What Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

Key Points

• Kaspi.kz cut its full-year GMV growth forecast to about 12% from 20% in constant currency, as the stronger tenge lowered prices on imported marketplace goods. It maintained its forecast for approximately 5% EBITDA growth.
• Third-quarter revenue rose 18% in constant currency, but EBITDA increased just 1% amid higher funding costs and investment in Türkiye. The company expects funding costs to ease in the fourth quarter, with a larger benefit next year as deposits reprice.
• Kaspi.kz plans to expand its grocery-store partnership, targeting 300 stores across nine cities next year, and said its AI assistant has attracted 1.4 million users. The board also approved a KZT 1,000 dividend, subject to shareholder approval.

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz NASDAQ: KSPI lowered its full-year gross merchandise value growth forecast after a stronger Kazakhstani tenge reduced prices on its marketplace, while maintaining its outlook for earnings growth as it expects funding costs to ease.

The company now expects full-year GMV growth of around 12% in constant currency, down from its previous forecast of 20%, Head of Investor Relations David Ferguson said on its third-quarter and nine-month 2026 earnings call. Kaspi.kz maintained its forecast for approximately 5% EBITDA growth.

Third-quarter revenue rose 18% year over year in constant currency, while EBITDA increased 1%. Ferguson said profitability was affected by higher funding costs and continued investment in Türkiye. Net income growth turned slightly positive for the first time in a long time, he said.

Kaspi.kz’s board approved a dividend of KZT 1,000, subject to shareholder approval, CEO Mikheil Lomtadze said.

Stronger Tenge Weighs on GMV

Ferguson attributed the lower GMV forecast to smaller transaction sizes resulting from the tenge’s appreciation. Many items sold on Kaspi.kz’s Kazakhstan marketplace are imported, and merchants have passed some of their lower purchasing costs on to consumers, he said.

In Kazakhstan, the number of e-commerce items sold rose 24% year over year in the third quarter, while their prices fell 8%, Ferguson said. Prices declined 17% in sports and travel and 15% in electronics.

Across Kazakhstan and Türkiye, e-commerce GMV grew 17% in constant currency, supported by a 16% increase in the number of purchases. The e-commerce take rate rose to 16.3% from 14.2% a year earlier, driven by growth in advertising and delivery services.

For the broader Marketplace segment, which also includes primarily mobile commerce and travel, constant-currency GMV grew 8% and revenue increased 20%. The segment’s EBITDA margin rose to 26% from about 21% a year earlier, Ferguson said.

Payments total payment volume increased 14% in constant currency, while the loan portfolio grew about 14%. The company’s full-year guidance calls for growth of around 15% for each measure.

Funding Costs and Türkiye Investment

Fintech revenue grew 19% in the quarter, outpacing loan portfolio growth as longer-duration loans generated revenue for longer, Ferguson said. Fintech EBITDA was flat, however, as funding costs rose and deposits grew faster than the loan portfolio.

Kaspi.kz lowered the rate on a three-month deposit product by 100 basis points in August and another 100 basis points in October. Ferguson said the company expects a lower cost of funding in the fourth quarter, with a larger benefit next year as deposits reprice. Lomtadze said the product accounts for roughly one-third of savings.

Ferguson also expects investment in Türkiye to fall significantly in 2027. In the meantime, Kaspi.kz is expanding financial products on Turkish e-commerce platform Hepsiburada. Lomtadze said its Hepsicredit shopping loan and buy-now-pay-later product supported 8% of smartphone GMV in October. More consumer and merchant fintech products are planned for 2027, he said.

Grocery Stores and AI Assistant

Kaspi.kz is preparing to expand a neighborhood grocery partnership after piloting 42 stores in Almaty. Under the model, the company converts independent stores to its standards and supplies them using its existing dark-store infrastructure, while partners handle daily operations.

Lomtadze said the pilot achieved an approximately 15% EBITDA margin, including expenses and the fee paid to partners. Partners receive roughly 7% of store turnover. The company’s medium-term aspiration is to reach 3,000 stores.

Lomtadze initially referred to a plan for 300 stores by year-end, but later said the company planned to have 300 stores across nine cities next year. Ferguson also described the target as 300 stores by the end of next year and estimated capital spending for the expansion at just under $60 million, funded from cash flow.

The store network could also support faster grocery delivery. Lomtadze said Kaspi.kz was testing delivery within 30 minutes in November.

Separately, the company’s AI assistant, Kasper, launched in July and has been used by 1.4 million consumers, Lomtadze said. He said its conversion rate was 1.5 times that of traditional text search, while average GMV per order was twice as high. A next-generation version with visual search and more personalized context is planned for later this year.

About Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (NASDAQ:KSPI)

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is a Kazakhstan-based technology and financial services company that operates a digital ecosystem through its Kaspi.kz super app. Its services connect consumers, merchants and financial institutions across everyday shopping and financial activities.

The company's offerings include an online marketplace, digital payments and financial products such as consumer loans, deposits and merchant services. It also provides services such as travel booking through its platform.

Kaspi.kz serves customers and businesses primarily in Kazakhstan.

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