Vistra (NYSE:VST) Posts Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Estimates By $1.55 EPS

Key Points

• Vistra beat Q1 expectations, reporting adjusted EPS of $2.87 versus the $1.32 consensus and revenue of $5.64 billion versus estimates of $5.22 billion.
• The company highlighted record adjusted EBITDA of about $1.5 billion in the quarter and reaffirmed its 2026 guidance, while pointing to a strong operating backdrop with nuclear and gas fleet performance.
• Vistra also outlined major growth and capital-return moves, including the 5,500 MW Cogentrix acquisition, long-term PPAs with Meta, and roughly $600 million returned to shareholders year to date through buybacks and dividends.

Vistra (NYSE:VST - Get Free Report) issued its earnings results on Thursday. The company reported $2.87 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $1.32 by $1.55, FiscalAI reports. Vistra had a net margin of 11.52% and a return on equity of 111.30%. The business had revenue of $5.64 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.22 billion.

Here are the key takeaways from Vistra's conference call:

• Vistra reported approximately $1.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA in Q1 2026 (a Q1 record), with strong fleet performance (nuclear 100% availability, gas 97%) and management reaffirming 2026 guidance and the 2027 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity.
• The company announced the 5,500 MW Cogentrix natural gas acquisition and long‑term PPAs with Meta for ~2,600 MW at PJM nuclear sites; current guidance excludes these items and Cogentrix is expected to close in H2 2026, after which guidance will be updated.
• Capital allocation and returns were accelerated — ~$525 million of share repurchases in the first four months plus ~$75 million dividend (≈$600M returned YTD), ~ $1.475B buyback authorization remaining, and management projects > $10 billion cash generation across 2026–2027 with targeted allocations to shareholder returns (~$3B) and growth (~$4B).
• Management reiterated a structural demand thesis (ERCOT 5–6% CAGR, PJM 2–3%) and a ~4,500 MW organic development pipeline (renewables, coal‑to‑gas conversions, Permian gas builds, nuclear uprates) and plans to use co‑location and bridge‑power solutions to serve hyperscalers, but outcomes depend on interconnection timing and evolving market/regulatory rules.
• Credit/financial flexibility improved after a Fitch upgrade to investment grade (joining S&P), which triggered fallaway provisions and the release of certain liens, strengthening Vistra’s ability to pursue growth and capital returns.

Vistra Stock Performance

Shares of NYSE:VST traded down $6.15 during trading on Friday, reaching $147.80. 8,051,627 shares of the stock were exchanged, compared to its average volume of 4,164,317. Vistra has a 12 month low of $133.73 and a 12 month high of $219.82. The stock has a 50-day moving average price of $159.25 and a 200-day moving average price of $166.57. The company has a current ratio of 0.78, a quick ratio of 0.69 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 6.01. The firm has a market cap of $50.04 billion, a PE ratio of 68.11, a PEG ratio of 0.89 and a beta of 1.43.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The company also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Tuesday, June 30th. Stockholders of record on Monday, June 22nd will be issued a dividend of $0.229 per share. This is a boost from Vistra's previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. This represents a $0.92 dividend on an annualized basis and a dividend yield of 0.6%. The ex-dividend date is Monday, June 22nd. Vistra's dividend payout ratio is presently 41.94%.

Insider Buying and Selling at Vistra

In related news, EVP Stephanie Zapata Moore sold 10,000 shares of Vistra stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, March 9th. The stock was sold at an average price of $160.31, for a total transaction of $1,603,100.00. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 114,409 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $18,340,906.79. This trade represents a 8.04% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the SEC, which is accessible through the SEC website. Company insiders own 0.92% of the company's stock.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Several large investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the company. Mcguire Capital Advisors Inc. acquired a new position in shares of Vistra in the fourth quarter valued at about $28,000. Kemnay Advisory Services Inc. acquired a new stake in Vistra in the 4th quarter worth about $30,000. Strive Financial Group LLC bought a new stake in Vistra in the 4th quarter valued at about $33,000. IFC & Insurance Marketing Inc. acquired a new position in shares of Vistra during the 4th quarter worth approximately $35,000. Finally, Strive Asset Management LLC acquired a new position in shares of Vistra during the 3rd quarter worth approximately $38,000. Institutional investors own 90.88% of the company's stock.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

A number of research analysts have recently commented on VST shares. Weiss Ratings reissued a "hold (c)" rating on shares of Vistra in a research report on Friday, March 27th. Bank of America cut their target price on shares of Vistra from $231.00 to $218.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a research note on Monday, January 12th. Raymond James Financial set a $208.00 price target on Vistra in a research report on Monday, April 27th. UBS Group boosted their price target on Vistra from $230.00 to $233.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research report on Monday, January 12th. Finally, Scotiabank increased their price target on Vistra from $287.00 to $293.00 and gave the company an "outperform" rating in a research note on Monday, January 12th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, thirteen have assigned a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company presently has a consensus rating of "Buy" and an average target price of $233.93.

Vistra News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Vistra reported first-quarter EPS of $2.90, well above expectations, and revenue of $5.64 billion versus estimates of $5.22 billion, showing strong operating momentum. Conference Call / Earnings Report
• Positive Sentiment: The company swung to a quarterly profit as rising power demand and higher prices boosted results, reinforcing the bullish demand backdrop for its electricity business. Reuters Article
• Positive Sentiment: Vistra reaffirmed its 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, signaling management confidence in the outlook despite market volatility. Press Release
• Positive Sentiment: The company also received an investment-grade credit rating upgrade from a second major agency, which can improve financing flexibility and support valuation. Press Release
• Neutral Sentiment: Analysts continue to hold a consensus “Buy” rating on Vistra, suggesting Wall Street remains constructive but not necessarily surprised by the longer-term story. Analyst Rating Article
• Neutral Sentiment: Several commentary pieces focused on whether Vistra’s strong multi-year run leaves room for further upside, which may temper enthusiasm even after the earnings beat. Valuation Commentary

About Vistra

Vistra NYSE: VST is an integrated power company that develops, owns and operates electricity generation and retail businesses in the United States. The company's operations span wholesale power production—through a diversified fleet of thermal and lower‑carbon generation assets—and retail electricity supply to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Vistra serves organized wholesale markets and competitive retail markets, with a notable presence in Texas and other regional U.S. power markets.

Vistra's core activities include the ownership and operation of generation facilities, the commercial dispatch and optimization of those assets into wholesale markets, and the sale of electricity and related services to end-use customers through its retail brands.

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