3 Huge S&P 500 Winners From Trump Trade Deal & The Biggest Loser

Key Points

• The Trump administration announced on May 12 that it reached a trade deal with China, providing a sense that trade-related chaos is de-escalating. 
• Markets rose significantly after the announcement of the deal. However, not every stock was a winner.
• See which names had the best and worst days and why.

The Trump administration just announced a massive trade deal between the United States and China, leaving markets elated. The United States agreed to lower its tariffs on China to 30% from 145% for 90 days. China will also decrease its tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days. Although these tariff reductions are temporary for now, this news is very welcome for global trade. It provides a much stronger pathway toward tariffs coming down permanently.

The S&P 500 Index rose over 3% on Monday after news of the deal broke. This move now puts the index very close to being back in the green in 2025, with a total return of approximately -1%. A good handful of stocks in the index saw double-digit single-day percentage gains. However, not all stocks benefited. Approximately 80% of S&P 500 stocks rose on Monday, while the other 20% saw shares decline.

So, who were some of the biggest winners from the trade deal news? Additionally, which big name saw the largest decline in shares as a result?

SWK: Tool Maker with Significant China Exposure Finds Relief

One of the biggest winners from the trade deal was Stanley Black & Decker NYSE: SWK. Shares rose almost 16% on May 12. This is because a significant amount of the company’s supply chain is in China. On the firm’s Apr. 30 earnings call, the company noted that 15% of its supply chain for products sold in the United States is in China. Even after mitigation efforts, it expected trade policy to negatively impact its adjusted earnings per share by $0.75. This accounts for a very substantial 16% of the total adjusted EPS the firm generated over the last 12 months.

Now, the company is likely to see a significantly smaller negative impact on its earnings, which is the reason for the huge positive up move. Even with this tariff news, Stanley Black and Decker is unlikely to stand still. The company has been pursuing a long-term plan to reduce its U.S. sales exposure to China.

In Trump's first term, 40% of the company’s U.S. sales came from its Chinese supply chain. The company has said it plans to reduce that figure to almost 0% over the coming years, from the 15% now. The company would be smart to continue on this path, considering the trade situation could easily worsen again.

Two Chip Stocks Notch Double Digit Up Days

Two semiconductor stocks in particular were also big winners. Monolithic Power Systems NASDAQ: MPWR saw shares rise by over 11%, while Microchip Technology NASDAQ: MCHP was up over 10%. This big move makes sense for Monolithic, considering that 37% of its sales come from China. Still, the company emphasized in its last earnings call that it wasn’t forecasting any significant impact on its business due to tariffs.

Monolithic noted that the portion of its supply chain in China creates its Chinese sales, greatly mitigating direct tariff impacts. However, it is possible the company was downplaying the possible impact of tariffs. The trade deal provides greater confidence that the company won’t face a big tariff impact. It also boosts demand expectations, as tariff costs companies face in other areas could have led to less spending at Monolithic.

Microchip also had a great day despite saying that it isn’t seeing any tariff impacts on its May 8 earnings call. The company noted that the semiconductors it ships to both the United States and China were largely exempt from tariffs. The demand-related argument discussed for Monolithic also likely plays a big role in the stock’s gain.

Additionally, the deal provides increased confidence that the company’s chips won’t eventually lose tariff exemption. Around 18% of the company’s net sales came from China in fiscal 2024, making news of a trade deal still a positive for the company.

Gold’s Trade Deal Reaction Puts a Dent in Newmont

The S&P 500 company that saw shares drop the most on May 12 was Newmont NYSE: NEM, which was down almost 6%. The fall was due to the trade deal's negative effect on Newmont’s primary product: gold. Gold prices fell around 3%, taking shares of Newmont with it.

Gold has been rising strongly because Trump’s trade battles have heightened global economic uncertainty. Significant trade progress is now reducing uncertainty, leading to a drop in gold. Gold miners typically trade with more volatility than gold, accounting for the amplified drop in Newmont shares compared to the metal.