Why Flywire and Airbnb Could Be Quiet Winners of a Ceasefire

Key Points

• A potential U.S.-Iran ceasefire could boost consumer confidence, lower fuel costs, and restore flight routes, benefiting select travel-related stocks.
• Flywire reported 41% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1 2026 and analysts project earnings growth of about 111% in the coming year.
• Airbnb's revenue rose 18% year-over-year to $2.7 billion, and the company estimates the Middle East conflict weighed about 100 basis points on nights and seats.

Throughout the Iran war over the last several months, global travel has been affected, with impacts ranging from shifts in airspace usage to increased fuel costs and even changes in traveler behavior, as some have chosen to postpone international trips due to safety or cost concerns. Although it remains to be seen at the start of H2 2026 how the conflict between the United States and Iran may continue or be resolved, a post-ceasefire scenario may lead to increased stability in the travel industry.

Boosts to consumer confidence, lower fuel and ticket prices, restored flight routes, and other changes could all lead to a boom for certain companies operating within the industry. Of course, there may be an upper limit to the benefits for the leisure travel space in parts of the world outside of the Middle East, and there are other reasons why the cost of air travel is likely to remain high regardless of an Iran conflict. However, two stocks to keep an eye on include Flywire Corp. NASDAQ: FLYW and Airbnb, Inc. NASDAQ: ABNB.

A Payments Company Tied to Global Travel

Flywire is not likely the first company investors will think of when it comes to the travel industry—the firm is a global payments enablement company that is in the business of cross-border transactions. Travel is one of its verticals, but it is also involved in education, health care, and commercial services.

Nonetheless, even for portions of Flywire's business that are not specifically related to hospitality, travel can have an impact. For example, international education payments often relate to students or their families traveling abroad—more robust travel rates may mean more opportunities to facilitate payments.

A rebound in travel could also mean more international hotels being booked, more tour operators facilitating payments around the world, and so on. Flywire's business benefits from stronger payment volume, rather than just from airline ticket sales or hotel bookings.

Fortunately for Flywire, it has already been thriving even prior to a resolution of the U.S.-Iran conflict. In the first quarter of 2026, for instance, the company reported 41% year over year (YOY) gains to revenue and adjusted EBITDA of $39 million while raising full-year revenue and EBITDA forecasts. Many of these improvements were the result of new education clients, meaning that there could be additional room for leisure- and business-travel growth.

Analysts do see overall earnings momentum continuing and expect earnings growth to reach about 111% in the coming year. For investors, the question may be whether FLYW shares can keep up with this momentum after having already returned about 32% year to date (YTD). The stock is not cheap—it trades at about 81x earnings—but Wall Street is optimistic, as FLYW has nine Buy ratings, one Strong Buy, and five Holds.

A More Direct Travel Marketplace Firm

Airbnb is known for its host-driven lodging platform, with accommodations available around the world. The company's broad geographic distribution means that many portions of its business were only minimally impacted by the conflict. A ceasefire may boost bookings in certain regions surrounding the Middle East, for instance, or thanks to restored consumer confidence among those taking international trips.

A bigger sign to watch for might be whether an end to the U.S.-Iran conflict helps reduce travel costs. Cost-conscious travelers have historically turned to Airbnb for its value relative to hotels in many regions. If a ceasefire drives down prices offered by hosts—or if hotel costs rise faster than Airbnb costs—the company may benefit.

Revenue for Airbnb has been solid—it climbed 18% YOY to $2.7 billion in the latest reported quarter, and the company expects low-to-mid-teen revenue growth for the full year. Emphasizing the importance of cost, the company's Reserve Now, Pay Later policy has helped to power growth in stays and other metrics. The company is also keeping costs down by increasingly utilizing AI in coding and customer assistance.

Airbnb estimated that the Middle East conflict posed a drag of about 100 basis points on nights/seats, so a resolution there could have a noticeable bearing going forward. Still, with lingering concerns about housing regulation, competition, consumer discretionary spending, and more, there are additional factors for investors to keep in mind. Nonetheless, analysts see ABNB stock as a strong option: the company enjoys 23 Buy ratings, two Strong Buy ratings, 13 Holds, and one Sell, in addition to modest upside potential of 6% even after rising by more than 8% YTD.