Core Scientific’s $10 Billion AI Shift Unlocks Triple-Digit Upside

Key Points

• Core Scientific is well-positioned to execute its strategy and realize its growing, greater-than-$10 billion revenue backlog.
• Analysts and institutional data reveal strong support and potential for robust upside.
• Short sellers pose a threat, along with the potential short-covering rally or squeeze.

Core Scientific’s NASDAQ: CORZ stock price struggles with traction in early 2026, but don’t be fooled. The company’s strategic shift from Bitcoin mining to AI mining is gaining traction and accelerating, and it is on track for robust, profitable growth in the coming years. Profitable growth is the operating factor, as revenue is forecast to exceed a 30% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, and the market undervalues the outlook. 

Trading at approximately 35X earnings in early March, a 30%+ CAGR puts this stock at under 10X its earnings relative to the 2030 forecast, a valuation suggesting a 100% to over 200% stock price increase could occur in that time. A 100% stock price increase would align this market with broad-market averages for current-year earnings, assigning no premium to the position or its earnings quality. 

Core Scientific Reveals Traction With Business Shift 

Core Scientific’s fiscal Q4 2025 results offer a mixed bag of details: the top line contracted and missed consensus, but other details offset the weakness. Critical details include the impact of declining Bitcoin and Bitcoin-related revenue as operations shift to AI support.

While Bitcoin revenue contracted, Colocation services, underpinned by contracts with CoreWeave NASDAQ: CRWV, grew more than 250% year-over-year (YOY) and are expected to continue growing at a hyper pace over the next two to three years. Plans include nearly doubling the company’s capacity by early next year and continuing to expand to meet demand in subsequent years. 

Margin news was a mixed bag of details, with positives offsetting negatives, and the net ultimately favorable to investors.

Critical details include a 330% increase in gross profit (that’s percentage points, not basis points) and net income versus a loss.

The bad news included negative adjusted EBITDA, linked to rapid expansion and reduced BTC operations, and is not expected to linger. The company did not provide specific guidance but expects to continue ramping revenue and capacity while monetizing its Bitcoin operations and assets. 

The balance sheet poses a risk, as the shareholder deficit increased in 2025, but the risk is minimal. Spending increases and cash burn are tied to rapid expansion intended to meet growing demand. As it stands, the company has over $10 billion in contracted revenue, equal to several decades of operation at the Q4 2025 income level. In this environment, all Core Scientific needs to do is continue executing its strategy to drive cash flow and profits; operational quality will improve significantly along the way and sustain that improvement as the investment cycle slows.

Analysts Affirm Core Scientific’s Double-Digit Upside Potential 

Analysts responded to the report with mixed sentiment, but no serious changes were logged. The first three revisions MarketBeat tracked included an upgrade to Buy, a reaffirmed Buy, and a reduced price target attached to an Overweight (Buy-equivalent) rating. Together, they strengthen the Moderate Buy consensus rating and conviction in the consensus price target, as the new targets align with it. Pegged at $25, the consensus forecasts a 55% upside from early 2026 support levels. 

Institutional trends suggest this group will buy the post-release dip and continue to support this market. MarketBeat data reveal that they own approximately 99% of the stock, including public and private funds, hedge funds, and corporations, and they have been accumulating for six consecutive quarters.

Activity has run at a balance of approximately $2.50 per $1 sold on a trailing-twelve-month (TTM) basis, with buying ramping sequentially in the back half of 2025 and into early 2026. This suggests a tailwind, with the market floor in place and a stock price rebound only a matter of time. 

Stock price action isn’t strong, but it suggests a market building its support base in preparation to advance. Price action is winding up within a narrowing near-term range, aligning with the midpoint of its historical range, with signs of support in the stochastic. The signal suggests a move to the top of the historical range is possible, but a more potent catalyst may be needed to set fresh highs. Despite the robust outlook, short-sellers remain a threat and may cap gains at $20 to $22.