Nomad Foods Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• Nomad's full-year 2025 results were roughly in line with guidance: organic sales fell 1.9% and adjusted EBITDA declined 7.5%, while Q4 net revenues were EUR 773 million and adjusted EPS rose to EUR 0.43 partly due to a 9% reduction in diluted shares; gross margin compressed ~240 bps as inflation remained the main headwind.
• Management framed 2026 as a transition year and issued guidance calling for organic revenue down 2%–5%, constant-currency adjusted EBITDA down 5%–10%, and adjusted EPS of EUR 1.45–1.60, with Q1 expected to be the low point amid pricing negotiations and retailer disruption.
• New CEO Dominic Brisby is pursuing operational fixes and cost savings, including an efficiency program targeting EUR 200 million of cost removal over three years, while continuing cash returns—EUR 195.6 million of buybacks in 2025—and planning further open-market purchases.

Nomad Foods NYSE: NOMD reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results that management said were roughly in line with the updated outlook issued last August, while outlining what CEO Dominic Brisby described as a “pivotal year of strategic repositioning” in 2026.

Brisby, who joined the company in November and became CEO at the start of 2026, said the leadership team is moving “quickly and decisively” to address recent underperformance, while cautioning that improvement will “not be immediate” and that the company’s outlook reflects expected disruption from pricing actions and internal changes.

Fourth-quarter and full-year results

For full-year 2025, the company posted an organic sales decline of 1.9%, which management said was in line with its outlook. Adjusted EBITDA declined 7.5%, which CFO Ruben Baldew said was near the low end of guidance for a 5% to 7% decline, while adjusted EPS was EUR 1.66, within the company’s expected range.

In the fourth quarter, reported net revenues decreased 2.6% to EUR 773 million. Organic revenue declined 1.3%, with volume down 1.1% and price/mix down 0.2% due to unfavorable mix. Adjusted EBITDA declined 4.7% year over year to EUR 131 million, while adjusted EPS increased 2% to EUR 0.43, which Baldew attributed in part to a 9% year-over-year reduction in diluted shares outstanding.

On profitability, Baldew said adjusted gross margin compressed by 240 basis points in the quarter, improving from the prior quarter’s 410-basis-point decline. He said inflation remained the largest headwind, more than offsetting productivity gains and revenue growth management (RGM) benefits, though mix was less of a drag and there was “modestly more price contribution” in the fourth quarter.

Operating expenses fell in the quarter, with adjusted operating expenses down 15%. Advertising and promotion (A&P) spending declined double digits due largely to quarterly phasing, while overhead expenses fell by a mid-teens percentage, which management attributed to productivity savings, offsetting inflation and lower bonus accruals.

Category trends and market share

Brisby emphasized that the company sees strong foundational assets, including brand equities and market position. He said Nomad’s brands have the number-one leading brand awareness in its categories in 14 out of 15 markets, and in its top 25 core category/country combinations the company’s market share is 2.3 times larger on average than its next-largest branded competitor.

Management also pointed to category growth as a tailwind. Brisby said category growth slowed over the summer but accelerated to 2% in the fourth quarter across the company’s footprint, with full-year category growth of 2.3%, in line with the historical 2% to 3% range.

At the same time, Brisby highlighted ongoing market share pressure. He said Nomad’s value market share declined 30 basis points in 2025 and that, since 2021, the company has lost 190 basis points of value share, which he called “not acceptable,” particularly given the company’s leading brands. Volume share was unchanged in 2025, he said.

Management also noted a gap between shipments and consumer demand during 2025. Baldew said full-year organic revenue lagged retail sellout growth of 0.4% as the company began reducing inventory levels with the trade and cycled 2024 sales that were ahead of retail sellout. Brisby said retail sellout grew 0.4% for the year, including 0.7% in the fourth quarter, which he described as “not a horrible starting point.”

Inflation, pricing, and productivity

Both executives said input cost inflation weighed heavily on 2025 results. Baldew said gross margin drove most of the full-year EBITDA decline as the company absorbed nearly EUR 100 million of inflation with “very little pricing offsets.” He said the company chose early in 2025 to wait for the 2026 negotiation cycle to raise prices and had highlighted the resulting gross margin pressure.

