Can RSG Stock Turn Guidance Into Gains in 2026?

Key Points

• Republic Services posted an EPS beat but issued modest 2026 guidance, reinforcing its role as a steady, contract-driven business rather than a high-growth story.
• Ongoing acquisitions and sector consolidation support long-term positioning, though recent CapEx has pressured cash flow and buyback potential.
• As investors rotate toward defensive names, RSG shareholders could benefit from stable demand, dividends, and predictable revenue streams.

Republic Services Inc. NYSE: RSG delivered a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report on Feb. 17. Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76 were above the forecasted $1.62 and 8% higher year-over-year (YOY). However, the waste management company missed slightly on revenue, with the $4.14 billion generated coming in about 1.6% below the forecasted $4.21 billion. Still, that was about 2.2% higher YOY.

More important was the company’s forward guidance. On that front, Republic Services guided to full-year 2026 revenue between $17.05 billion and $17.15 billion. The midpoint of that range would be a 3% YOY increase.

A similar story is in place with Republic’s EPS guidance. For the full-year 2026, it is guiding for EPS between $7.20 and $7.28. The midpoint would be about a 3% YOY increase from the $7.02 the company delivered this year.

Republic Services also announced expectations for approximately $1 billion in acquisitions in 2026. That follows the $1.1 billion of capital expenditures (CapEx) in 2025 and points to ongoing consolidation in the sector.

However, it also explains the lukewarm to bearish price action in RSG stock since the report. The earnings report showed softer operating cash flow after last year’s CapEx spend. That means there could be more pressure on free cash flow in the coming year, which could limit share buyback activity.

RSG stock has delivered a negative total return of around 2.2% in the last 12 months. However, the stock is showing signs of a bullish reversal. Is there enough upside to push RSG stock into the must-own category in 2026?

The Chart Looks Favorable

Predictably, investors didn’t react much to the report, with RSG stock down about 0.80% for the day. However, sentiment has turned more bearish with RSG stock down about 5% in midday trading on Feb. 18. That pushed the stock below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and with an RSI in the low 40s, selling pressure may not be exhausted.

That said, RSG stock has shown clear signs of reversing a bearish pattern that began in June 2025. It’s critical that it maintain its current level around $210. If it does, the overall pattern holds, and investors will want to see a climb to around the 200-day SMA at around $228. From there, analysts have a consensus target that aligns with highs made in late July.

Macroeconomic and Sector Tailwinds Are In Place

Republic Services will benefit from two trends. First, investors are taking a more defensive posture over concerns about the sustainability of growth in artificial intelligence (AI) related stocks. The second trend is that when investors look for defensive stocks, it doesn’t get much better than waste management. It’s a service that is always needed, one where revenue is usually tied to long-term contracts.

That is where some analysts may push back, pointing out ongoing weakness in the construction sector that has weighed on overall volumes. However, there are recent signs that economic activity is picking up as provisions from the Trump administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill begin to trickle in, as well as the billions in promised spending for reshoring as part of the tariff negotiations.

Furthermore, Republic Services is part of what effectively amounts to a duopoly in this sector with Waste Management Inc. NYSE: WM. In the last three years, RSG stock has delivered an average total return of 24.5%, outpacing the 19.6% total return of WM stock over the same period.

Investors will find that several ETFs hold both stocks, and both have strong institutional interest. However, it’s important to note that while institutional buying has outpaced selling for both stocks, neither has done so in an aggressively bullish way. That could have been part of the general malaise about stocks outside the tech sector. Notably, the spread between buying and selling volume expanded in the last quarter.

Analyzing the Upside for RSG Stock

Currently, analysts give RSG stock about 15% upside with a current consensus price target near $245.

But with many analysts forecasting a 12.5% total return in the S&P 500, a 16.7% return would turn Republic Services from a market laggard (as it was in 2025) to a market leader. 

That growth comes with a modest but reliable dividend that has increased by high single digits in the last two years.

That said, investors are paying a slight premium for the stock as of Feb. 18. The company’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 31.7x is not expensive compared to its history but is higher than its sector average and that of the S&P 500.