Northland Securities Weighs in on BigBear.ai FY2026 Earnings

Key Points

• Northland Securities cut its FY2026 EPS estimate for BigBear.ai to ($0.20) from ($0.17) and lowered Q4 2026 to ($0.04), signaling softer near‑term profitability expectations.
• Q1 results were mixed: BigBear.ai beat EPS (reported ($0.01) vs. ($0.05) est.) but missed revenue ($27.3M vs. $33.31M), with revenue down 37.7% YoY and a large net loss amid elevated R&D and go‑to‑market spending.
• Operational positives and market view: gross margin expanded to ~34% and backlog rose ~14% to $281.9M (including a $53M sole‑source award), but analyst ratings remain mixed (average "Hold") with a consensus target of $5.50.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI - Free Report) - Stock analysts at Northland Securities reduced their FY2026 EPS estimates for shares of BigBear.ai in a research note issued on Wednesday, May 6th. Northland Securities analyst M. Latimore now expects that the company will earn ($0.20) per share for the year, down from their previous forecast of ($0.17). The consensus estimate for BigBear.ai's current full-year earnings is ($0.30) per share. Northland Securities also issued estimates for BigBear.ai's Q4 2026 earnings at ($0.04) EPS.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Monday, March 2nd. The company reported ($0.01) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of ($0.05) by $0.04. The business had revenue of $27.30 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $33.31 million. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 226.69% and a negative return on equity of 16.02%. The firm's quarterly revenue was down 37.7% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company earned ($0.43) EPS.

Several other research analysts also recently issued reports on BBAI. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of BigBear.ai from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a research report on Saturday, January 10th. Weiss Ratings restated a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research report on Monday, April 20th. HC Wainwright cut their target price on shares of BigBear.ai from $8.00 to $6.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, March 3rd. Finally, Cantor Fitzgerald cut their target price on shares of BigBear.ai from $6.00 to $5.00 and set a "neutral" rating on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, March 3rd. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, one has assigned a Hold rating and one has given a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, BigBear.ai presently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $5.50.

BigBear.ai Stock Down 4.2%

Shares of NYSE BBAI opened at $4.19 on Friday. The firm's 50-day simple moving average is $3.77 and its 200 day simple moving average is $5.09. The company has a market cap of $2.00 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of -4.81 and a beta of 3.25. The company has a quick ratio of 1.78, a current ratio of 6.08 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01. BigBear.ai has a 12-month low of $3.01 and a 12-month high of $9.39.

Insider Transactions at BigBear.ai

In other BigBear.ai news, Director Pamela Joyce Braden sold 80,000 shares of the company's stock in a transaction dated Monday, March 16th. The shares were sold at an average price of $4.00, for a total transaction of $320,000.00. Following the transaction, the director directly owned 508,687 shares in the company, valued at approximately $2,034,748. This represents a 13.59% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through this hyperlink. Insiders own 0.54% of the company's stock.

Institutional Trading of BigBear.ai

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Cantor Fitzgerald L. P. bought a new stake in BigBear.ai during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $1,756,000. M&T Bank Corp bought a new stake in BigBear.ai during the 4th quarter worth approximately $5,576,000. PFG Investments LLC bought a new stake in BigBear.ai during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $1,593,000. Vanguard Group Inc. increased its stake in BigBear.ai by 32.6% during the 3rd quarter. Vanguard Group Inc. now owns 27,604,836 shares of the company's stock worth $179,984,000 after purchasing an additional 6,790,890 shares in the last quarter. Finally, UBS Group AG increased its stake in BigBear.ai by 145.7% during the 4th quarter. UBS Group AG now owns 10,386,833 shares of the company's stock worth $56,089,000 after purchasing an additional 6,158,665 shares in the last quarter. 7.55% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

BigBear.ai News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 margin expansion — Gross margin rose to 34%, helped by a larger mix of higher‑margin technology and Ask Sage generative AI revenue, improving the unit economics narrative for investors. BigBear.ai (BBAI) Is Up 14.4% After Stronger Margins And Backlog Growth - Has The Bull Case Changed?
• Positive Sentiment: Backlog and contract wins — Backlog rose ~14% to $281.9M, including a $53M sole‑source prime award, supporting revenue visibility for defense/national‑security work. BigBear.ai (BBAI) Is Up 14.4% After Stronger Margins And Backlog Growth - Has The Bull Case Changed?
• Positive Sentiment: Bullish research/upside targets — Several bullish pieces argue BBAI is an attractive, high‑volatility AI/defense growth play with material upside potential after the Q1 read. Prediction: BigBear.ai Could Jump Over 40% This Year
• Neutral Sentiment: Revenue and quarter overview — Revenue beat modestly at ~$34.4M but was roughly flat/ down slightly year‑over‑year; results are mixed — topline stability but not a clear growth inflection yet. BigBear.ai Q1 Earnings Match Estimates, Revenues Beat, Stock Down
• Negative Sentiment: Analyst cuts to EPS — Northland Securities reduced Q4 2026 and FY2026 EPS estimates (Q4 now ($0.04); FY now ($0.20)), signaling lower near‑term profitability expectations. BigBear.ai (BBAI) Free Report
• Negative Sentiment: Rising operating losses and expenses — Management is investing in R&D and go‑to‑market, which widened adjusted EBITDA losses and produced a large net loss (~$56.8M), offsetting some of the positive margin headlines and weighing on short‑term earnings prospects. BigBear.ai Q1 Earnings Match Estimates, Revenues Beat, Stock Down
• Negative Sentiment: Stock reaction was mixed — despite margin/backlog positives, some sellers pushed the stock lower after results, reflecting concern over cash burn and near‑term profitability. BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock Slides 5% Despite Strong Margin Expansion Following Q1 Results

About BigBear.ai

BigBear.ai is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics solutions designed to deliver actionable insights for public sector and commercial clients. Headquartered in Columbia, Maryland, the company specializes in advanced analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling and network analysis to support decision-making in complex, data-rich environments. Its clientele spans defense and intelligence agencies, civil government organizations and enterprise businesses seeking to enhance mission outcomes and operational efficiency.

The company’s flagship offerings include an AI-driven analytics platform that integrates data engineering, algorithm development and visualization tools.

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