AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird Progress Comes With Several Risks Still Unresolved

Key Points

• AST SpaceMobile shipped three more BlueBird satellites toward Cape Canaveral on Sept. 30, with production now advancing through BlueBird 50 of its planned 45-satellite constellation.
• A securities fraud class-action lawsuit alleging misleading statements about capital needs adds to existing risks including six consecutive earnings misses and heavy insider selling.
• Wall Street holds a mixed consensus Hold rating with a price target near $85, as shares trade down about 21% year to date and remain highly volatile.

Investors received some long-awaited good news regarding space-based cellular broadband network provider AST SpaceMobile NASDAQ: ASTS on Sept. 30.

In a social media post that day, the company announced that a convoy carrying its next three low Earth orbit (LEO) BlueBird satellites had departed its Midland, Texas facility and was en route to Cape Canaveral, where the satellites will be prepared for deployment.

But as the SpaceX NASDAQ: SPCX competitor continues to pursue its short-term goal of achieving 45 BlueBirds in its LEO constellation, a series of headwinds and tailwinds are at odds, which is clouding the space stock’s trajectory.

3 New BlueBirds Head to Florida With AST SpaceMobile Production Ramping Up

Following the Aug. 5 launch of Bluebirds 11, 12, and 13, attention turned to the next cohort of BlueBirds, which was undergoing final preparations at AST SpaceMobile’s plant.

An October launch remains speculative because AST SpaceMobile has not announced an official date. The timing comes as shareholders are hoping for a bullish catalyst. ASTS closed Thursday, Oct. 1, at $57.04, leaving the stock down about 21% year to date.

The Sept. 30 update also confirmed that BlueBirds 14, 15, and 16 were being shipped to Florida in advance of AST SpaceMobile’s next launch. Perhaps more intriguing is that the company has ramped up its production through BlueBird 50, “with more than 20 spacecraft structures now being integrated as part of [its] assembly process.”

Headwinds and Tailwinds Battle for the Near-Term Future of AST SpaceMobile

The announcement comes at a time when AST SpaceMobile is dealing with as many headwinds as catalysts. In September, news broke of a securities fraud class-action lawsuit that accuses AST SpaceMobile of misleading investors about its capital needs and competitive position during a class period from March 2025 through July 2026.

The suit centers on three separate $1 billion convertible-note offerings that allegedly undercut prior assurances and preceded sharp declines in ASTS shares. The legal action adds another risk for the company following six consecutive earnings misses.

It also builds upon existing concerns about AST SpaceMobile's already elevated volatility, its high cash burn rate, launch delays, heavy insider selling, and elevated short interest.

The company isn’t without tailwinds, though. Its cash burn rate is directly attributable to its rapid scaling, which is capital-intensive and a routine growing pain for most high-growth companies. AST SpaceMobile is progressing toward its target of having 45 LEO BlueBird satellites in orbit by early 2027—a goal initially slated for late 2026.

But an Aug. 5 press release confirmed that the space-based, direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity provider is well on its way to achieving that goal, with “production advancing through BlueBird satellite 42.” By Sept. 30, the company said production had advanced through BlueBird 50.

Meanwhile, AST SpaceMobile expects D2D commercial services to begin in the first half of 2027, following its U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) connectivity test. In August, the FCC granted the company a temporary 30-day permit to test its 800 MHz spectrum on unmodified devices, running through Sept. 12 and tied to its existing agreements with T-Mobile NASDAQ: TMUS.

AST SpaceMobile’s existing network of around 60 strategic partners also serves as a formidable tailwind. Alphabet NASDAQ: GOOGL maintains a multi-hundred-million-dollar stake in the company. Pacts are also in place with AT&T NYSE: T, Verizon NYSE: VZ, Tokyo-based Rakuten OTCMKTS: RKUNF, real estate investment trust American Tower NYSE: AMT, and the U.S. federal government, with roughly 3 billion subscribers among its communications service partners.

Wall Street’s Mixed Outlook Reflects AST SpaceMobile’s Highly Volatile Year

Similar to AST SpaceMobile’s performance this year, Wall Street cannot seem to make up its mind about the stock. Of the 13 analysts currently covering ASTS, fewer than half assign it a Buy rating. Overall, it receives a consensus Hold rating alongside an average 12-month price target of nearly $85.

Another mixed signal comes from institutional activity. Over the trailing 12 months, institutional buying has outweighed selling. Inflows of $2.42 billion from 389 buyers have significantly surpassed outflows of just over $411 million from 114 sellers.

However, current short interest stands at an elevated 21.2% of the float, or $3.84 billion worth of shares, while insiders have sold nearly $452 million over the past year against $806,470 in buys.

Since hitting its all-time high on May 28, the stock has plummeted more than 55%. Meanwhile, the high-volatility stock presently carries a beta of 2.74, indicating substantially greater sensitivity to broad-market movements than the market itself.

Investors looking for a lower entry point may want to continue monitoring how the aforementioned headwinds unfold before committing. Additional downside is possible; shares have not entered oversold territory as measured by the Relative Strength Index. AST SpaceMobile is currently estimated to report Q3 earnings on Nov. 9.