What to Watch for in Meta's Earnings: 2026 CapEx and AI Updates

Key Points

• Shares of Meta Platforms have struggled since its last earnings report in October 2025.
• The company's 2026 capital expenditure guidance will be among the most-watched metrics in its Jan. 28 release.
• Analysts continue to see considerable upside in shares despite investor trepidation.

In Q3 2025, Meta Platforms NASDAQ: META reported earnings that significantly disappointed investors, leading shares to fall over 11%. Now, with the next report approaching, the Magnificent Seven company is being closely watched. 

Meta will report on Jan. 28 after the market closes. While investors will be focused on the company’s Q4 2025 results, the stock’s next move will likely hinge on what Meta says about 2026. Here are the key factors that will shape its outlook.

Analysts Project +20% Revenue Growth, Minimal EPS Increase

At a high level, investors will want to see Meta meet or exceed analyst expectations on revenue and adjusted earnings per share (EPS). Currently, analysts expect revenue of $58.3 billion, equating to a growth rate of around 20% to 21%. Analysts forecast adjusted EPS at $8.16, indicating around 2% growth. During the last two quarters, Meta grew faster than these rates in both metrics.

Meta should also provide revenue guidance for Q1 2026. Notably, the company does not typically provide full-year growth guidance. Analysts are projecting $51.3 billion in sales next quarter, or 21% growth. Note that the company’s revenue typically peaks in Q4 due to increased advertising spending during the holiday season. Thus, a steep drop in revenue from Q4 to Q1 is not alarming.

The growth rates of ad impressions delivered and price paid per ad are two key performance indicators that help assess the health of the company’s advertising business. Figures of 10% or slightly higher would be consistent with recent trends.

Expense Guidance Will Be Top of Mind

However, the most important number investors will focus on is likely Meta’s capital expenditure (CapEx) guidance for 2026. In Q3, Meta provided commentary indicating it would increase spending in 2026 by a very significant amount.

When the company initially guided for $71 billion in CapEx spending in 2025, the statements suggested that the figure could grow to well over $100 billion in 2026. This implication alarmed markets, with many feeling that Meta’s past artificial intelligence (AI) investments had not been successful enough to justify such a large spending increase. 

Analysts expect Meta to provide concrete CapEx guidance. If the range is higher than most market participants forecast, it could lead to a significant downward move in the stock.

It's difficult to say whether the range will exceed expectations. However, the company has used fairly aggressive rhetoric regarding its AI ambitions. This includes its Meta Compute announcement. The firm said it plans to build tens of gigawatts of data center capacity in the current decade, an initiative of very large proportions. The company has also signed several new energy deals since the last reporting, totaling 6.6 GW of capacity.

These factors suggest that Meta’s CapEx guidance could significantly exceed expectations. Investors may take comfort, though, in the fact that Meta shares have fallen more than 13% since its last earnings report, which creates uncertainty about how much further investors would be willing to push the stock down.

Total expense guidance, a figure that excludes CapEx, will also be important to watch. The range will help reflect the impact of hiring more AI-focused talent on Meta’s overall cost structure.

CTO Touts New AI Models as Analysts Eye +25% Upside

Outside of the numbers, investors will likely want to hear Meta discuss developments around its rumored AI models. On Jan. 21, at the World Economic Forum, Meta’s Chief Technology Officer, Andrew Bosworth, described the new AI models that the company is now using internally as "very good." 

While Bosworth did not specifically mention them, sources suggest that the company is working on two new models codenamed Avocado and Mango. Shedding positive light on its developmental models could boost investor optimism, especially given that the firm’s LLaMA models have generally not impressed the market.

Despite Meta’s falling share price, Wall Street analysts continue to express confidence in the stock. The consensus price target sits near $822, implying 27% upside.

Meta is playing the long game with AI. Whatever the market's reaction to the company's next earnings is, investors will want to decide for themselves whether the company remains a smart long-term play.