sale of about $12.5M.

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT - Get Free Report) updated its FY 2026 earnings guidance on Wednesday. The company provided earnings per share (EPS) guidance of 1.270-1.390 for the period, compared to the consensus estimate of 1.240. The company issued revenue guidance of $5.5 billion-$5.7 billion, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $5.6 billion.

Analyst Ratings Changes

A number of analysts recently weighed in on the stock. Jefferies Financial Group cut their price target on shares of Mattel from $25.00 to $19.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday, February 11th. DA Davidson dropped their target price on shares of Mattel from $25.00 to $18.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a report on Wednesday, February 11th. Wells Fargo & Company began coverage on shares of Mattel in a report on Wednesday, March 11th. They issued an "overweight" rating and a $19.00 price target for the company. UBS Group reiterated a "buy" rating and issued a $28.00 price target on shares of Mattel in a report on Thursday, March 5th. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group increased their price objective on shares of Mattel from $16.00 to $18.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research report on Wednesday, February 18th. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have issued a Buy rating, seven have assigned a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average target price of $18.44.

Mattel Stock Up 0.7%

Shares of MAT stock traded up $0.10 during trading hours on Wednesday, hitting $14.89. 7,007,424 shares of the company were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 5,086,990. The business has a 50 day moving average of $15.42 and a two-hundred day moving average of $18.30. The company has a current ratio of 2.15, a quick ratio of 1.76 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.04. Mattel has a 52 week low of $14.10 and a 52 week high of $22.48. The company has a market capitalization of $4.33 billion, a PE ratio of 11.82 and a beta of 0.78.

Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, April 29th. The company reported ($0.20) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.23) by $0.03. Mattel had a net margin of 7.44% and a return on equity of 20.72%. The company had revenue of $862.20 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $809.19 million. Mattel has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.270-1.390 EPS. Analysts anticipate that Mattel will post 1.3 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Key Headlines Impacting Mattel

Here are the key news stories impacting Mattel this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 earnings beat — Mattel reported EPS of ($0.20) vs. consensus ($0.23) and revenue of $862.2M vs. $809.2M, showing stronger-than-expected top-line demand and healthy margins/ROE, which supports near-term earnings momentum. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Management says sales are accelerating — CEO Ynon Kreiz told the WSJ that demand remains strong for franchise staples (Hot Wheels, Uno) and that the current quarter is accelerating, a forward-looking signal investors typically reward. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Progress on strategy and digital initiatives — the company highlighted IP-driven play, family entertainment growth and digital strategy execution in its investor release, which supports higher-margin licensing and content monetization opportunities. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Advertising/commerce innovation — Mattel is turning video ads into shoppable CTV storefronts, a move that could improve marketing ROI and direct sales conversion over time. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Merchandising and partnerships around films and IP — new Toy Story 5 merch drops and joint campaigns (Masters of the Universe/Save the Children) underscore ongoing opportunities to monetize film tie-ins and broaden reach. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: He-Man creator Roger Sweet passed away — timely given the Masters of the Universe release, but not likely to materially affect financials. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Longer-term experiential expansion — coverage notes major openings including Mattel Adventure Park in 2026; strategic for brand extension but not an immediate earnings driver. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Institutional selling reported — an investment firm disclosed selling about $12.5M of Mattel shares in an SEC filing, which could add near-term selling pressure or signal some profit-taking. Read More.

Institutional Trading of Mattel

Hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Quarry LP acquired a new stake in shares of Mattel in the third quarter valued at approximately $28,000. Los Angeles Capital Management LLC acquired a new stake in shares of Mattel in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $31,000. Atlas Capital Advisors Inc. acquired a new stake in shares of Mattel in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $36,000. Danske Bank A S acquired a new stake in shares of Mattel in the third quarter valued at approximately $49,000. Finally, UMB Bank n.a. raised its holdings in shares of Mattel by 56.5% in the fourth quarter. UMB Bank n.a. now owns 3,241 shares of the company's stock valued at $64,000 after purchasing an additional 1,170 shares during the last quarter. 97.15% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Mattel Company Profile

Mattel, Inc is a leading global toy company headquartered in El Segundo, California. Founded in 1945 by Harold “Matt” Matson and Elliot and Ruth Handler, the company has grown into a major player in the toy and family products industry. Mattel designs, manufactures, and markets a broad range of toys, games and entertainment products under well-known brands, including Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, American Girl, Thomas & Friends, UNO and Matchbox. In addition to its proprietary labels, Mattel holds licenses with global entertainment franchises, partnering with Disney, Warner Bros., WWE and other studios to create character-driven play experiences.

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