SMCI Stock Rally: 45% Gain in 2 Days Could Be Just the Start

Key Points

• Super Micro Computer's stock price is melting up in May after a string of good news, including a multi-billion dollar deal.
• Analysts' trends are set up to provide a catalyst with coverage rising and sentiment firming, but the price targets were falling ahead of the announcements.
• Super Micro Computer is taking share in key categories and is viewed as a near-pure play on AI. 

After more than a year of struggles and uncertainties, the market for Super Micro Computer NASDAQ: SMCI is ready to rebound, rebound strongly, and continue rallying on into the year’s end. The reason is that the accounting issues are behind it, and the news cycle is increasingly positive. The most visible catalyst is the U.S. opening of Saudi Arabian AI markets.

President Donald Trump eased restrictions and paved the way for a multi-billion-dollar AI infrastructure investment. At face value, it means hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA and AMD GPU semiconductors over the next five years. That equates to an equivalent number of Super Micro Computer servers and server systems, along with the upgrades and replacements they will need in the coming years. 

Super Micro Inks $20 Billion Deal: Revenue Outlook Improves Significantly

Among the deals announced in Riyadh alongside the HUMAIN investments in NVIDIA NASDAQ: NVDA and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ: AMD semiconductor technology is a partnership between Super Micro and DataVolt. The $20 billion deal will fast-track the delivery of Super Micro’s ultra-dense GPU servers and rack systems.

The deal will play out over the next five years as Saudi Arabia builds out its datacenter infrastructure. It is worth nearly 100% in revenue growth relative to the 2025 consensus. 

The analysts’ trends set up a market catalyst that the DataVolt deal can unlock. The analysts' coverage has increased significantly over the past 18 months, with sentiment firming to Moderate Buy, but the price target has declined.

The latest coverage is an initiated Outperform from Raymond James, whose analysts called the company a near-pure-play on AI, well-positioned in the market and gaining share in branded and wholesale markets.

The stock price catalyst is a shift back to price target increases, a likely outcome given the company’s progress and new deals.

Institutional and short-selling trends also align with an outlook for rapidly improving share prices.

The short interest alone is enough to increase the price action significantly, running at 22% in early Q2 and trending near record levels.

Add in the institutions, which own about 85% of the stock and are buying on balance in 2025, and the stage is set for a short-covering rally that has likely already begun.

Super Micro Computer Is a Deep Value 

Super Micro Computer’s revenue and earnings growth outlook was robust before the Saudi deals were announced, putting the stock at deep value levels relative to its forward outlook. In mid-May, the stock traded at only 9x its 2028 forecasts, which are now too low. The stock price should trade closer to 30x its earnings or higher, suggesting a solid 200% upside can be easily achieved within the next few quarters. 

The critical resistance point for the stock price action is near $56.50 and will likely be reached before the end of H1 C2025, possibly before the Q4 F2204 earnings are released.

Due to the launch of new technology, the company is expected to accelerate its growth and may exceed consensus forecasts. This month, the company began volume shipments of its next-gen, AI-optimized max-performance servers. 

The risk for SMCI investors in 2025 is market overhang. A market overhang is a large block of shares that could be released on the market, capping gains or pressuring lower shares. In this case, the overhang is previous buyers who are now in the red following purchases made in early 2024.

Assuming a move to fresh highs above $56.50, the critical resistance targets include $68 and $98. There is a significant chance of a bearish reversal within the $68 to $98 range. Should any indication of additional accounting impropriety be revealed, the odds of a bearish reversal increase to virtually 100%.