Norwegian Cruise Line Cuts Outlook as Headwinds Build

Key Points

• Norwegian Cruise Line beat earnings expectations in Q1 but missed on revenue, with net yields and cost controls coming in better than guidance, pointing to some early progress in its turnaround.
• The company cut its full-year outlook, now expecting net yields to decline by 3% to 5%, and lowered its EBITDA and earnings guidance, largely due to a more challenging macro backdrop.
• While management says many of the company’s issues are internal and fixable, Norwegian continues to lag the broader cruise industry, with its stock down over the past year as peers have posted strong gains.

It’s been rough seas for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. NYSE: NCLH, and it’s unlikely to be smooth sailing anytime soon. After reporting mixed first-quarter results Monday morning, the company slashed its outlook, citing mounting headwinds ahead.

The cruise company has been taking steps to address internal missteps that have weighed on results over the past few years. While progress is being made, particularly on cost savings, weaker bookings and broader operational challenges will take time to resolve. At the same time, a difficult macro backdrop is making it harder to right the ship, as the conflict in the Middle East has driven up fuel costs and led to softer demand in some areas.

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EPS Beats Expectations But Revenue Falls Short

For Q1, Norwegian reported earnings of 23 cents per share, up from 7 cents per share a year ago and 8 cents above analysts’ estimates. Revenue came in at $2.33 billion, up nearly 10% year over year but about $26 million shy of Wall Street expectations.

Overall, it was a relatively solid quarter, with several key metrics coming in at or above guidance. Net yield, a key performance indicator that essentially measures the profit generated per guest per day, declined about 1% on a constant-currency basis, which was better than the company’s guidance for a 1.6% decline.

The company’s cost controls also began to show traction. Adjusted net cruise costs, excluding fuel, fell 1%, which was slightly better than expected and helped adjusted EBITDA come in at $533 million, ahead of the company’s $515 million guidance.

Weaker Outlook Takes Center Stage

On the earnings call, Chief Executive John Chidsey, who stepped into the role in February as part of the company’s turnaround effort, said that while Norwegian has been making progress on internal priorities, including improving culture, cutting costs, and refining marketing to better manage revenue, the impact will take time.

In the meantime, an increasingly challenging macro backdrop, which was not fully accounted for in prior guidance, has added further pressure.

As a result, Norwegian said it expects net yield to decline 3.6% in Q2, reflecting pressure on European sailings and weaker-than-expected domestic demand as consumers reevaluate their travel plans amid the broader macro environment.

The third quarter is expected to be significantly weaker than the second quarter. While the fourth quarter is expected to remain pressured, net yields should improve from Q3. For the full year, the company expects net yields to fall between 3% and 5%.

Due to softer-than-expected top-line performance and higher fuel costs, the company reduced its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $2.48 billion and $2.64 billion. Adjusted earnings are now expected to come in between $1.45 and $1.79 per share.

CEO Focused on "Fixable" Issues Within Company's Control

On the earnings call, CEO John Chidsey acknowledged that the updated guidance was disappointing, noting that while the company can’t control macro conditions, it is focused on improving execution and operations.

“I want to be clear, while the macro environment continues to rapidly shift beyond our control, many of the issues we are addressing are internal and fixable. They come back to execution, alignment, and discipline,” Chidsey said on the call.

He added, “While progress will take time, I am confident we are moving in the right direction to deliver stronger, more sustainable performance over time.”

The company's cost-cutting efforts, which include streamlining operations and reducing marketing spending, are expected to generate about $125 million in annualized savings.

Outlook Cut Could Drive Analyst Revisions

Unsurprisingly, Norwegian's updated guidance was not well received by Wall Street.

Shares dropped sharply after the report by about 8%. The stock reached a level not far off its 52-week low of $16.78, which it hit roughly a year ago.

Heading into the report, analysts were relatively bullish on Norwegian. The stock carried a Moderate Buy rating, with 11 Hold ratings, eight Buy ratings, and one Strong Buy.

The average 12-month price target of $24.76 suggested strong upside from its pre-earnings close of $18.20.

It remains to be seen whether Wall Street’s outlook will shift as analysts digest the weaker guidance.

Norwegian Lags Peers as Cruise Industry Remains Strong

Norwegian’s challenges have made it an outlier within an otherwise resilient cruise industry.

"I have confidence in the industry...the growth trends," Chidsey said during the call, adding that many of the Norwegian's issues are "self-inflicted wounds that we need to go fix." He added, "I wouldn’t say that we’ve completely lost our way with agents and consumers, but I wouldn’t say we’re hitting on all cylinders."

The company's missteps are evident in its stock performance compared with peers such as Carnival Corp. NYSE: CCL and Royal Caribbean Cruises NYSE: RCL. While Norwegian shares are down roughly 1% over the past year, Carnival shares are up more than 30%, and Royal Caribbean stock has gained over 10%.

Norwegian clearly has work to do to get itself back on track. While turnaround efforts are underway, the fixes will take time. Coupled with an uncertain macro backdrop, the company could be navigating choppy waters for a while.