D-Wave vs. IonQ vs. IBM vs. Google: Which Quantum Bets Will Win 2026?

Key Points

• Some pure-play quantum computing stocks have performed exceptionally well in 2025, but there remain major concerns about profitability and marketability.
• Legacy tech companies also working to develop quantum tech have the benefit of established operations, massive cash flow, and a long history of success.
• Investors seeking exposure to quantum might decide whether a riskier pure-play bet or a more diversified, broader tech name is the best fit.

Though the quantum computing industry remains nascent, it has massive potential: some estimates have suggested it could create nearly $1 trillion in economic value over the next decade and a half.

For now, though, investors are playing a waiting game while many pure-play quantum companies struggle to develop products with mass appeal and achieve profitability. While this jostling for position continues, it can be difficult to assess which of the growing field of quantum-focused firms has the best chances of sustained success in the developing industry.

Another major question for investors interested in accessing the quantum space is whether to look to these pure-play firms at all. After all, many legacy tech companies are also exploring this revolutionary technology and have a much longer history of success.

Ultimately, the decision may come down to factors such as risk tolerance, time horizon, capital, and eventual profits.

D-Wave: Commercial Focus and a Stronger Balance Sheet

Heading into the new year, there remains considerable investor interest in pure-play quantum names. Companies like D-Wave Quantum Inc. NYSE: QBTS experienced an interruption to a multi-quarter rally in the fall, but managed to rebound and end 2025 strong.

QBTS shares, for example, climbed by almost 23% in the month of December—a strong end to a year in which the stock more than tripled in value. D-Wave could continue to rally into 2026 as well, with investors remaining bullish overall and expecting close to 30% in upside potential.

For D-Wave, investors see potential in its rapid technological advances. In recent quarters, for example, the firm launched its highly-regarded Advantage2 quantum annealing system, noting a wave of sales to major institutions globally in the months that followed.

It achieved key results in a variety of use cases, pointing to the growing applicability of its quantum tools to a broader market. And the company's financials strengthened in many ways, with major increases in revenue, bookings, and an solid nearly-$1-billion in cash reserves built up toward the end of the year.

IonQ: Eye-Catching Milestones, but Losses Still Matter

D-Wave's growth is not taking place in a vacuum—competitors like IonQ Inc. NYSE: IONQ are also in the race for quantum dominance.

IonQ also made a splash with its technological developments in 2025, including world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate performance, helping revenue to more than triple year-over-year (YOY) for the third quarter.

At the same time, though, high losses and run rate spend—which have plagued pure-play quantum generally—dampened performance, and IonQ only climbed about 8% in 2025.

Despite the benefits of direct exposure to quantum and a potential first-mover advantage, IonQ's performance highlights some of the risks of pure-play firms as well: these companies have unproven, evolving business models and often lack correlation between technological success and financial performance.

The Alternative: Major Tech Plays

Some of the biggest names in the tech space are also exploring quantum tech. Companies like IBM Corp. NYSE: IBM and Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ: GOOG may appeal to investors seeking more stability or a proven record of financial success. These companies have also still performed quite well in many cases (IBM shares are up about 37% in the last year, and Alphabet shares almost two-thirds in that time).

Diversifying exposure by selecting a tech firm that offers quantum as one among many services can help mitigate risk. These other ventures also add cash flow heft, which could, in turn, fuel greater R&D efforts. 

Investors less convinced that quantum will be the revolutionary technology some analysts expect it to be might be content with a more modest exposure via one of these plays, despite questions about how much upside a legacy tech firm could gain from quantum developments alone.