Short Interest in American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL) Expands By 32.1%

Key Points

• Short interest jumped 32.1% in March to 74,492,898 shares (about 11.3% of the company’s shares), leaving a days‑to‑cover of roughly 1.2 days.
• Merger rumors—reports that United’s CEO raised a possible tie‑up with American—alongside unusually heavy call buying (~184k contracts) have lifted sentiment and increased short‑squeeze potential.
• Those market dynamics are tempered by weak fundamentals and analyst caution: AAL recently missed EPS, gave conservative FY‑2026 guidance, and carries a consensus Hold rating with a $14.97 target.

American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) was the target of a large increase in short interest in the month of March. As of March 31st, there was short interest totaling 74,492,898 shares, an increase of 32.1% from the March 15th total of 56,406,380 shares. Approximately 11.3% of the shares of the company are sold short. Based on an average daily volume of 61,795,718 shares, the days-to-cover ratio is presently 1.2 days.

More American Airlines Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Merger rumor lifted sentiment — Reports that United’s CEO discussed a possible megamerger with American in a high‑level White House meeting drove investor speculation that consolidation could boost AAL’s strategic value and trigger takeover chatter. Exclusive: United CEO Kirby raised potential tie‑up with American in Trump meeting
• Positive Sentiment: Unusually heavy call buying — Traders bought an elevated number of AAL call options (about 184k contracts), a bullish technical/flow signal that can amplify upward moves in the cash stock as speculative demand and dealer hedging push prices.
• Positive Sentiment: Short‑squeeze potential — AAL has been a high‑shorting name; merger rumors and rapid buying increase the chance of short covering accelerating gains in a thin‑float scenario. American Airlines (AAL) Market Overview
• Neutral Sentiment: Operational and ESG moves continue — American is expanding SAF partnerships and reopening routes (e.g., Caracas), underscoring ongoing network and sustainability initiatives that matter for medium‑term fundamentals but are not the main driver of today’s move. American Airlines Expands SAF Leadership While Reopening Key Venezuela Route
• Negative Sentiment: Strong antitrust risk — Regulators have historically blocked big airline combinations; analysts and consumer advocates warn a United‑American merger would face steep DOJ/FTC scrutiny, making a deal uncertain and regulatory risk a clear downside for any merger thesis. What a United‑American merger would mean, from antitrust hurdles to airfare
• Negative Sentiment: Weak quarterly fundamentals — Recent results showed an EPS miss and conservative guidance for FY‑2026; those fundamentals limit how much long‑term upside M&A talk can justify without clear financing/strategy. AAL quarterly results and guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Macro/energy risk — Jet‑fuel and geopolitical shocks remain a wildcard (recent jet‑fuel fears pressured airline shares), which could quickly reverse sentiment if fuel costs spike again. Airline stocks drop as fuel shortage fears intensify

Analyst Ratings Changes

AAL has been the subject of a number of recent research reports. TD Cowen reduced their price objective on American Airlines Group from $17.00 to $13.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a research note on Monday, March 9th. Rothschild & Co Redburn restated a "neutral" rating and issued a $12.50 price target (down from $17.00) on shares of American Airlines Group in a research report on Thursday, March 5th. Cantor Fitzgerald set a $17.00 price objective on American Airlines Group in a research note on Friday, January 30th. Argus raised American Airlines Group to a "hold" rating in a research report on Wednesday, January 28th. Finally, Bank of America boosted their price objective on American Airlines Group from $15.00 to $17.00 and gave the company a "neutral" rating in a research note on Tuesday, January 6th. Six analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, nine have issued a Hold rating and two have issued a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the company has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $14.97.

Institutional Trading of American Airlines Group

Several hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of AAL. Invesco Ltd. raised its position in American Airlines Group by 1.3% during the second quarter. Invesco Ltd. now owns 2,978,006 shares of the airline's stock valued at $33,413,000 after purchasing an additional 36,877 shares during the period. Brown Advisory Inc. boosted its holdings in shares of American Airlines Group by 42.6% in the 2nd quarter. Brown Advisory Inc. now owns 45,358 shares of the airline's stock worth $509,000 after purchasing an additional 13,539 shares during the period. California Public Employees Retirement System boosted its holdings in shares of American Airlines Group by 5.0% in the 2nd quarter. California Public Employees Retirement System now owns 1,164,443 shares of the airline's stock worth $13,065,000 after purchasing an additional 55,059 shares during the period. NewEdge Advisors LLC increased its position in shares of American Airlines Group by 6.6% during the 2nd quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 13,251 shares of the airline's stock valued at $149,000 after purchasing an additional 823 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Sei Investments Co. increased its position in shares of American Airlines Group by 34.4% during the 2nd quarter. Sei Investments Co. now owns 1,315,532 shares of the airline's stock valued at $14,760,000 after purchasing an additional 336,993 shares during the last quarter. 52.44% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

American Airlines Group Price Performance

AAL stock opened at $12.13 on Wednesday. American Airlines Group has a 1-year low of $8.96 and a 1-year high of $16.50. The business has a 50 day simple moving average of $12.13 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $13.24. The company has a market capitalization of $8.01 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 71.35 and a beta of 1.25.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Tuesday, January 27th. The airline reported $0.16 earnings per share for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.38 by ($0.22). The company had revenue of $14 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $14.12 billion. American Airlines Group had a net margin of 0.20% and a negative return on equity of 5.90%. The business's revenue was up 2.5% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the business posted $0.86 earnings per share. American Airlines Group has set its Q1 2026 guidance at -0.500--0.100 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 1.700-2.700 EPS. Sell-side analysts anticipate that American Airlines Group will post 2.42 EPS for the current fiscal year.

About American Airlines Group

American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world's largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.

The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.

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