Wall Street Loves FIGS—Why Do Price Targets Predict Pullback?

Key Points

• FIGS stock has surged nearly 260% over the past year, hitting a price not seen since shortly after its 2021 IPO.
• Q4 revenue topped $200 million—the company's best quarter ever—with scrubwear sales up 35% and international sales jumping 55%.
• Despite the rally and bullish analyst commentary, the consensus price target sits almost 30% below current levels.

After a stunning plunge following its 2021 IPO, medical and lifestyle apparel company FIGS, Inc. (NYSE: FIGS) has roared back to life, trading at a price it hasn’t touched in nearly four years. The stock, currently trading above $17, has surged almost 260% over the past year, including a 58% spike in the last month alone.

The rally has been fueled by strong earnings reports and a wave of bullish analyst commentary. Yet despite the positive momentum and sentiment, the consensus 12-month price target for the stock is just $12.25—almost 30% below its current price. This raises the question: how much of this recovery is supported by fundamentals, and how much is momentum? A closer look at FIGS’ history and recent earnings offers some clues. Early investors in FIGS saw a quick windfall after the company’s IPO, which debuted in May 2021 at $22 per share and, within a month, surged to $50 per share.

It was a good time to be a medical apparel company, as the COVID-19 pandemic spurred demand for such gear. As the pandemic eased, however, shares sharply reversed course and, within 12 months, were trading below $8. In the years that followed, FIGS remained mostly range-bound in the single digits, though after dipping below $4 in April 2025, the stock began to take another turn—this time to the upside. 

Earnings Momentum Sparks Rally

After notching steady gains following positive Q1 and Q2 2025 earnings reports, the Q3 2025 results, released on Nov. 6, sent the stock charging higher. The report featured stronger-than-expected revenue growth, solid demand across its core business and healthy margins despite tariff pressures.

The company also issued an upbeat outlook, raising its full-year guidance for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA margins. Wall Street applauded the news, driving the stock up more than 30% over the following week and prompting Zacks Research to upgrade the stock to Strong Buy from Hold. 

The party continued after the recent release of the Q4 2025 earnings report on Feb. 26. The report highlighted a 33% jump in revenue and marked the company’s best quarterly revenue yet, with sales topping $200 million. In its earnings call, the company—which earned some bragging rights by outfitting Team USA’s medical team during the Winter Olympics—pointed to strength across the board, including growth in its active customer base and higher average order values.

Its core business, scrubwear, was also a particular sweet spot as sales in that segment, which accounted for more than three-quarters of its net revenue, increased 35%. International sales also helped drive growth, rising 55%. The fourth quarter capped off a strong year for the company, as net revenue rose 14% year-over-year to a record $630 million. Despite tariff pressures that affected gross margins, profitability was strong, with full-year adjusted EBITDA margin beating its target by more than 200 basis points. 

Analysts Applaud Earnings and Outlook

FIGS also issued an upbeat outlook for the year ahead, anticipating continued strong demand driven in part by growth in healthcare jobs. It highlighted plans to expand into new international markets, prioritize growth opportunities across businesses and continue its stock buyback program.

For fiscal 2026, the company said it expects net revenue to grow 10% to 12%, with its profitability targets improving. 

Analysts appeared equally excited about FIGS' future prospects, with a flurry of upbeat reports following the earnings release. Barclays upped its rating on the stock to Strong Buy from Hold, KeyCorp shifted to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $17 price target, and Goldman Sachs moved its rating to Hold from Strong Sell. BTIG reiterated its Buy rating with a $15 price target and Telsey Advisory bumped its target to $15 from $9. 

FIGS Stock Pushes Past Price Targets

FIGS' strong earnings are the clear driver behind the stock's catapult to four-year highs. Shares began climbing even before the Q4 report, jumping nearly 14% in the session ahead of the release. After the results were announced, the rally intensified. The stock surged 24% on the first trading day following the report, then added another 10% the next day. As of March 4, the stock was trading above $17. That's more than double Morgan Stanley’s $8 target issued in January and is above even the highest target price of $17 set by KeyCorp. 

The disconnect between bullish analyst sentiment and lower price targets suggests that while analysts may like FIGS’ improving fundamentals, they remain cautious about the stock’s valuation. At its current level, shares are trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 90, suggesting that much of FIGS’ expected growth may already be priced into the shares.

While there are few publicly traded direct competitors to FIGS, lululemon athletica inc. NASDAQ: LULU—a dominant player in lifestyle apparel—is trading at a P/E of less than 12. The bottom line is that while investors are clearly applauding the company’s turnaround, skepticism remains over whether the stock can continue its ascent or whether a pullback may be in store.