Taiwan Semiconductor Falls on China News—Buy The Dip?

Key Points

• Taiwan Semiconductor has been restricted from sending and selling equipment to China, sending the stock lower for a dip buying opportunity.
• As NVIDIA has made it through a similar limitation with double-digit growth still, investors don't have much to worry about.
• Wall Street analysts still see double-digit upside, and institutions are buying into the future of the industry.

More news is coming out for the technology sector in the United States, as the issues of trade and tariffs are still ongoing and targeting the semiconductor industry like never before. This time, a direct impact has been made on shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing NYSE: TSM as President Trump has restricted the company’s presence and dealings with China.

Specifically, Taiwan Semiconductor will not be able to ship any chipmaking equipment into Asia’s powerhouse, nor will it be able to sell any chips or products in the region. Although it seems bearish at first, investors should remain calm and recognize that the fundamentals and future financial outlook of the business haven't changed, despite what bears claim.

One recent example can be taken from NVIDIA Co. NASDAQ: NVDA, as the company was also restricted from selling its industry-leading H20 chips to China, yet double-digit growth rates were still reported in terms of new orders and revenue for that company’s latest quarter, meaning that there isn’t really much to worry about for Taiwan Semiconductor this time around.

Why This Industry Giant Will Be Fine

This restriction minimally impacts Taiwan Semiconductor’s ability to operate and maintain industry dominance, given its significant market share in semiconductor and chipmaking, not just in Asia.

In reality, NVIDIA and other leading tech brands wouldn’t exist today without Taiwan Semiconductor, since it’s the key provider of wafers and equipment necessary to produce these chips worldwide, which are used in everyday electronic devices and help advance the artificial intelligence race.

For that reason, investors can consider this reaction, a 1.1% decline in a single day, as a potential dip buying opportunity, especially considering that this is a stock that is meant to be owned and not traded, despite what the short-minded participants of the market may believe.

In fact, the H20 chips blockade in NVIDIA should have been enough to boost short-selling confidence in Taiwan Semiconductor stock, yet just the opposite has taken place. Over the past month, 9.2% of the company’s short interest has declined, indicating an initial sign of bearish capitulation, despite the undeniably strong fundamentals remaining.

With this in mind, there are other factors to consider in this potential recovery for the Taiwan Semiconductor stock.

Wall Street Still Loves Taiwan Semiconductor Stock

Despite industry drama, Wall Street analysts remain bullish on Taiwan Semiconductor, with four ratings supporting a Buy and none suggesting Sell or Hold.

Overall, the fair valuation still stands at $258.3 per share (or 13.1% higher than today’s prices). Yet, some outliers have taken matters into their own hands to call for a more realistic target in this dominating stock. One of these is Charles Shi from Needham & Company, who sees the stock’s valuation for $270 per share as a reality.

Targeting a much more attractive 18% upside potential, this perspective could boost investor confidence, suggesting that this dip might be a buying opportunity. In the past quarter, institutional purchases of Taiwan Semiconductor stock totaled $8.6 billion, and this amount could increase following the recent dip. It’s not just institutions involved; also, the less prominent investors, who likely have access to industry-changing information ahead of major decisions, play a role. This includes the influence exerted by the United States Congress.

Cleo Fields, one congress member, has recently purchased over half a million worth of Taiwan Semiconductor stock across two transactions. Given the recent timing of this purchase, investors can reasonably assume that this person was aware of the impending challenges facing the industry, particularly in relation to China and its access to chipmaking equipment.

If there are still any doubts about this dip, non-believers only need to look at NVIDIA's reaction to the H20 blockade to see that there are many more tailwinds supporting that area to climb higher.

One tailwind in particular is the growth of data centers across the United States, which directly calls on companies like Taiwan Semiconductor to help aid this computing power transition onshore, a much bigger opportunity than whatever amount of business has been lost due to the China restrictions.