Susquehanna Has Lowered Expectations for American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) Stock Price

Key Points

• Susquehanna cut its price target on American Airlines from $17 to $16 while keeping a "positive" rating, implying roughly a 33.9% upside from the company's current price.
• Fuel headwinds and guidance cut: AAL warned fuel costs could rise by about $4 billion and set FY2026 EPS guidance to -0.40 to -1.10 (Q2 -0.20 to 0.20), raising downside risk and the chance of a 2026 loss if prices persist.
• Mixed near-term results and analyst view: Q1 adjusted EPS beat (-$0.40 vs. -$0.45) despite revenue missing expectations, and analysts' consensus is a "Hold" with a $14.84 target amid varied buy/hold/sell ratings.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) had its target price cut by equities researchers at Susquehanna from $17.00 to $16.00 in a research note issued on Friday,Benzinga reports. The brokerage currently has a "positive" rating on the airline's stock. Susquehanna's price objective points to a potential upside of 33.86% from the company's current price.

AAL has been the subject of a number of other reports. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a "sell (d+)" rating on shares of American Airlines Group in a research note on Friday, March 27th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. lifted their target price on American Airlines Group from $20.00 to $22.00 and gave the company an "overweight" rating in a research report on Wednesday, January 28th. BMO Capital Markets reiterated a "market perform" rating and set a $17.00 price target on shares of American Airlines Group in a research note on Wednesday, January 28th. TD Cowen dropped their price objective on shares of American Airlines Group from $17.00 to $13.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a report on Monday, March 9th. Finally, Bank of America upped their target price on shares of American Airlines Group from $15.00 to $17.00 and gave the stock a "neutral" rating in a research note on Tuesday, January 6th. Six analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, nine have assigned a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $14.84.

American Airlines Group Trading Up 3.9%

AAL opened at $11.95 on Friday. American Airlines Group has a 12-month low of $9.21 and a 12-month high of $16.50. The company has a market capitalization of $7.91 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 69.29 and a beta of 1.25. The business's fifty day simple moving average is $11.77 and its 200-day simple moving average is $13.25.

American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL - Get Free Report) last posted its earnings results on Thursday, April 23rd. The airline reported ($0.40) EPS for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.45) by $0.05. The firm had revenue of $13.91 billion for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $16.13 billion. American Airlines Group had a negative return on equity of 5.90% and a net margin of 0.20%.The company's quarterly revenue was up 10.8% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period last year, the firm earned ($0.59) EPS. American Airlines Group has set its FY 2026 guidance at -0.400-1.100 EPS and its Q2 2026 guidance at -0.200-0.200 EPS. On average, equities research analysts predict that American Airlines Group will post -1.05 EPS for the current year.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in AAL. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC raised its holdings in shares of American Airlines Group by 21.8% in the 4th quarter. EverSource Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 4,276 shares of the airline's stock worth $66,000 after purchasing an additional 766 shares during the period. Arizona State Retirement System increased its position in American Airlines Group by 1.7% during the 3rd quarter. Arizona State Retirement System now owns 48,781 shares of the airline's stock worth $548,000 after purchasing an additional 811 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC lifted its position in American Airlines Group by 6.6% during the 2nd quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 13,251 shares of the airline's stock worth $149,000 after acquiring an additional 823 shares in the last quarter. Frank Rimerman Advisors LLC boosted its holdings in American Airlines Group by 4.5% in the 4th quarter. Frank Rimerman Advisors LLC now owns 22,346 shares of the airline's stock worth $343,000 after acquiring an additional 954 shares during the period. Finally, Fifth Third Wealth Advisors LLC grew its holdings in American Airlines Group by 4.9% during the 1st quarter. Fifth Third Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 20,631 shares of the airline's stock valued at $222,000 after purchasing an additional 966 shares in the last quarter. Institutional investors and hedge funds own 52.44% of the company's stock.

Key American Airlines Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting American Airlines Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 results beat the loss estimate: AAL reported an adjusted EPS loss of ($0.40) vs. consensus around ($0.45) and revenue rose year‑over‑year, which investors viewed as evidence demand remains strong despite headwinds. American Airlines shares take off on narrower-than-expected loss, revenue beat
• Positive Sentiment: Management said premium and overall demand remained strong even after fare increases to offset fuel — suggesting pricing power and unit revenue resilience going into summer travel. American Airlines Finds Fuel Price Spikes Won't Stop Premium Travelers
• Positive Sentiment: Talks to deepen a partnership with Alaska Air could broaden AAL's international footprint (transatlantic/transpacific joint business access) without the regulatory risk of a merger. Investors may see this as a lower‑risk way to expand revenue opportunities. American Airlines, Alaska Air explore deeper international partnership, sources say
• Neutral Sentiment: Management publicly dismissed a potential merger with United as anti‑competitive; this preserves AAL’s standalone strategic path but has limited immediate financial impact. American Airlines CEO says merger with United would be 'bad for customers'
• Neutral Sentiment: Brand/amenity expansion: AAL is opening a very large Nashville lounge designed to enhance premium customer experience — positive for brand and loyalty over the medium term but immaterial to near‑term earnings. American Airlines' massive new airport lounge will be the biggest in Nashville
• Negative Sentiment: Guidance cut and large fuel headwind: AAL warned fuel costs will rise by roughly $4 billion, updated FY2026 EPS guidance to -0.40 to -1.10 (wider and worse than consensus) and set Q2 guidance of -0.20 to 0.20, which is softer than Street expectations — this materially raises 2026 downside risk. American Airlines Cuts Profit Outlook After Fuel Prices Soar
• Negative Sentiment: Macro/geopolitical fuel risk remains a core downside: management cited Iran‑related disruptions contributing to higher jet fuel, and analysts flagged the possibility AAL could lose money in 2026 if prices persist. That headline risk keeps multiples and sentiment pressured. Airline Stock Brushes Off Lowered Full-Year Outlook

About American Airlines Group

American Airlines Group Inc is a leading global airline holding company headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas. Formed in December 2013 through the merger of AMR Corporation (parent of American Airlines) and US Airways Group, the company operates one of the world's largest passenger and cargo networks. Its subsidiaries include American Airlines, which provides mainline service, and American Eagle, a network of regional carriers operating short- and medium-haul routes on behalf of the mainline carrier.

The company offers scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo to more than 350 destinations in over 50 countries.

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