Needham & Company LLC Has Lowered Expectations for Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI) Stock Price

Key Points

• Needham cut its price target on Genius Sports from $16 to $14 while keeping a "buy" rating — analysts' average target is about $13.05, implying substantial upside versus the current ~$5.93 share price (Needham's target suggests ~136% upside).
• Genius reported Q4 revenue of $240.5M (up ~37% YoY) and gave FY2026 revenue guidance of $810–$820M, but it missed GAAP EPS (‑$0.08 vs. $0.02 expected) and remains unprofitable with negative margins, which spurred the recent share weakness.
• Institutional ownership is high (about 81.9%) with several large funds increasing stakes, yet the proposed Legend acquisition and ongoing profitability uncertainty present execution and integration risks for the stock.

Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI - Get Free Report) had its price objective lowered by stock analysts at Needham & Company LLC from $16.00 to $14.00 in a note issued to investors on Thursday,Benzinga reports. The firm currently has a "buy" rating on the stock. Needham & Company LLC's price target would suggest a potential upside of 136.29% from the stock's previous close.

A number of other equities analysts have also issued reports on GENI. Stifel Nicolaus cut their target price on shares of Genius Sports from $10.00 to $7.00 and set a "hold" rating on the stock in a report on Thursday, February 19th. Wells Fargo & Company reduced their price objective on Genius Sports from $16.00 to $10.00 and set an "overweight" rating for the company in a research note on Monday, February 9th. The Goldman Sachs Group upped their price target on Genius Sports from $14.00 to $16.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Thursday, December 4th. Oppenheimer dropped their price objective on shares of Genius Sports from $15.00 to $12.00 and set an "outperform" rating on the stock in a research note on Friday, February 6th. Finally, Benchmark reaffirmed a "buy" rating on shares of Genius Sports in a report on Friday, February 6th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, fourteen have assigned a Buy rating, two have given a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, the company has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $13.05.

Genius Sports Stock Down 1.9%

GENI stock traded down $0.12 during midday trading on Thursday, hitting $5.93. The company's stock had a trading volume of 648,634 shares, compared to its average volume of 6,564,877. The firm has a market capitalization of $1.28 billion, a P/E ratio of -12.62 and a beta of 1.91. Genius Sports has a 52-week low of $5.60 and a 52-week high of $13.73. The firm has a 50-day simple moving average of $8.46 and a 200-day simple moving average of $10.46.

Genius Sports (NYSE:GENI - Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Wednesday, March 4th. The company reported ($0.08) EPS for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $0.02 by ($0.10). Genius Sports had a negative return on equity of 14.39% and a negative net margin of 19.71%.The firm had revenue of $240.50 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $234.94 million. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted ($0.12) EPS. The business's revenue for the quarter was up 37.0% on a year-over-year basis. On average, sell-side analysts expect that Genius Sports will post -0.1 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in GENI. Wellington Management Group LLP increased its holdings in Genius Sports by 17.9% during the 3rd quarter. Wellington Management Group LLP now owns 13,513,537 shares of the company's stock valued at $167,298,000 after acquiring an additional 2,051,503 shares in the last quarter. Voss Capital LP grew its position in shares of Genius Sports by 35.4% in the fourth quarter. Voss Capital LP now owns 11,100,000 shares of the company's stock valued at $122,322,000 after purchasing an additional 2,900,000 shares during the last quarter. Senvest Management LLC increased its stake in shares of Genius Sports by 13.7% during the 4th quarter. Senvest Management LLC now owns 9,410,567 shares of the company's stock worth $103,704,000 after purchasing an additional 1,135,577 shares in the last quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC raised its position in shares of Genius Sports by 9.6% during the 2nd quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC now owns 9,191,865 shares of the company's stock worth $95,595,000 after purchasing an additional 806,233 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Hood River Capital Management LLC lifted its stake in Genius Sports by 3.3% in the 2nd quarter. Hood River Capital Management LLC now owns 6,811,333 shares of the company's stock valued at $70,838,000 after buying an additional 215,384 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 81.91% of the company's stock.

Key Headlines Impacting Genius Sports

Here are the key news stories impacting Genius Sports this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Revenue and EBITDA momentum — Genius reported sizable growth in 2025 (articles highlight ~31% revenue growth and a ~59% jump in EBITDA), which supports a path toward improved profitability. Genius Sports (GENI) Stock Rallies on 31% Revenue Surge and 59% EBITDA Jump in 2025
• Positive Sentiment: Revenue beat and upbeat FY2026 top-line guide — Q4 revenue of $240.5M topped estimates and management gave full-year revenue guidance of $810–$820M (slightly above consensus), which is a constructive signal for growth continuity. Genius Sports Reports Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results
• Positive Sentiment: Commercial expansion into adtech and broadcast partners — new adtech deployments (e.g., Magnite, NBC Sports RSNs) broaden monetization channels and could lift ad revenue and yield over time. Genius Sports adds adtech deployments with Magnite, NBC Sports RSNs
• Neutral Sentiment: Full transcripts and slide deck available for diligence — management commentary (earnings call/transcript and slide deck) contains detail on margins, Legend acquisition rationale, and customer wins for investors wanting to dig deeper. Genius Sports (GENI) Q4 2025 Earnings Transcript
• Negative Sentiment: EPS miss and market reaction — GAAP EPS of ($0.08) missed the $0.02 consensus, triggering selling despite the revenue beat; that earnings miss is the primary short-term catalyst for the share decline. Genius Sports stock falls over 5% on earnings miss despite revenue beat
• Negative Sentiment: Continued net loss and weak margins — the company still reported a net loss and negative margins/ROE (net margin ~-19.7%, ROE negative), meaning profitability is not yet secured and earnings volatility will remain a risk. Genius Sports reports revenue gains, net loss in latest earnings
• Negative Sentiment: Acquisition uncertainty — the proposed Legend acquisition is dividing the Street, adding execution and integration risk that could weigh on the stock until clearer outcomes are visible. Genius Sports earnings loom as Legend acquisition divides Street

About Genius Sports

Genius Sports is a global sports technology company that specializes in collecting, analyzing and distributing real-time sports data and video streams. The firm provides official data feeds, live video streaming solutions and digital engagement tools to sports leagues, federations, broadcasters and betting operators. By integrating data directly from sporting events through its network of field officials and proprietary technology, Genius Sports ensures accuracy and integrity for partners who rely on up-to-the-second information.

The company’s product suite includes a cloud-based platform for data capture and distribution, an integrity services offering designed to identify and mitigate match-fixing risks, and a suite of commercial products that power odds creation, in-game betting markets and fan engagement experiences.

This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to contact@marketbeat.com.