What Cheniere Energy (LNG) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Key Points

• Cheniere raised its 2026 guidance for the third consecutive quarter, forecasting adjusted EBITDA of $8.75 billion–$9.25 billion and distributable cash flow of $6.05 billion–$6.55 billion. Third-quarter results included approximately $1.9 billion in adjusted EBITDA, $1.2 billion in distributable cash flow and a record 188 LNG cargoes exported.
• The company signed long-term LNG agreements with Petrobras and QatarEnergy totaling about 5 million tonnes per annum, supporting planned brownfield expansions at Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. The Midscale Trains 8 & 9 project was more than 58% complete, while Cheniere expects a final investment decision on the first phase of its Sabine Pass expansion around year-end.
• Global LNG markets remain tight, with constrained Strait of Hormuz traffic, elevated European and Asian prices, and Europe’s storage at its lowest October level since 2011. Cheniere also repurchased about $730 million of shares in the quarter and raised its dividend by more than 12% to $0.625 per share.

Cheniere Energy NYSE: LNG raised its 2026 financial guidance for a third consecutive quarter as elevated global LNG prices, higher production and new capacity at its Corpus Christi Stage 3 project supported third-quarter results.

The company reported third-quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA of approximately $1.9 billion, distributable cash flow of approximately $1.2 billion and net income of approximately $1.2 billion. Cheniere produced and exported a quarterly record 188 LNG cargoes, or 684 TBtu, representing an approximately 17% increase from the year-earlier period.

Chairman, President and CEO Jack Fusco said market conditions remained volatile and supply constrained amid the continuing conflict in the Middle East and uneven LNG tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. He said spot-market pricing signaled a need for additional LNG supply.

Guidance Raised as Margins Improve

Cheniere lifted its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to $8.75 billion to $9.25 billion and its distributable cash flow forecast to $6.05 billion to $6.55 billion. The company maintained its expected production range of 53 million to 54 million tonnes for the year.

CFO Zach Davis said the revised guidance reflected stronger global gas spreads, earlier-than-expected completion of Train 7 at Corpus Christi Stage 3, high-margin cargo timing and optimization activity. He noted that LNG netbacks for the balance of 2026 had moved from more than $10 per MMBtu in August to more than $20 per MMBtu at the time of the call.

“Compared to the initial 2026 guidance provided in February, we have raised the midpoint of EBITDA guidance by $2 billion,” Davis said.

For 2027, Cheniere expects total production of approximately 56 million to 58 million tonnes across Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi, including planned maintenance. The company expects about 52 million tonnes of volume to be sold under long-term contracts next year, with approximately 5 million tonnes of spot volume available for its marketing business. As of the call, approximately 1 million tonnes, or 50 TBtu, of 2027 capacity remained unsold.

Davis said a $1 change in market margins would have an approximately $50 million impact on full-year 2027 EBITDA based on the company’s current exposure.

New Contracts and Brownfield Expansion Progress

Cheniere announced long-term sale and purchase agreements with Petrobras and QatarEnergy totaling approximately 5 million tonnes per annum. The Petrobras agreement covers 0.8 million tonnes per annum for 22 years, while the QatarEnergy agreements cover up to 4 million tonnes through 2054.

Fusco said the contracts are expected to support the company’s brownfield growth plans at both Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi. He described QatarEnergy’s agreement as part of the buyer’s strategy to diversify its LNG portfolio following disruptions associated with the Gulf War in Iran.

The company said its Midscale Trains 8 & 9 and debottlenecking project was more than 58% complete at the end of September and remained ahead of schedule. However, Cheniere does not currently forecast volume contributions from that project during 2027.

Cheniere is also approaching a final investment decision on the first phase of its Sabine Pass expansion, which is expected to add more than 6 million tonnes per annum of capacity. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issued a final environmental impact statement for the project in September, and Cheniere expects final approval around year-end, followed quickly by an FID.

The company has secured commitments for a $3.25 billion senior secured delayed-draw term loan to finance approximately half of the estimated cost of the first Sabine Pass expansion phase. The balance is expected to be funded through cash flows from Sabine Pass operations.

At Corpus Christi, Cheniere received a draft environmental impact statement from FERC in September for the first phase of its expansion project. The company expects a FERC permit around the middle of 2027 and said the timeline for required approvals around year-end 2027 remains intact.

Shareholder Returns and Balance Sheet

During the third quarter, Cheniere deployed approximately $1.5 billion under its capital allocation plan, including the repurchase of approximately 2.8 million shares for about $730 million. Year to date, the company has repurchased more than 8 million shares and deployed more than $2 billion toward buybacks.

Cheniere also increased its quarterly dividend by more than 12% to $0.625 per share, or $2.50 on an annualized basis. Davis said the company remains committed to increasing its dividend by at least 10% annually through the end of the decade.

Separately, S&P upgraded Corpus Christi Holdings to A-, which Davis said marked the first A-grade credit rating across the Cheniere complex.

Global Market Remains Tight

Chief Commercial Officer Anatol Feygin said global LNG supply growth turned negative during the third quarter as constrained Strait of Hormuz flows more than offset production increases elsewhere. He said TTF and JKM averaged more than $21 and $22 per MMBtu, respectively, during the quarter.

Feygin said Europe entered October with storage approximately 72% full, its lowest level for that date since 2011. He estimated that Europe would require approximately 69 million tonnes of LNG during the winter under the company’s base case, about 7% more than the prior winter.

While China’s LNG imports are expected to decline for a second straight year to roughly 60 million tonnes, Feygin said demand across South and Southeast Asia had remained resilient despite higher prices. He said longer-term Henry Hub-linked cargoes were loading at roughly $6 per MMBtu, compared with spot prices that had at times exceeded $30 per MMBtu.

About Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG)

Cheniere Energy, Inc is an energy infrastructure company engaged primarily in the production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The company purchases natural gas, processes it through liquefaction facilities, and delivers LNG to customers in international energy markets. Its operations also include natural gas procurement, transportation, storage, and LNG marketing.

Cheniere operates the Sabine Pass LNG facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, and the Corpus Christi LNG facility near Corpus Christi, Texas.

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