Post 35% Surge, Analysts Eye More Upside in Copper Giant Freeport

Key Points

• After being down and out in September, Freeport McMoRan has recovered mightily.
• Analysts are raising their price targets on the copper miner.
• Data center build-outs and EV expectations provide support for FCX's long-term outlook.

After taking a big-time tumble in September, copper mining giant Freeport McMoRan NYSE: FCX has regained its footing, and then some. On Sept. 24, shares dropped nearly 17% as the company significantly reduced its guidance in light of a disaster at its Indonesian mine.

The stock declined another 6% on Sept. 25, leaving FCX shares just over $35.

However, Freeport has roared back with a vengeance since then. Shares closed at just over $47.50 on Dec. 16; an approximately 35% recovery from their September low.

Now, Wall Street analysts see even more upside ahead. Below, we’ll detail why Freeport McMoRan has been able to stage such a robust rebound, and why analysts are growing increasingly optimistic. Ultimately, Freeport McMoRan continues to have solid upside potential going forward. All data is as of the Dec. 16 close unless otherwise indicated.

FCX Fully Recovers After September Crash

A mudslide occurred at Freeport’s Grasberg Block Cave underground mine in Indonesia in early September, tragically killing several workers. Subsequently, Freeport was forced to lower its guidance for 2025 and 2026 significantly. Freeport estimated that the mine could “potentially” return to pre-incident production levels in 2027. However, as MarketBeat pointed out at the time, this decline in production is temporary.

There is a reasonable path by which Freeport’s copper production could return to pre-incident levels in the not-too-distant future. Thus, it appears likely that the market was overreacting to near-term disruptions, providing an opportunity for investors with a long-term mindset. The market appears to have coalesced around this view. FCX shares now trade above $45 per share; their level the day before the company lowered its guidance.

Wall Street Moves Targets Above $55 in December

The consensus price target on Freeport currently sits near $49, suggesting around 3% upside potential in the stock. However, among Wall Street analysts tracked by MarketBeat who updated their price targets in December, the average target comes in at over $56.

This figure implies that shares could rise by 18%. This shows how analysts incorporating the most recent information in their forecasts are also among the most optimistic on FCX.

On Dec. 4, Reuters conducted an interview with Freeport CEO Kathleen Quirk, which appears to have been a key impetus for analysts raising their price targets. Quirk said that copper production at Grasberg should return to 90% of pre-incident levels in 2026 and back to full production in 2027.

These were more optimistic statements than the company’s initial assessment, leading to bullishness among analysts. Quirk also stated that Freeport has the opportunity to grow by 50% (roughly 8% – 9% annually) over the next five years through internal, organic means. 

She likened this potential growth to adding an entirely new mine to the company’s portfolio. However, this growth will not come with the major capital investment required to actually construct a mine.

This internal expansion strategy contrasts with competitors such as BHP Group NYSE: BHP, who have looked toward expensive merger and acquisition deals to bolster their production.

Long-Term Tailwinds Supporting FCX’s Outlook

Fiber optics is likely to keep replacing copper as the primary method for transmitting data. However, despite being able to transmit data more efficiently than copper, one thing that fiber optics cannot do is transmit electricity. This is why copper remains essential for electricity transmission and distribution—a growing need in both the artificial intelligence (AI) and electric vehicle (EV) sectors.

Furthermore, although the shift toward EVs has slowed, experts expect them to continue rising in prevalence. Analysts believe that EVs make up around 9% of passenger cars sold in the United States today. BloombergNEF projects this number will increase to 27% by 2030. This is key for Freeport, as EVs require three to four times more copper than gas-powered vehicles. Additionally, rising demand for EV charging stations to support EV proliferation could create even more demand for copper.

Data centers and a continued shift toward EVs are two key tailwinds supporting long-term copper demand, and thus Freeport McMoran’s outlook. While near-term gains may moderate, long-term investors focused on the copper supercycle still have reasons to be optimistic about FCX stock.