Productivity initiatives were positioned as a key offset. Brisby said a previously announced efficiency program remains on track and that the company is confident it can meet or exceed a goal of removing EUR 200 million of costs over the next three years. Baldew added that cost of goods savings increased year over year in 2025 and offset more than half of inflation pressure, with another increase expected as the company works toward the EUR 200 million target.

Brisby also said the company will remain focused on free cash flow by improving working capital management and reducing non-recurring cash expenditures.

Capital return and cash flow commentary

Nomad continued to return cash to shareholders in 2025. Brisby said the company repurchased EUR 44.2 million of shares in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year repurchases to EUR 195.6 million. Baldew said the company ended the year with 142.4 million shares outstanding, down 9% from the end of 2024.

Baldew said adjusted free cash flow conversion was 73% for 2025. He noted that debt refinancing actions in the fourth quarter resulted in an incremental cash payment due to changes in interest payment schedules that had not been planned prior to the refinancing. He added that the refinancing provides increased flexibility and EPS benefits going forward. The company also ended the year with lower payables related to incentive compensation expense, which increased net working capital, and Baldew said the company does not expect these headwinds to recur in 2026.

For 2025, Baldew said Nomad repurchased EUR 95.6 million of shares and paid EUR 91.3 million of dividends, calling the combined return a 38% increase compared with 2024. He also said the company continued to repurchase a modest number of shares early in 2026 and declared a quarterly dividend of $0.17 last month.

2026 outlook framed as a transition year

Management issued initial 2026 guidance while emphasizing that the year will include disruption tied to pricing negotiations and internal changes. Baldew said the company has not concluded price negotiations and is seeing typical disruptions, including delays with some retailers and “retaliation” with a few others, which he expects to be temporary but negative for first-quarter results. He also cited December order acceleration ahead of announced price increases as another first-quarter headwind.

Baldew outlined additional uncertainties, including private label and competitive pricing actions, particularly in the fish portfolio where industry-wide costs have increased. He said there is risk of price gaps widening in the first half of the year, and the company is planning for volume declines due to price elasticity, while also planning targeted price and promotional investments in certain areas to remain competitive at the point of purchase.

The 2026 guidance includes:

• Organic revenue: down 2% to 5% for the year, with first-quarter performance expected to be below the low end of the range.
• Constant-currency adjusted EBITDA: down 5% to 10% for the year, with the first quarter expected to be the low point due to lower organic sales, lower gross margin, elevated inflation, and limited pricing benefit until the second quarter.
• Adjusted EPS: EUR 1.45 to EUR 1.60, down 4% to 13% year over year. At recent exchange rates, Baldew said this translates to $1.71 to $1.89.
• Adjusted free cash flow conversion: 90% or greater.

Baldew noted that EPS guidance assumes no additional share repurchases beyond what has already been completed in 2026 to date.

Brisby said the company’s issues are “more basic in nature” than portfolio problems, pointing to a need for greater speed, agility, focus, and accountability, as well as improved retailer relationships and in-store execution. He said the company is changing people, processes, and practices, and described a shift in how internal targets are set, combining bottom-up and top-down approaches. He said the prior two years’ goals were “too lofty,” leading to counterproductive short-term behavior, and that order patterns and inventory levels will be normalized, creating disruption in the first half of 2026.

Both Brisby and Baldew also said they intend to purchase a meaningful number of shares in the open market in the coming weeks, citing confidence in the company’s value creation potential.

About Nomad Foods NYSE: NOMD

Nomad Foods Limited is a leading frozen foods company headquartered in the United Kingdom, operating under the ticker symbol NOMD on the New York Stock Exchange. The company's portfolio comprises well-known consumer brands such as Birds Eye, iglo, Findus, Goodfella's and Aunt Bessie's, covering a wide range of categories including vegetables, seafood, ready meals, pizzas and desserts. Nomad Foods focuses on delivering convenient, high-quality frozen products designed to meet evolving consumer preferences for taste, nutrition and ease of preparation.

Formed in 2015 through the acquisition of Iglo Group by investment firms Permira and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Nomad Foods was created with the strategy of building Europe's largest frozen foods platform.

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