Brutal 2025 for Sarepta—Analysts Still Call for 179% Upside

Key Points

• Wave after wave of tragic news has hit Sarepta Therapeutics in 2025, tanking shares.
• Despite a 50% recovery, Sarepta shares remain down 85% this year.
• A flip-flopping Food and Drug Administration has renewed some confidence in this name.

For Sarepta Therapeutics NASDAQ: SRPT, 2025 has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster. The firm owns the only Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved gene therapy for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), known as ELEVIDYS. Since gaining approval in June 2023, Sarepta has generated over $1 billion in revenue from ELEVIDYS. However, that success has been massively overshadowed by key failures.

In 2025, multiple people treated with ELEVIDYS have died, causing shares to plunge. Overall, Sarepta shares are down by more than 85% in 2025, as of the Aug. 11 close. However, multiple Wall Street analysts seem to believe a huge recovery could be in store for Sarepta.

That is particularly true for analysts at Wells Fargo and BMO Capital Markets. Their $50 price targets indicate that shares could nearly triple in value. As of the Aug. 11 close, these targets imply around 179% upside in Sarepta stock. Below, we’ll detail Sarepta’s journey in 2025, as well as the bull and bear arguments around the stock.

FDA Whiplashes Sarepta, Sparking a Big Recovery in Shares

As of June 16, investigators found that two ELEVIDYS patients had died from acute liver failure (ALF). Then, on July 18, the FDA requested that Sarepta stop all shipments of ELEVIDYS, causing shares to fall 36%. This came after two additional deaths linked to Sarepta treatments. One patient received ELEVIDYS, while another received a different investigational drug with similar properties. On July 22, Sarepta complied with the request. Previously, Sarepta had only stopped selling ELEVIDYS to non-ambulatory patients.

However, on July 28, the FDA reversed this request. They concluded that the death of the third patient treated with ELEVIDYS was “deemed unlikely to be related” to the drug. Sarepta then decided to resume ELEVIDYS sales to ambulatory patients. This is notable, as ambulatory patients make up approximately 70% to 85% of ELEVIDYS patients. Sarepta says this patient group alone allows the company to be profitable.

Since the reversal of the FDA’s request, Sarepta shares are up 50% as of the Aug. 11 close. This demonstrates the improving sentiment around the stock, now that the company can continue generating revenue from ELEVIDYS.

Sarepta Loses Nearly $10 Billion in Market Cap, Leading to Valuation Upside

Sarepta started 2025 with a market capitalization of approximately $11.61 billion. As of the Aug. 11 close, that number has fallen to $1.75 billion. For a stock that has lost so much value in such a short period, it’s not overly surprising to see some analysts predicting massive upside in shares. Despite the turmoil surrounding ELEVIDYS, it is important to note that Sarepta has large revenue streams outside of it.

In fiscal 2024, 54% of the company’s net product revenue came from products other than ELEVIDYS. Although the growth outlook for Sarepta has weakened significantly, the stock now trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of just 1.2x. This compares to a median forward P/S ratio of around 4.3x among U.S. large-cap pharma and biotech stocks. Based on this metric, the stock appears highly undervalued compared to many names in its industry.

The Other Side of the Coin: Sarepta’s Key Risks

Despite some analysts' bullishness, Sarepta also faces several risks. The most obvious is the potential that another patient dies from ELEVIDYS. Such an event would hit shares and could result in the FDA reinstating its order for Sarepta to stop selling the drug to certain patients. This would greatly damage the firm’s financial prospects.

Illustrating these risks are the respective $13 and $15 price targets from Sanford C. Bernstein and Piper Sandler. These targets indicate significant downside potential in Sarepta stock from its Aug. 11 closing price of just under $18.

In the long term, the firm also faces risks from competitors developing DMD therapies. That includes Solid Biosciences NASDAQ: SLDB. Their DMD treatment, known as SGT-003, has shown strong efficacy in early-stage trials. SGT-003’s delivery method is also designed to decrease liver targeting. This combination could boost the chance of the drug gaining FDA approval, as it works to mitigate one of ELEVIDYS’ key risks.

SGT-003’s approval would likely significantly degrade Sarepta’s market share. Still, gaining FDA approval is notoriously difficult, and there is certainly no guarantee that SGT-003 will ever generate sales.

Overall, Sarepta’s financials indicate the stock could have serious upside potential. However, investors should understand that this reality could change quickly if ELEVIDYS causes further deaths. This could result in the FDA requesting that the firm halt sales again, taking away one of its key revenue streams.