YPF Sociedad Anonima Q4 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• YPF delivered a record-high EBITDA of $5.0 billion in 2025 despite a ~15% drop in Brent, with adjusted EBITDA up 8%, Q4 adjusted EBITDA near $1.3 billion, and Q4 free cash flow returning to $261 million.
• The company is shifting toward Vaca Muerta shale—shale oil averaged 165,000 bpd in 2025 (up 35%) and exceeded 200,000 bpd in December—boosting reserves (1P +17%) and cutting lifting costs to $11.6/BOE in 2025 (below $8/BOE pro forma).
• YPF formalized an LNG development with partners targeting an initial ~6 mtpa (CapEx ~$2B) and a potential larger 12 mtpa phase (CapEx ~$20B), while guiding 2026 to ~215,000 bpd shale output, adjusted EBITDA of $5.8–6.2 billion, CapEx of $5.5–5.8 billion, and neutral-to-slightly-negative free cash flow.

YPF Sociedad Anonima NYSE: YPF executives said 2025 marked a “transformational” year, pointing to record operating metrics, progress in shifting the portfolio toward Vaca Muerta shale, and early steps toward a large-scale LNG export initiative. Management also provided 2026 guidance that anticipates higher shale oil output and higher adjusted EBITDA, while free cash flow is expected to be neutral to slightly negative depending on capital spending, infrastructure contributions, and divestment proceeds.

2025 results: record EBITDA despite weaker Brent

Chairman and CEO Horacio Marín said YPF delivered a record-high EBITDA of $5.0 billion in 2025, which he described as the highest in 10 years and the third largest in the company’s history. Management attributed the performance to record shale oil production, integration benefits, and cost reductions, even as Brent prices declined about 15% during the year.

Revenue for 2025 totaled $18.4 billion, down 4% year-over-year, which the company said largely reflected lower crude prices, partially offset by higher shale production and record processing levels. Adjusted EBITDA increased 8%, with EBITDA margin rising to 27% from 24% in 2024.

Fourth-quarter performance was highlighted as particularly strong. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of nearly $1.3 billion in Q4, which management said represented 53% internal growth. Free cash flow in Q4 returned to positive territory at $261 million, driven mainly by a $200 million collection from the partial sale of its 50% stake in Profertil and operating performance.

Upstream: shale growth offsets conventional decline, lifting costs fall

Management emphasized rapid shale oil growth in Vaca Muerta alongside an ongoing exit from conventional mature fields. Strategy, New Businesses and Controlling VP Maximiliano Westen said shale oil output averaged 165,000 barrels per day in 2025, up 35%, and accelerated to 196,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. By December, YPF produced over 200,000 barrels per day of shale oil, and Marín said December production reached 204,000 barrels per day, exceeding the company’s 190,000 barrels per day target.

Conventional oil production averaged 90,000 barrels per day in 2025, down 32% versus 2024, and fell further in Q4 to 68,000 barrels per day (excluding divested assets). The shift in the production mix and divestments contributed to lower costs: lifting costs declined 26% to $11.6 per BOE in 2025, and dropped 44% year-over-year to $9.6 per BOE in Q4. On a pro forma basis excluding recently divested conventional assets, management said lifting costs would have been below $8 per BOE.

Natural gas production averaged 36.2 million cubic meters per day in 2025, down 3% year-over-year, which management attributed mainly to the mature-field exit program, partially offset by a 14% increase in shale gas production.

Westen also discussed reserves, stating that total 1P reserves under SEC criteria grew 17% in 2025, driven by a 32% increase in Vaca Muerta shale reserves. Vaca Muerta represented 88% of total proved reserves, and the company reported a reserve replacement ratio of 3.2x with a reserve life of nine years.

Downstream: record utilization and margins

YPF reported strong operational performance in refining. Westen said processing levels averaged 320,000 barrels per day in 2025, up 6%, with refinery utilization at 95%. In Q4, the company processed 335,000 barrels per day, a 15-year record, with utilization at 99%. Management also noted that the company subsequently reached 352,000 barrels per day, which it described as 104% utilization.

