Q4 Earnings Forecast for Geo Group Issued By Noble Financial

Key Points

• Noble Financial cut GEO Group’s Q4 2026 EPS forecast to $0.30 from $0.36 while maintaining an “Outperform” rating. The full-year consensus estimate is $1.31 per share.
• GEO Group’s latest quarterly results exceeded expectations, with EPS of $0.37 versus the $0.29 consensus and revenue of $732.1 million, up 15.1% year over year.
• Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, with a consensus “Buy” rating and a $40 price target. GEO shares opened at $31.73, near their 52-week high of $32.62, while institutional investors own 76.1% of the stock.

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO - Free Report) - Noble Financial reduced their Q4 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Geo Group in a research note issued on Monday, August 10th. Noble Financial analyst J. Gomes now expects that the real estate investment trust will earn $0.30 per share for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $0.36. Noble Financial currently has a "Outperform" rating on the stock. The consensus estimate for Geo Group's current full-year earnings is $1.31 per share.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 EPS for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $0.29 by $0.08. The company had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $721.43 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 10.42% and a net margin of 10.31%.The company's quarterly revenue was up 15.1% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same period last year, the company earned $0.22 earnings per share.

A number of other analysts also recently commented on GEO. Wall Street Zen downgraded shares of Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Saturday, July 25th. UBS Group reiterated an "outperform" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Monday. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a research note on Monday, July 20th. JonesTrading upped their target price on Geo Group from $33.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research report on Thursday, August 6th. Finally, Weiss Ratings raised Geo Group from a "hold (c)" rating to a "hold (c+)" rating in a research note on Tuesday, June 9th. One equities research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have given a Buy rating and one has assigned a Hold rating to the company's stock. According to MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of "Buy" and a consensus price target of $40.00.

Geo Group Stock Performance

Shares of GEO opened at $31.73 on Wednesday. The firm has a market capitalization of $4.24 billion, a PE ratio of 14.97, a P/E/G ratio of 1.68 and a beta of 0.79. The company has a quick ratio of 1.65, a current ratio of 1.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00. The firm has a 50-day moving average price of $29.58 and a 200 day moving average price of $21.93. Geo Group has a 52-week low of $12.51 and a 52-week high of $32.62.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Geo Group

Institutional investors and hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of the business. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. grew its stake in shares of Geo Group by 245.1% in the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares during the last quarter. Bessemer Group Inc. lifted its stake in Geo Group by 111.9% during the first quarter. Bessemer Group Inc. now owns 1,723 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $29,000 after purchasing an additional 910 shares during the last quarter. IFP Advisors Inc bought a new stake in Geo Group during the fourth quarter worth approximately $30,000. Global Retirement Partners LLC bought a new stake in Geo Group during the second quarter worth approximately $34,000. Finally, Bayforest Capital Ltd bought a new stake in Geo Group during the fourth quarter worth approximately $37,000. 76.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors and hedge funds.

Key Stories Impacting Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Noble Financial raised its earnings forecasts and maintained an “Outperform” rating. The firm increased its Q3 2026 EPS estimate to $0.35 from $0.31, FY2026 EPS to $1.31 from $1.24, and FY2027 EPS to $1.56 from $1.49. The FY2026 estimate is slightly above the broader $1.30 consensus, suggesting improving expectations for GEO’s profitability. Geo Group analyst estimate coverage
• Positive Sentiment: Momentum-focused investors continue to favor GEO. Zacks included the company in its Rank #1 “Strong Buy” momentum list, citing recent price strength. GEO was also included among stocks showing strong recent gains and earnings growth, which may attract additional short-term buying interest. Zacks momentum stocks article Zacks price strength article
• Positive Sentiment: Recent operating performance provides fundamental support. GEO’s latest reported quarter included EPS of $0.37 versus the $0.29 analyst estimate, while revenue rose 15.1% year over year to approximately $732 million. The earnings beat and higher forward estimates help explain the stock’s continued strength.

About Geo Group

The GEO Group NYSE: GEO is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO's integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO's portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.

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