What a Gold Miner and an Oil Trust Reveal About Today’s Market

Key Points

• As the bull market enters its fourth year, investors are abandoning underperforming tech stocks in favor of energy and materials, which are significantly outperforming the broader S&P 500.
• A weakening U.S. dollar, aggressive tariff policies, and escalating Middle East conflicts are driving a flight to safety, fueling a massive rally in commodities like oil and gold.
• Stocks like Vista Gold and Permian Basin Royalty Trust signal that the commodity run is broad-based, supported by strong profit margins and favorable technical indicators.

During healthy bull markets, investors routinely embrace risk-on strategies. High-flying tech stocks tend to outperform while defensive sectors and safe-haven assets are often disregarded. 

But in 2026, we’re seeing the opposite. Now in its fourth year, the bull market has likely entered the late stages of its cycle. The Magnificent Seven continue to underperform, software stocks are suffering some of their worst losses since the last bear market, and investors are embarking on a flight to safety that has benefited cyclical and defensive investments.  

That’s resulted in outsized benefits for two sectors: energy and materials. The last time either of those sectors led the S&P 500 was in 2021, when energy topped the index in the lead-up to the last bear market, and in 2022, when energy led throughout the bear market. 

Now, there’s evidence that those two sectors may hold onto their market-leading gains this year, underscored by a gold development company and an oil and gas trust that are likely to continue mirroring the trend. 

Macro Factors Continue Rewarding Underappreciated Sectors

Energy leads all S&P 500 sectors with a year-to-date gain of nearly 28%, followed by materials at roughly 10%. The broader market, by contrast, is down more than 3% on the year, with financials trailing at an 11% loss.

That’s hardly a coincidence. The U.S. Dollar Index remains down more than 8% since January 2025. The Trump administration’s tariff policies have fueled the ‘sell America trade,’ and ongoing uncertainty has resulted in outflows from U.S. equities to the benefit of foreign markets. 

Additionally, consumer confidence has plunged to its lowest level in more than a decade, the labor market has weakened, and a geopolitical landscape rife with instability has seen numerous conflicts disrupt global markets from energy to agriculture. 

In turn, speculative sectors are suffering while energy and materials—out of absolute demand—continue to thrive. Now, two companies are providing clues that the current macro environment is well-positioned for more of the same. 

Vista Gold Suggests the Precious Metal Rally Has Legs

Gold prices got a shot in the arm when the United States and Israel began coordinated military operations against Iran on Feb. 28, further propelling the precious metal's price. Even before the latest war in the Middle East began, heightened market volatility, trade uncertainty, and pre-emptive military actions became hallmarks of the Trump administration, benefiting gold prices.

Investors should expect more of the same going forward, as evidenced by Vista Gold NYSEAMERICAN: VGZ, a little-known small-cap gold miner that reported full-year and Q4 2025 earnings on Friday, March 13. 

As a development company, Vista Gold is pre-revenue, so its Q4 earnings per share (EPS) of negative 6 cents wasn’t the headline. Rather, the company ended 2025 with no debt.

Vista Gold also finished the year with a strong cash position and nearly $42 million raised to advance the Mt Todd gold project in Australia’s Northern Territory—a large, advanced-stage project “with measured and indicated gold resources totaling 9.1 million ounces,” according to the company’s website.

The biggest takeaway from the company was its confidence in progress on the Mt Todd project. With a projected 30-year mine life, Mt Todd offers significant scale and demonstrated economic viability. A feasibility study last year reported 5.2 million ounces of proven and probable reserves while demonstrating strong economics for the development of 15,000 tonnes per day and 5.3 million tonnes per year.

The stock, which gained 172% over the past year, serves as an example of how the gold industry is more bullish at this point in 2026 than it has been in years. Conditions are ripe for shareholders to benefit from that confidence, with Vista Gold forecasting a 1.7-year after-tax internal rate of return of 44.7%. 

Permian Basin Royalty Trust Indicates That Energy’s Run Has Just Begun 

The outbreak of war in Iran has roiled oil markets, with the fallout being felt from the gas pump to utility bills. That has benefited the oil majors, with ExxonMobil NYSE: XOM, Chevron NYSE: CVX, and Shell NYSE: SHEL all recently hitting their all-time highs. 

But lower on the energy hierarchy, companies like Permian Basin Royalty Trust NYSE: PBT are evidence that the oil and gas rally is as broad as it is nascent. Amid speculation that oil prices may reach $200 per gallon, the key story with Permian—similar to Vista Gold—is less about past results and more about future expectations. 

Despite the stock climbing 106% over the past year, there is likely more in store for shareholders as its margins remain strong. According to an SEC filing last month, the trust—which holds royalty interests in oil and gas properties in the Permian Basin in West Texas—was able to secure a profit margin of more than 87% on its Texas Royalty Properties. 

That Feb. 17 announcement came before the Iran war commenced later that month, meaning that PBT’s net income is very likely to continue increasing from the average price per barrel it saw in February. At the time, the trust cited oil prices of $56.78 per barrel. Today, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. crude benchmark, is trading at $95.48 per barrel.

Last Tuesday, March 10, the stock crossed above its 200-day moving average—a bullish long-term indicator that suggests more share appreciation ahead, bolstered by the global oil supply pinch. Fundamentally, Permian Basin is operating at optimal financial health, ranking in TradeSmith’s Green Zone for over nine months.