dLocal Keeps Winning, but the Stock Still Has Something to Prove

Key Points

• dLocal has beaten earnings and revenue estimates for the fourth consecutive quarter, with Q4 TPV surging 70% year over year to a record $13.1 billion and full-year revenue surpassing $1 billion for the first time.
• Analysts have a consensus price target of $17, implying nearly 50% upside, yet DLO continues to trade at a forward P/E below 11 despite its consistent execution.
• The fundamental case is compelling, but the stock remains in a downward channel, and a break above $14 would be the key technical signal that sentiment is beginning to shift.

Uruguayan-based fintech company dLocal NASDAQ: DLO has delivered yet another impressive quarter, easily topping both earnings and sales estimates. It has also continued a pattern that is becoming hard to overlook. For the fourth consecutive quarter, the company has beaten expectations, reinforcing a clear trend of operational excellence and management's ability to execute consistently. 

Yet despite that track record, the stock continues to trade at what appears to be a significant discount, with a forward P/E below 11 as of Wednesday, March 18's close. With key metrics pointing to stellar growth and the stock well off its 52-week high, the question is whether this represents a compelling long-term buying opportunity. Let's unpack the results and see what Wall Street thinks.

DLO Posts an Impressive Q4 Beat

dLocal delivered a strong finish to 2025, with fourth-quarter results highlighting accelerating growth across every key metric. Total Payment Volume (TPV) reached a record $13.1 billion, up 70% year over year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of growth above 50%. Revenue surged 65% to $338 million, while gross profit rose 38% to $116 million. Profitability also improved meaningfully, with adjusted EBITDA increasing 38% year over year and net income jumping 87%. The company also demonstrated strong cash generation, with adjusted free cash flow doubling and exceeding net income, underscoring the strength of its asset-light, high-conversion business model.

The full-year picture is equally compelling. TPV climbed 60% to a record $41 billion, while revenue surpassed the $1 billion milestone for the first time in company history. Gross profit rose 37%, adjusted EBITDA increased 47% with margin expansion, and net income grew 63% to $197 million. Free cash flow was a particular standout, rising 110% year over year, and the strength of that cash generation allowed management to announce an expected dividend payment. 

Demand remains robust across regions, driven by e-commerce, streaming, financial services, and continued geographic expansion in Latin America, Africa, and Asia. Despite margin pressure from rapid scaling and geographic expansion, the overall picture is one of strong execution and disciplined cost control. The results reinforce DLO’s position as a leading payments infrastructure platform in emerging markets.

Sentiment Is Strong, But the Chart Has Work to Do

It's easy to see why sentiment on dLocal is broadly bullish. The results speak for themselves, and so does the valuation. Of the nine analysts covering the stock, seven have assigned a Buy rating and two a Hold, resulting in a consensus Moderate Buy. But it's the consensus price target that stands out most, at $17, implying nearly 50% upside from Wednesday's close. Following the strength of the most recent results, that figure, along with overall analyst coverage and ratings, is likely to improve further in the days and weeks ahead.

That said, there is work to do on the technical side. Despite the stellar fundamentals and consistent execution, DLO has been stuck in a downward channel for several months. The stock has failed to build any meaningful upside momentum. It’s down 19% on the year and almost 18% over the prior three years, a reminder that strong fundamentals alone don't always translate into near-term price action. 

For sentiment to genuinely shift on the chart, the stock would need to break above and hold the $14 level, which would signal a potential breakout of its downward channel resistance and possibly mark the beginning of a higher-timeframe uptrend. Until that happens, the stock remains a fundamentally compelling but technically unconfirmed opportunity, one that patient investors with a longer-term horizon may find increasingly difficult to ignore at current levels.