Home Depot Stock Keeps Falling—Analysts Say the Upside Is Still There

Key Points

• Despite a sluggish housing market and weak consumer sentiment that have slowed renovation spending, Home Depot has remained resilient, allowing it to report results ahead of expectations, renewing optimism on Wall Street.
• The company’s growing focus on higher-margin professional customers has helped offset softer do-it-yourself demand, as contractors tend to spend more per visit and make repeat purchases, providing more consistent revenue during periods of weak housing activity.
• Shares have fallen more than 12% over the past month as housing concerns weigh on the sector, yet analysts remain optimistic, with an average price target of $416, more than 20% above the current price.

A sluggish housing market and weak consumer sentiment have been major headwinds for The Home Depot Inc. NYSE: HD, as homeowners pull back on large renovation projects, which are a key driver of the company's sales. But despite the difficult backdrop, the home improvement giant has remained surprisingly resilient.

The company's strategy of expanding its focus on professional contractors rather than do-it-yourself customers has helped drive growth, supporting a fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report that beat expectations and renewed optimism on Wall Street, which sees substantial upside from current levels. Still, the stock has struggled as housing market concerns continue to outweigh analysts' optimism and the company's solid fundamentals. 

Shares were recently trading around $339, down about 13% over the last month and 23% from the 52-week high reached in mid-September. Could the pullback signal the stock is setting up for a rebound in the coming months? It could, particularly if mortgage rates tick lower or the spring home-selling season proves strong. 

Housing Market Weakness Continues to Weigh on Renovation Spending

Persistently high mortgage rates have created a lock-in effect, with homeowners reluctant to sell and take on higher borrowing costs. That has kept home sales sluggish and weighed on renovation spending, which typically rises when housing turnover increases. Weak consumer confidence has also added to the pressure, causing many households to rein in spending on large home-improvement projects. 

In the company's quarterly earnings call, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said, "Housing turnover has remained at historical lows since 2023, which has significantly reduced demand for projects and other purchases associated with buying and selling a home." He added, "Our customers also tell us they have concerns over general economic uncertainty, including inflation, growing job concerns, and higher financing costs." 

Despite these headwinds, the company delivered better-than-expected fourth-quarter results. Earnings per share for the fourth quarter, released on Feb. 24, were $2.72, 20 cents ahead of the consensus estimate as revenue of $38.2 billion was above analysts' estimates of $38.01 billion. The company reiterated its cautious fiscal 2026 guidance, anticipating continued pressure on housing activity, but increased its quarterly dividend by 1.3% to $2.33 per share, a sign that it expects to continue generating strong cash flow.

Focus on Professional Contractors Provides Stability

Home Depot's shift toward higher-margin professional customers was a key driver of growth during the quarter, and management expects that to continue going forward. Pros are typically more consistent customers than DIY shoppers, tend to make repeat purchases, and often spend more per visit. 

To better serve this segment, the company has expanded its distribution of specialty building products through two acquisitions. They have also invested in digital tools to improve the Pro customer experience, including a real-time delivery tracker for large orders and an AI tool that generates material lists and project quotes. This pivot toward professional customers is not unique to Home Depot. Rival Lowe's Companies Inc. NYSE: LOW has adopted a similar strategy, though Home Depot's scale gives it a leg up.

Analysts Remain Bullish Even as the Stock Pulls Back

Analysts appeared encouraged by Home Depot's earnings and the company's ability to navigate the challenging housing market, with 12 analysts raising their price targets following the report. The average 12-month target is $416, more than 22% above the current share price. The consensus rating stays at Moderate Buy, with 20 analysts recommending Buy, 12 suggesting Hold, and one advising Sell. Short interest has also declined in recent weeks, with less than 1% of the float sold short, suggesting investors are not heavily betting against the company. 

Despite the potential upside, the stock continues to fall. The stock is down 5% over the last five days and 13% over the last month. Home Depot is not alone, however, as the weak housing market has pressured the entire sector. Shares of Lowe's are also down roughly 5% over the last five days and 16% over the month, while Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. NYSE: FND has fallen more than 7% over the last five days and nearly 20% over the last month. 

While housing market woes are unlikely to ease anytime soon, Home Depot's proven resilience, coupled with bullish analyst sentiment and a recent dividend increase, highlights the business's underlying strength. Even a modest decline in mortgage rates, an uptick in consumer confidence, or a strong spring home-selling season could likely restore momentum in the shares.