TPG Built a Record Year, Then Lost 40%—Is the Selloff Overdone?

Key Points

• TPG delivered strong growth across AUM, earnings, and fundraising, highlighting durable business momentum.
• Market fears around rates, industry liquidity, and AI exposure drove a sharp stock decline despite solid fundamentals.
• The stock’s lower price and dividend yield near 6% may appeal to long-term investors.

TPG Inc. NASDAQ: TPG built one of the most impressive track records in alternative asset management in 2025, then watched its stock fall 40% after the start of this year.

The question is whether it’s a sign of what’s coming in the economy and private markets, or an unfair punishment that creates a big opportunity. For investors who feel confident, if not prescient, about the future of alternatives and an AI-led economy, TPG could be a timely play.

TPG’s Growth Story Remains Strong

The company’s recent track record is clear. Assets under management (AUM) grew 23% to over $303 billion last year.

The firm raised a record $51 billion in new capital, up 71% from 2024, and it deployed a record $52 billion across its platforms.

Fee-related earnings surged 25% to roughly $953 million. And the company’s fee margin in the fourth quarter expanded to 52% from 41% a year earlier as its operations became more profitable as it scaled, not less.

As its AUM has nearly tripled since it went public four years ago, its fee-related earnings have grown at a 31% compound growth rate.

The fourth quarter capped an extraordinary year. TPG reported adjusted earnings of 71 cents per share, well above analyst expectations. Net income attributable to the company was up nearly 500% from the prior-year period. The company’s shares hit a 52-week high at the start of the new year.

Market Pressures Trigger a Sharp Selloff

Then came the selloff. Like others in the alternatives industry, TPG got swept up in the environment. Geopolitical tensions, surging oil prices, and lingering interest rates pressured valuations. Concerns over AI’s impact on software companies and private credit piled on another layer of anxiety, cooling market sentiment significantly.

Major competitors like Apollo NYSE: APO and BlackRock NYSE: BLK moved to limit investor withdrawals from certain funds, triggering industrywide concerns about liquidity. The contagion hit TPG as well as peers like KKR NYSE: KKR and Blue Owl NYSE: OWL. The result was a TPG stock that had traded around $70 early in the year sliding to the high $30s by spring, even as the underlying business continued to perform.

Jon Winkelried, TPG’s CEO, tried to lessen concerns during the company’s first-quarter earnings call with analysts, explaining that software represented only about 2% of the company’s credit AUM. Software companies represented 18% of TPG’s private equity AUM, he said.

Strategic Moves Signal Continued Momentum

While the stock was falling, TPG was still making moves. In January, the firm closed a $500 million stake in Jackson Financial, locking in fee-earning AUM of $12 billion in five years as part of a long-term partnership.

In March, reports emerged that OpenAI was in talks with TPG, Advent International, Bain Capital, and Brookfield Asset Management NYSE: BAM, in a roughly $10 billion deal to distribute enterprise AI products across their portfolio companies.

For its part, TPG management projected another strong year for 2026 with full-year fundraising guidance to $50 billion.

The majority of analysts concur on a positive outlook. With an overall Moderate Buy rating, the consensus price is $64 per share. Twelve analysts rate the company a Buy, while five suggest Hold. The expected price range is from $48 to $80 per share.

Risks Remain Despite Positive Outlook

Even with recent results, though, investors should be cautious. TPG’s earnings are still heavily dependent on deal activity, fundraising, and asset valuations. The dividend payout ratio sits well above 500% on trailing earnings, which is appealing but means the yield is not guaranteed if realizations slow. And with the lowest valuation at just $48 per share, the stock could have only a modest upside from current levels.

In addition, competition remains fierce. Blackstone NYSE: BX, Apollo, and KKR each manages hundreds of billions of dollars with deeper institutional relationships and broader product lines. TPG is growing fast, but it’s in a market where the biggest players are also fighting for the same capital.

A Patient Investor’s Opportunity

TPG is not a simple buy at any price, but the recent steep selloff has made it a more interesting investment. Business fundamentals remain strong. Whatever headwinds exist in the marketplace could be temporary.

The income story has also shifted in favor of investors otherwise hurt by the price drop. With the stock down sharply, TPG’s annualized dividend of $2.44 per share now implies a yield of roughly 5.5%, higher than most large-cap financials.

For patient investors willing to hold through rate uncertainty and deal-cycle volatility, the combination of dividend yield, a projected 25% EPS growth, and a price target well above current trading levels is worth taking seriously. Of course, if the macro environment deteriorates further, the floor may not yet be in.

Either way, TPG is the kind of stock that rewards patience more than urgency. From outside, indications are that TPG is a high-quality business going through a rough patch, not a broken one.