Walmart Stock Holds as Tariff Risk Spurs Support

Key Points

• A new tariff world may have spooked Walmart shareholders, though the situation may not be as bad as it seems moving forward.
• Wall Street analysts recently boosted the stock, and institutions bought in recently. 
• A potentially favorable outcome may be in the works even as uncertainty rises.

There’s no denying that the current state of the S&P 500 index can be summed up in a couple of words: volatile and uncertain. President Trump's recently rolled out trade tariffs create a less clear future for global trade and the costs to be paid and handled by hundreds of businesses in the United States, indirectly hurting the ability for management and Wall Street analysts to forecast earnings potential down the line.

With this in mind, a few stocks are front and center in this new wave of uncertainty. They are specifically focused on the retail sector, as it is one of the most exposed to importing and trading with China’s economy (where, consequently, most of the tariffs seem to be focused).

Sometimes, no news is good news, as today, shareholders in Walmart Inc. NYSE: WMT woke up to the latest challenge facing the company head-on.

After an earnings call in May 2025, Walmart’s CEO told shareholders and analysts that increased tariff costs will likely show up at the counter, telling consumers to be prepared to pay higher prices due to the inability to absorb these new costs under the current business model.

The reaction from the White House was just as unexpected as investors almost celebrated Walmart’s earnings being left intact from passing on costs.

What Stands in The Way of Walmart

The President posted on social media, calling for Walmart to “eat” the tariffs, as consumers were looking up to the retail giant to keep providing them with affordable options for their grocery needs. The post indirectly implied that failure to comply could result in worsening conditions.

Later, after this statement, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke out on this issue with a theme that most investors should keep in mind during today’s volatile stock market. Bessent reminded investors that CEOs typically have to lay out the “worst case” scenarios during tough earnings calls, so that if things end up getting better down the line, bearish expectations aren’t met. There’s a new reason to find a recovery rally.

There’s also the other side of the equation regarding China, as the nation would have to bear most of the tariffs charged as it exports the products that Walmart buys. 

Either way, this opens up the floodgates for an even more speculative outcome.

Walmart's shares were changed a little to start the trading week, flat to lower by only half a percent, not reflective of news that was initially thought to be destructive to the company’s bottom-line earnings. This lack of bearish price action could be credited to the fact that this new tariff revenue might also help companies in the retail space moving forward.

Speculation Based on Stability

Walmart is arguably one of those “too big to fail” names in the United States economy. As they play a big role in the President’s goal to level out the intensity of trade tariffs being charged, they might also get some help from the new revenue the country will bring in from these deals.

Such a scenario could look like a subsidy, where the government may help companies like Walmart retain their low prices even though the cost to import increases, buying time as the shift in logistics and supply chains starts to take place across the marketplace.

With this in mind, investors can start pinpointing a potential scenario driving the 1.1% increase in Walmart stock holdings by institutional allocators from Amundi. This move brought their net position to a high of $1.4 billion today. Counting on dozens of analysts at their disposal, these investors have probably gamed out all potential outcomes in a new tariff world.

The President’s request that Walmart absorb these new costs was likely already built into these analysts’ outcomes.

Nevertheless, they decided it was prudent to buy up more of the stock as the market moved forward in this uncertainty. As it turns out, these investors weren’t alone.

Scot Ciccarelli, an analyst from Truist Financial, decided to reiterate his Buy rating on Walmart stock as of May 2025. This time, he placed a valuation target of $111 per share to call for as much as a 14% upside from where it trades today, not to mention a new 52-week high in the name.

A new price breakout and continued momentum could also draw in more interested buyers, strengthening this bull case for Walmart’s future. Are there concerns about Walmart’s already thin net income margin? 

These concerns might be a thing of the past, but this giant will probably earn a helping hand in this transition, supporting the American consumer as well.