Downstream profitability benefited from high utilization, crack spreads, and cost discipline. The midstream and downstream adjusted EBITDA margin was $17.2 per barrel in 2025 and increased to $22.6 per barrel in Q4. The company said domestic gasoline and diesel dispatch volumes grew 3% and 5%, respectively, and it maintained a 56% market share (or 60% including third-party stations dispatching YPF-produced fuels). Management said local fuel prices were broadly aligned with international levels, averaging a 3% discount in 2025 and standing 1% above import parity “last month.”

M&A, divestments, and balance sheet actions

Executives described 2025 as a highly active year for acquisitions and asset sales, aligned with the company’s strategy of securing Tier 1 shale blocks while exiting mature conventional assets. Marín said YPF acquired three Vaca Muerta blocks—Sierra Chata, La Escalonada, and Rincón de la Ceniza—and also completed other targeted transactions, including a stake in Profertil and a conventional field.

On divestments, management highlighted the sale of its 50% stake in Profertil for $635 million and, more recently, the sale of the Manantiales Behr conventional field for approximately $410 million plus a $40 million earn-out. Marín said transactions are expected to generate nearly $1 billion in proceeds, with around $750 million expected to be collected during December 2025 and 2026.

On financing, Finance VP Pedro Kearney said the company raised $3.7 billion in 2025, including $1.6 billion in international capital markets and $1.4 billion through local bond issuances. He highlighted a recent re-tap of the 2034 bond that added $550 million at an 8.1% yield, which he described as the lowest rate YPF has achieved in international markets in nine years. The company ended 2025 with about $1.2 billion in cash and short-term investments and a net leverage ratio of 1.9x.

LNG project and 2026 guidance

Management provided updates on Argentina LNG. Marín said YPF and its “foundational” partners—Eni and XRG (an ADNOC-owned platform)—formalized the project structure through a joint development agreement. The company described a first phase (Southern Energy/SESA tolling), where YPF holds a 25% stake, targeting roughly 6 million tons per year using two floating LNG units and a dedicated pipeline, with total CapEx around $2 billion and expected start-up between 2027 and 2028. For a larger integrated phase, YPF discussed 12 million tons per year (two floating LNG units), estimated CapEx (excluding upstream) of roughly $20 billion including financial costs, targeted FID in 2026, and expected commercial operation of the first and second floating units in 2030 and 2031, respectively. Marín also said the company is evaluating the possibility of adding a third floating LNG unit for an additional 7 million tons per year, with a potential FID in 2027 or 2028 and COD by 2032.

For 2026, YPF guided to shale oil production of about 215,000 barrels per day on average, with an exit rate around 250,000 barrels per day. Marín told analysts that production in the first half is expected to be roughly 200,000–210,000 barrels per day, with a larger increase in the second half tied to evacuation capacity and facility completions. Adjusted EBITDA guidance was $5.8 billion to $6.2 billion assuming average Brent of $63 per barrel. The company expects 2026 CapEx of $5.5 billion to $5.8 billion, with nearly 70% allocated to shale.

On free cash flow, management forecast a neutral to slightly negative outcome for 2026. Kearney outlined a framework assuming roughly $6 billion of EBITDA, CapEx of $5.7 billion, interest payments around $800 million, taxes of about $200 million, and infrastructure contributions around $300 million, with M&A collections—including a planned sale of the company’s 70% stake in Metrogas—expected to offset the cash outflows. The company guided to net leverage of 1.6x to 1.7x by the end of 2026.

About YPF Sociedad Anonima NYSE: YPF

YPF Sociedad Anónima NYSE: YPF is an integrated oil and gas company headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The company's primary businesses encompass upstream exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas, midstream transportation and storage, and downstream refining and distribution. YPF operates several major refineries and a nationwide network of service stations, supplying fuels, lubricants, and petrochemical products to both retail and industrial customers.

Founded in 1922 as Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales, YPF was the world's first state‐owned oil company.

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