O’Reilly Automotive: An Anytime Buy for Buy-and-Hold Investors

Key Points

• O'Reilly Automotive is a buy-and-hold stock on track for a stock split this year.
• Solid fundamentals indicate a sustained stock price uptrend, but investors should prepare for a potential post-split correction and a buying opportunity. 
• Cash flow and capital return are fundamental to this investment; buybacks reduced the count by 3% in Q1.

O’Reilly Automotive NASDAQ: ORLY is a must-own stock of calibre akin to Cintas NASDAQ: CTAS, Casey’s General Stores NASDAQ: CASY, and its close competitor, Autozone NYSE: AZO.

Like the others, O’Reilly self-funds growth, maintains a fortress balance sheet, produces reliable cash flow, and returns capital to investors. Also like the others, the stock price trends higher over time, rarely offering a deep or long-lasting discount, making it a good stock to buy almost anytime. 

Among the opportunities for investors in Q2 2025 is a stock split. O’Reilly Automotive investors will vote on a proposed 15:1 stock split in May, which will take effect in early June if approved. The split is to “make shares more accessible” to employees participating in the stock purchase program, but it will also benefit the market at large.

O’Reilly’s share price exceeded the $1,000 mark in late 2024 and extended the rally in 2025, putting its shares out of reach for many, if not most, average investors. 

The stock split would be noteworthy for its underlying cause: O'Reilly's solid business fundamentals. Companies with solid fundamentals tend to trend higher over time, and data has shown that stocks that split outperform the broad market over time.

The caveat is that many stocks will sell off after a split before resuming the uptrend and offer larger-than-usual discounts for a limited time only. 

O’Reilly Pulls Back on Weak Results and Guidance

O’Reilly Automotive’s stock price pulled back following the Q1 release and guidance due to underperformance and weakness. However, the $4.14 billion in Q1 revenue is up 4% year-over-year (YOY) on a 3.6% comparable store gain, providing solid cash flow and earnings. The miss is also versus a high bar due to analysts' revisions and is easy to overlook given the growth, cash flow, and capital return.

The capital return is 100% in share repurchases, which reduced the count by more than 3% year over year. Regarding the autoparts business, growth was seen in the Pro and DIY retail segments.

Margin is another area of concern, but it's not a game-changer for investors. The company experienced increased cost pressures and margin contraction above consensus forecasts, leaving earnings shy of targets but still robust and sufficient to sustain the financial outlook. The $538 million in quarterly net income allowed for a cash flow positive quarter while reinvesting and returning capital to shareholders. 

The guidance aligns with the Q1 results. The company reaffirmed its guidance, expecting low single-digit growth aided by an improving store count, but less than the analysts' consensus forecast. The critical detail is that the guidance led analysts to raise their stock price targets, which may lead the market to a new high before the end of the year. 

Analysts Raise Targets for O’Reilly Ahead of Stock Split

O’Reilly’s bullish analyst trends are extending in the wake of the guidance update. MarketBeat tracks a handful of revisions within the first few hours of the release, and 100% include a price target increase. The takeaway is that 18 analysts show high conviction in the consensus Buy rating and forecast for new highs.

The consensus target implies only 5% upside in late April but is sufficient for a new high, while the recent revisions point to the high-end range or an additional 10% upside. 

O’Reilly’s stock price action is pulling back from record highs in late April but shows no signs of reversal. If anything, the market is forming a potentially bullish consolidation that could continue the underlying trend. In that scenario, the stock price could increase by $200 by midsummer and continue to increase through year’s end.

However, support is near the $1,300 level and will likely be retested before another new high is set.