Target Is Winning Shoppers Back—Can the Rally Reach $180?

Key Points

• Target reported better-than-expected Q2 results, with revenue up 5.4% and comparable store sales growing 3.8% on improving customer traffic.
• Analysts remain positive on Target's turnaround, with a consensus Hold rating and price targets reaching as high as $177 per share.
• Institutions have been buying Target shares aggressively, drawn by a 3% dividend yield, a strong balance sheet, and potential buyback resumption.

Target NYSE: TGT hit the bullseye with its Q2 results, proving that getting back to basics works. The results included better-than-expected top- and bottom-line results, sustained growth, and improved guidance. A key detail was comp store strength, highlighting the most important factor in retail results: traffic.

Target’s traffic is improving, inventory focus and price moderation are resonating with consumers, and momentum is building across the network. The likely result is equally solid results in subsequent releases, keeping the uptrend in TGT's share price intact.

While waiting for price weakness is a sound strategy, it may be too late. Target’s stock is now in price recovery mode, underpinned by solid results and an optimistic outlook.

It's likely that the uptrend in the stock price will continue to gain momentum, pushing the stock toward $180 or higher by year’s end.

Technical trigger points include the $160 resistance level, which signals a structural market shift upon crossing. The $160 resistance level has been in place for over a year, coincides with a multiyear congestion band, and marked the market’s pivot from hopeful to hopeless during Target’s post-COVID struggles. A move above $160 would signal a tipping point where capital inflows can accelerate.

Target’s Q2 Beat Shows Traffic Growth and Stronger Guidance

Target posted a solid Q2, with revenue up 5.4% to over $26.5 billion. This is up incrementally in the two-year stack and signals a structural shift in the business, with growth outperforming expectations by a solid 150 basis point (bps) margin. Comps, the measure of growth in existing stores, grew by an unexpected 3.8%, underpinned by a 3.6% increase in traffic.

Mix played a role, with prices down across a wide range of products, highlighting the strategy's strength. Internally, executives said strength was broad-based across channels, demographics, categories, and for the period.

Margin strength also played a role. While tariff refunds juiced the income and earnings, results were above MarketBeat’s consensus figures in all comparisons. The $4.11 in adjusted earnings included $1.65 in IEEPA refunds, but it still outperformed by $1.77, prompting management to raise guidance.

More importantly, the earnings strength is reflected in the balance sheet, which reveals an increasingly strong position and capacity for capital return. Guidance is a catalyst for this market. Execs raised targets for revenue, margins, and earnings, putting them above consensus figures even without the impact of tariff refunds.

Analysts See Target’s Turnaround Gaining Momentum

Analysts were generally pleased with the results, citing merchandising and store resets as drivers of traffic and comp-store sales, and operational factors as drivers of margin improvement.

While no analyst revisions were released along with these initial reactions, no downgrades or price target reductions are expected. The news exceeded expectations, strengthening the near- and long-term outlook and suggesting the recovery in analyst sentiment will probably continue.

As it stands, MarketBeat tracks 32 analysts rating TGT as a consensus Hold with a 40% Buy-side bias and a $143.85 price target. The price target lags the market as of mid-August but is up significantly over the past year, supporting the rally, with recent revisions firmly in the high-end range. It tops out at $177, well above the $160 trigger point and aligning with the $180 target level.

Institutions Buy Into Target’s Turnaround and 3% Yield

Target presents an attractive opportunity in August 2026, given the company's turnaround, the low price multiple relative to competitor Walmart NYSE: WAL, and a high 3% dividend yield. The 3% yield is about 3x the S&P 500 average, nearly 4x WMT's yield, and comes at half the cost relative to earnings power. TGT shares could rise 100% from $150, moving well above the existing highs, and still offer better value and yield than Walmart.

Using the institutional activity as a guide, the opportunity is real, given their 80% ownership rate and aggressive 2026 posture. The group has bought aggressively, accumulating nearly 4x the shares sold over the trailing 12 months, with most activity in early Q3 just ahead of the release.

A key driver of long-term price action is the potential resumption of share buybacks. Target paused buyback activity in 2023 to preserve capital, and the impact is positive. Balance sheet highlights at Q2 2026’s end include improved cash, inventory, current, and total assets compared to the prior year, with long-term debt and liabilities declining and equity increasing. With this in play, buybacks could resume by year’s end or in early 2027. The biggest risk is consumer demand trends. While shoppers are returning to Target, macro pressures remain and may cap near-term growth potential. Oil prices, inflation, and interest rates are all concerns, and none show signs of easing soon.

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