Morgan Stanley Is Bullish on Apple—But With a Catch

Key Points

• Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating on Apple but cut its price target to $355 from $360 despite praising the company's product roadmap.
• Higher memory chip costs and a smaller-than-expected Pro price increase are squeezing Apple's profit margins even as unit sales and revenue forecasts improve.
• Wall Street remains split on Apple, with UBS reiterating a cautious Neutral rating while Morgan Stanley stays bullish ahead of upcoming earnings.

When a Wall Street heavyweight like Morgan Stanley calls a company's next two years “the most exciting” it can remember, you would expect it to raise its price target, not trim it. Yet that’s where it found itself with Apple Inc. NASDAQ: AAPL last week, and the contradiction says a lot about where the tech giant stands today.

In a note following Apple's recent product launch, Morgan Stanley stayed firmly in the bull camp, keeping its Overweight rating and lauding the upcoming roadmap under new CEO John Ternus.

And yet it still nudged its price target down, to $355 from $360.

For a stock that has climbed more than 20% this year and sits near record highs, the mix of enthusiasm and caution is telling.

So what’s going on, and is this really a mixed picture dressed up as good news? As we’ve been highlighting in recent weeks, much of the answer lies in whether Apple can not only sell more iPhones, but also make more money from them.

A Stronger Top Line

Let’s start with the good news in Morgan Stanley’s note, because there was plenty of it. Analyst Erik Woodring came away from Apple’s launch feeling optimistic and lifted his revenue forecasts on stronger iPhone shipments, continued strength in Mac sales, and better-than-expected pricing in its Services arm.

Woodring’s longer-term view is rosier still, and he believes the product push under Ternus could deliver something Apple has not managed in a decade: four straight years of growth in iPhone unit sales. Fresh hardware, a smarter Siri, and the pull of Apple's sprawling ecosystem all feed into a case for above-trend growth.

Investors have clearly been leaning into that potential too. After an initial wobble during the launch itself, Apple shares have recovered in the weeks since, as the market latched onto the promise of stronger demand and the pricier new iPhone lineup. For now, the mood is cautious optimism.

Why the Target Still Slipped

Here’s the catch, however. Despite the extra revenue it now expects, Morgan Stanley trimmed its earnings forecasts for both this financial year and next. The reason is classic: selling more units doesn't help much if each sale is less profitable.

Two forces are at work here. Firstly, Apple raised the price of its Pro model by $100, a decent bump but less than the $150-$200 increase Morgan Stanley had expected. That leaves the average iPhone selling for a little less than the firm had penciled in, squeezing the profit on every handset.

Second, and more stubborn, is the rising cost of memory chips. Soaring demand for the components that go into AI systems has pushed up prices across the industry, and Apple is far from immune. Those higher costs eat directly into its margins, and by the company's own admission, they are the main reason its underlying profitability has slipped.

The Bull and Bear Tug of War

This tension sits at the heart of the debate over Apple right now. The bulls, led by Morgan Stanley, argue that stronger unit sales, a richer product mix, and the long runway of AI-driven upgrades will ultimately win out. They point to healthy early demand for the iPhone 18 Pro and the fresh appeal of the foldable Duo as evidence the upgrade cycle has legs.

The bears are less convinced the revenue will reach the bottom line. Beyond the memory-cost squeeze, they worry higher prices could push buyers to hold onto their phones longer, and that the pricey Duo may cannibalize Pro Max sales rather than add new ones. Questions also remain about whether Apple's AI efforts can keep pace with faster-moving rivals.

That split is visible across Wall Street itself. On Oct. 6, UBS Group reiterated a more cautious Neutral rating with a $296 price target, flagging still-sluggish growth in the App Store, a direct counterweight to Morgan Stanley's upbeat take the week before. With Apple due to report earnings later this month, both camps will soon have hard numbers to argue over.

A Mixed Picture, Maybe, But Not a Bearish One

So where does all this leave the stock? Taken together, the message is nuanced rather than negative. Apple's products are clearly still red hot, and its ability to sell them in volume is hardly in doubt. The real question is how much of that strength survives the journey from revenue to profit, once memory costs and softer pricing take their toll.

For investors, the takeaway is one of patience. Apple remains a high-quality business with a formidable product cycle ahead, and it still holds a Moderate Buy consensus rating on MarketBeat. But with its margins under increasing pressure and the shares already near record highs, the easiest gains may already be behind it. That means the bigger prize will likely go to those willing to look past a potentially bumpy quarter or two and bet that Apple can confidently convert its current product strength into future profits.