Ollie’s Stock Won’t Stay a Bargain Much Longer

Key Points

• Ollie's Bargain Outlet posted strong revenue growth in Q4 despite slim misses on earnings and guidance, with both comp-store sales and store expansion outpacing expectations.
• The Big Lots bankruptcy is creating a customer conversion opportunity that analysts believe has years left to play out—and isn't yet reflected in the stock price.
• Institutional investors own nearly all of the float and have been steady buyers, backing a company that funds its own growth and trades below every analyst's target.

Ollie’s Bargain Outlet's NASDAQ: OLLI stock price downtrend is over. The Q4 2025 results are in, and they reaffirmed a robust outlook. Although the report was below the consensus forecast and guidance followed suit, the misses were slim, growth and outlook are robust, and the weakness wasn’t as unexpected as the consensus suggested. 

Analysts at RBC issued cautionary statements ahead of the release while highlighting the company’s position, aggressive expansion, and potential for outperformance in the coming years. In their view, the Big Lots bankruptcy and customer conversion to Ollie’s are multi-year events yet to play out, and it's not priced into the stock.

Ollie’s Outperforms Peers as Expansion Takes Hold

Ollie’s had a strong quarter despite revenue growth falling short of the consensus estimate. The company’s $779.26 million in net revenue is up 16.8% year-over-year, well ahead of competitors, underpinned by better-than-expected comp and store-count growth. The comp came in at 3.6%, slightly better than RBC’s forecast, while store count increased by 15.4%. 

Margin news is also solid despite falling short, with spending control and revenue leverage offsetting store opening expenses. Adjusted EPS missed the consensus by two cents, but the miss is slim, and earnings growth outpaced revenue by a narrow margin. Looking ahead, opening expenses are coming and should return to trend, providing visibility into margin and earnings quality improvements over the next two to three years. 

Guidance is likewise tepid relative to MarketBeat’s reported consensus, narrowly falling short of consensus, although expecting solid growth. As it stands, the company expects revenue in the range of $2.985 billion to $3.013 billion, with a midpoint just short of the $3 billion consensus, and an earnings midpoint of $4.45 versus $4.53 expected, which amounts to about 10% on the top line.

Ollie’s Cautious Guidance Sets Stage for Bullish Revision Cycle 

Among the opportunities for investors is the potential for cautious guidance, which is significant. Not only is there last year’s 15.4% store-count growth to consider, but the company plans to add another 11.6% in stores this year, and there are other tailwinds brewing. Analysts forecast potential for consumer tailwinds tied to tax season. Not only are returns being delivered, but the average check is more than 10% larger than last year, providing liquidity to Ollie’s consumer base. In this scenario, Ollie's will outperform guidance, improve it as the year progresses, leading analysts into a similarly bullish cycle.

Ollie's carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating with no Sell ratings among the 16 analysts tracked by MarketBeat. No revisions were issued immediately after the Q4 release, but several analysts commented, highlighting the growth potential and strength in loyalty members (up 12.1%), while expressing concern about future comparisons. Not all believe in the long-term strength of the Big Lots conversion, but the group is bullish on the stock price, forecasting an average upside of roughly 30%. Ollie’s stock trades below the low end of the analysts' range in early March, underscoring the deep-value opportunity and potential for a rebound.

Institutions reveal the real opportunity, as they own almost 100% of this stock and buy on a quarterly basis. Reasons for them to own it include the fortress balance sheet, self-funded growth, growth outlook, and cash flow. The capital return potential adds another layer. 

The company doesn’t pay dividends, choosing to reinvest instead, but it does buy back shares in sufficient quantity to offset any dilution. The share count decline is incremental, but there, providing a base from which future returns can grow. Competitors and industry leaders such as TJX Companies NYSE: TJX are well-known dividend and share-repurchase machines, a status Ollie’s is growing into. 

Ollie’s Stock Price Bounces From Rock Bottom 

Ollie’s stock price hit rock bottom late in 2025, rebounded quickly, and retested the level again in early 2026. Following the guidance update, shares rose more than 5%, confirming support at this crucial level. This level is significant because it was a resistance target set in 2019 that was broken in early 2025 and is now confirmed as a new, strong support level for this market. The likely outcome is that this market will continue advancing in 2026, potentially accelerating the move as the year progresses.