McDonald's FY2027 EPS Estimate Decreased by Erste Group Bank

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank slightly trimmed its FY2027 EPS estimate for McDonald's to $14.35 (from $14.39) and maintained a Hold rating, signaling modest near‑term caution from that analyst.
• McDonald's recently beat quarterly expectations with $3.12 EPS (vs. $3.05 expected) and revenue of $7.01 billion, reflecting 9.7% year‑over‑year top‑line growth and strong margins.
• Analyst views diverge—several firms have raised price targets (e.g., UBS, Citi, Oppenheimer) but the MarketBeat consensus is a Hold with a $340.93 target; the company pays a $1.86 quarterly dividend (≈2.6% yield) while insiders have recently trimmed positions.

McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD - Free Report) - Equities research analysts at Erste Group Bank cut their FY2027 EPS estimates for shares of McDonald's in a note issued to investors on Monday, April 27th. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now forecasts that the fast-food giant will earn $14.35 per share for the year, down from their previous estimate of $14.39. Erste Group Bank has a "Hold" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for McDonald's' current full-year earnings is $13.21 per share.

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, February 11th. The fast-food giant reported $3.12 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $3.05 by $0.07. McDonald's had a net margin of 31.85% and a negative return on equity of 343.90%. The business had revenue of $7.01 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.81 billion. During the same period in the prior year, the business earned $2.83 EPS. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 9.7% on a year-over-year basis.

Several other brokerages have also issued reports on MCD. JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased their price target on shares of McDonald's from $305.00 to $325.00 and gave the stock an "overweight" rating in a research note on Tuesday, February 24th. Weiss Ratings lowered shares of McDonald's from a "buy (b)" rating to a "buy (b-)" rating in a research note on Monday. Oppenheimer upgraded shares of McDonald's from a "market perform" rating to an "outperform" rating and set a $355.00 price target for the company in a research note on Tuesday, January 6th. UBS Group increased their price target on shares of McDonald's from $350.00 to $365.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Thursday, February 12th. Finally, Citigroup increased their price target on shares of McDonald's from $371.00 to $375.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Thursday, February 12th. Sixteen equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, fifteen have assigned a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $340.93.

McDonald's Price Performance

Shares of McDonald's stock opened at $290.20 on Thursday. The company has a 50-day moving average of $314.95 and a 200 day moving average of $311.86. The firm has a market cap of $206.28 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.28, a PEG ratio of 2.68 and a beta of 0.53. McDonald's has a 1 year low of $283.47 and a 1 year high of $341.75.

McDonald's Dividend Announcement

The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Tuesday, March 17th. Investors of record on Tuesday, March 3rd were given a dividend of $1.86 per share. This represents a $7.44 annualized dividend and a yield of 2.6%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Tuesday, March 3rd. McDonald's's dividend payout ratio is 62.26%.

Insider Activity at McDonald's

In other news, CMO Edith Morgan Flatley sold 4,692 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Thursday, February 12th. The shares were sold at an average price of $331.00, for a total transaction of $1,553,052.00. Following the sale, the chief marketing officer owned 6,200 shares of the company's stock, valued at $2,052,200. This trade represents a 43.08% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the SEC, which is available through this link. Also, CEO Christopher J. Kempczinski sold 26,276 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Friday, February 13th. The shares were sold at an average price of $333.54, for a total transaction of $8,764,097.04. Following the sale, the chief executive officer directly owned 22,900 shares in the company, valued at approximately $7,638,066. The trade was a 53.43% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. In the last 90 days, insiders sold 71,990 shares of company stock worth $23,824,113. 0.26% of the stock is owned by insiders.

Institutional Trading of McDonald's

A number of institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in MCD. Brighton Jones LLC boosted its holdings in shares of McDonald's by 21.6% during the 4th quarter. Brighton Jones LLC now owns 9,286 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $2,692,000 after acquiring an additional 1,649 shares during the last quarter. Revolve Wealth Partners LLC boosted its holdings in shares of McDonald's by 2.8% during the 4th quarter. Revolve Wealth Partners LLC now owns 1,942 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $563,000 after acquiring an additional 52 shares during the last quarter. Sivia Capital Partners LLC boosted its holdings in shares of McDonald's by 11.4% during the 2nd quarter. Sivia Capital Partners LLC now owns 2,017 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $589,000 after acquiring an additional 206 shares during the last quarter. United Bank boosted its holdings in shares of McDonald's by 6.0% during the 2nd quarter. United Bank now owns 8,102 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $2,367,000 after acquiring an additional 459 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Schnieders Capital Management LLC. boosted its holdings in shares of McDonald's by 2.5% during the 2nd quarter. Schnieders Capital Management LLC. now owns 12,938 shares of the fast-food giant's stock valued at $3,780,000 after acquiring an additional 312 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 70.29% of the company's stock.

Key McDonald's News

Here are the key news stories impacting McDonald's this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Launch of premium drink lineup could lift ticket sizes and margins — McDonald’s will roll out six crafted beverages (refreshers, crafted sodas) starting May 6, a deliberate push to capture a larger share of the high-margin beverage category and compete with specialty chains. This supports higher average checks and incremental visits. McDonald's is the latest fast food chain to offer fancier drinks
• Positive Sentiment: Marketing & limited drops to drive traffic — Limited-edition promotions (Grimace Shake/all‑purple menu, themed drink carriers) produce social buzz and short-term traffic spikes, helping test new menu items and seasonal pricing. McDonald’s All-Purple Menu Is Bringing Back The Grimace Shake
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst support: BTIG reiterates buy with a $370 price target — an institutional voice signaling upside from current levels and confidence in long-term brand and cash flow strength. Benzinga coverage of BTIG rating
• Neutral Sentiment: QSR industry backdrop and market reports show long-term growth — reports (e.g., Canada foodservice forecast) point to structural demand for quick‑service channels, but also highlight cost and labor pressures that could offset gains. Canada Foodservice Market Report Forecast
• Neutral Sentiment: Competitor results: Chipotle sales beat — Chipotle’s revenue strength underscores continued consumer spending on off-premise and premium QSR offers; this is a reminder of competitive dynamics but not a direct McDonald’s earnings read. Chipotle Stock Jumps on Sales Beat
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst trims: Erste Group slightly lowered FY2026 and FY2027 EPS forecasts — modest cuts (FY26 to $13.20, FY27 to $14.35) and a "Hold" stance suggest cautious near-term profit expectations; the changes are small but add to short-term bearishness.
• Negative Sentiment: Customer reaction to new McValue menu is mixed — early reviews suggest the new value lineup may not meet consumer expectations, which could blunt traffic gains from promotions if broader uptake is weak. Why McDonald's New McValue Menu Is Not The Deal Customers Were Hoping For

McDonald's Company Profile

McDonald's Corporation NYSE: MCD is a global quick-service restaurant company best known for its hamburgers, French fries and breakfast offerings. The company develops, operates and franchises a system of restaurants that sell a range of food and beverage items, including signature products such as the Big Mac, Quarter Pounder, Chicken McNuggets, McCafé coffee beverages and a variety of salads, desserts and seasonal menu items. McDonald's serves customers through company-operated restaurants and franchised locations, and it supports sales via dine-in, drive-thru, digital ordering platforms and third-party delivery partnerships.

Founded in 1940 by brothers Richard and Maurice McDonald as a single San Bernardino, California restaurant, the business was transformed into a franchising model after Ray Kroc joined in the mid-1950s and led the brand's national and international expansion.

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