The Metals Company: Unlocking a Klondike-Quality Mineral Rush

Key Points

• The Metals Company, Inc. is on the verge of licensing approval and commencing commercial operations.
• It is the leader in a rush to unlock a multi-trillion-dollar seafloor opportunity. 
• Revenue is expected in 2027 and profits the year after. 

The Metals Company, Inc. NASDAQ: TMC is as futuristic a company as can be, yet not involved in space or AI. This company aims to unlock a mineral rush in the making over the coming decades, harnessing a resource once only dreamed of by scientists, politicians, and schoolchildren. It focuses on deep-sea nodules, once an unrecoverable resource but now a key to unlocking mineral independence. At face value, each nodule is a source of manganese, nickel, cobalt, and copper (all critical for battery production) along with trace amounts of rare earth minerals, and there is a lot of it down there.

The Metals Company targets the Clarion-Cipperton Zone, a 4.5 million-square-kilometer area between Hawaii and Mexico. It sits about 4,000 to 5,500 meters below the sea surface, and its nodules are worth up to $1,500 per dry metric tonne.

A single mining site within the zone is estimated to be worth up to $1.7 billion annually; there is an estimated $19 trillion in minerals to be had. The only things standing in the way are regulatory approvals, which are in the works and progressing smoothly. 

The Metals Company intends to collect nodules via a partnership with Allseas. Allseas is a Swiss-based company and leader in subsea construction, pipelaying, and heavy-lifting. It will use a hydraulic collection vehicle to lift nodules off the seafloor by suction. Advantages include limited silt disturbance and delivery to a floating processing ship.

The Hidden Gem is a converted drilling ship and the first floating processing plant of its kind. Owned and operated by Allseas, it was commissioned by The Metals Company earlier this decade, and initial testing has been completed. The ship successfully recovered 3,000 tonnes of nodules in 2022 and is waiting on regulatory approval. As it stands, NOAA deemed the company’s application largely in compliance, and execs believe licensing approval will be granted before the end of Q1 2027.

Analysts Like the Numbers, but The Metals Company Is a Speculative Buy

There is not a lot of analyst coverage, but enough to get a baseline read on the market. The four tracked by MarketBeat rate the stock as a consensus Hold with 50% Buy-side bias and 25% Sell-sde. Three of the four ratings were set in January 2026, the fourth in December 2025, so they are fairly current. There is an additional fifth rating, pegged at Buy, but it is more than 120-months old and less relevant. Other pertinent details include the price targets, which forecast 165% upside at the consensus and more than 100% at the low-end. 

Among the sentiment drivers is the outlook for revenue and profitability. The group forecasts initial revenue of approximately $50 million in 2027, with a quadruple-digit jump to over $550 million by 2028.

Earnings are also expected by 2028, as this asset-light cash cow will begin generating revenue almost as soon as it commences commercial operations. Operational risk is limited, as the technology has been proven; the limiting factor will be processing the nodules, but the company is making progress in that regard as well. 

Catalysts in 2026 include advances in nodule-processing activities. The company aims to use rotary kiln electric arc furnace technology (RKEF), either on a contract basis or in its own facility. The company is already working with Japan-based Pacific Metals for testing and verification while also exploring the construction of facilities in Texas.

A feasibility study is underway for a Brownsville, TX facility that could process nodules alongside other feedstocks. RKEF technology is used globally to process nickel; in this use case, the resulting products are a high-grade nickel-copper-cobalt alloy and manganese silicate. The best part is that the process eliminates solid-waste tailings. All inputs are converted into usable materials, including fertilizer-grade ammonium sulfate. 

TMC Stock Is Cheap, but It Can Get Cheaper

The Metals Company's 2026 stock price action is sketchy. The market retreated from long-term highs and is on track to test and potentially break a critical support target at the 150-week exponential moving average (EMA). The EMA is an indicator of long-term, buy-and-hold sentiment and a pivot point for this market.

If price action falls below this level, it may struggle to regain traction until a more potent catalyst emerges. However, institutional activity suggests a bottom will be found soon, as they are buying on balance and ramping activity as price action declines.