AST SpaceMobile’s Star Is Rising: Get in While It’s Still Cheap!

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile is well-positioned to benefit from the space boom, providing global satellite coverage for mobile users.
• Institutional buying and short-covering have this market in overdrive, on track to rise by triple to quadruple digits over time.
• Analysts sentiment is firming for this Buy-rated stock.

You could examine AST SpaceMobile’s NASDAQ: ASTS stock price and make a compelling case that it is highly overvalued, but you’d have to overlook its industry, growth trajectory, and earnings outlook. While the $38.50 price tag traded in mid-June seems high for a company with only $0.7 million in revenue, it reached an inflection point in FQ1 that has it on track to sustain hyper growth for several years, achieve profitability with two, and to grow earnings at a comparable hyper pace for the subsequent few years. It trades at roughly 2x 2030 earnings in this scenario. 

AST SpaceMobile is not alone in its quest to build a global network of low-Earth orbit satellites that service the Internet and mobile markets everywhere. However, it is among the leaders in this multi-billion-dollar industry.

Estimated at nearly $235 billion in 2025, mobile service revenue is expected to grow at a 5% compound annual growth rate for years and be overtaken by satellite operators. 

Regarding AST SpaceMobile, it has deals in place to provide space-based services directly to smartphones through major carriers, including AT&T NYSE: T, Verizon NYSE: VZ, and others, as its network comes online. That is happening now, with the revenue outlook supported by these and government contracts that provide visibility for revenue and earnings. 

The technical outlook for the stock price is robust. The market is rallying strongly and showing no signs of slowing down. The break to new highs at the end of May is significant, and opens the door to a substantial movement. The technical projections suggest a $20 to $30 move from the $37 level is possible at the low end, with a potential movement of 100% to 1000% at the high end.

Trump, Revenue, and Short-Covering Send ASTS Market Into Overdrive

Several factors have affected AST SpaceMobile’s stock market and sent it into overdrive. The FQ1 results were tepid, with revenue falling short of the consensus estimate, but the accelerating deal volume, inflection in revenue, and outlook for profitability helped it to bottom.

Since then, the Trump-Musk feud has helped put this company in the spotlight and triggered short covering. Short interest was nearly 30% at the end of May, having risen sequentially and trending near record levels, ripe for a squeeze. It is likely to be much lower now, in mid-June, and is likely to continue falling as time progresses. 

Institutional ownership is also a driver for this market. The institutional group owns more than 60% of the stock and is buying on balance in 2025. The 2025 highlights include institutional activity reaching record-high levels, which are likely to continue into the second half.

Whispers on Wall Street include the possibility of significant investment from Jeff Bezos, a leading space investor, as well as collaborations with Amazon NASDAQ: AMZN, Blue Origin, and the Kuiper Constellation Project. As it stands, Bezos is expected to invest upwards of $10 billion in the Kuiper project; it is assumed he would have a significant impact on AST’s outlook if he were committed to the business.

A Catalyst for AST SpaceMobile Is Coming Soon

AST SpaceMobile has a catalyst coming up that will increase its visibility and ownership: inclusion in the Russell 1000 index. Inclusion in the index also affirms its standing and business potential, thereby improving market sentiment. As it stands, analyst coverage is tepid, with MarketBeat tracking only seven analysts who have coverage less than a year old, and five were issued in 2025. They rate the stock as a Buy and have been lifting their price targets, but they view it as fairly valued near mid-June price points. The risk is that this market will overshoot reality and set itself up for a contraction later in the year.