U.S. Bancorp Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
October 14, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • US Bancorp reported Q3 EPS of $1.16 (or $1.18 ex-merger), record net revenue of $6.3 B, and achieved an 11% linked-quarter net interest income increase while controlling expenses. The bank added $200 M to its loan loss reserve and ended the quarter with a CET1 ratio of 9.7%.
  • Digital engagement and payments momentum continued with the launch of Talic Register, real-time payment volumes roughly 17 times higher than full-year 2020, and a 4.9% year-over-year increase in total payments revenue.
  • Average loans grew 3.9% quarter-over-quarter—up 6.5% in commercial, 4.7% in mortgages, and 6.0% in credit cards—while average deposits rose 5.9% led by interest-bearing balances. The deposit mix shifted as customers responded to higher rates with more interest-bearing accounts.
  • Credit quality remained strong with a nonperforming asset ratio of 0.20%, charge-offs at 0.19%, and an allowance for credit losses of $6.5 B (1.88% of loans). Management expects the net charge-off ratio to normalize above historic lows over time as borrowing costs rise.
  • The bank reaffirmed full-year 2022 goals of 5.5%–6% net revenue growth, mid-teens taxable equivalent NII growth, and positive operating leverage of at least 200 bps. The planned MUFG Union Bank acquisition is on track to close in Q4 ’22, with pro forma CET1 at ~8.3% rising to ~9% in four quarters and a ~20% IRR.
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Earnings Conference Call
U.S. Bancorp Q3 2022
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the U.S. Bancorp third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Following a review of the results by Andy Cecere, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Terry Dolan, Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer, there will be a formal question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press one, then zero on your touch-tone phone. You may remove yourself from the queue by repeating the one, then zero command. This call will be recorded and available for replay beginning today at approximately 11:00 A.M. Central Time. I will now turn the conference over to George Andersen, Director of Investor Relations for U.S. Bancorp.

George Andersen
George Andersen
Director of Investor Relations at U.S. Bancorp

Thank you, Allan, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Andy Cecere, our Chairman, President, and CEO, and Terry Dolan, our Vice Chair and Chief Financial Officer. During their prepared remarks, Andy and Terry will be referencing a slide presentation. A copy of the slide presentation, as well as our earnings release and supplemental analyst schedules are available on our website at usbank.com. I would like to remind you that any forward-looking statements made during today's call are subject to risk and uncertainty. Factors that could materially change our current forward-looking assumptions are described on page two of today's presentation in our press release and in our Form 10-K and subsequent reports on file with the SEC. I'll now turn the call over to Andy.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Thanks, George. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining our call. Following our prepared remarks, Terry and I will take any questions you have. I'll begin on slide three. In the third quarter, we reported earnings per share of $1.16, which include $0.02 per share of merger and integration charges related to the planned acquisition of MUFG Union Bank. Excluding these notable items, we reported earnings per share of $1.18 for the quarter. During the third quarter, we achieved record net revenue totaling $6.3 billion. Third quarter results were highlighted by strong revenue growth, well-controlled expenses, and stable credit quality. This quarter, we added $200 million to our loan loss reserve, reflecting loan growth and our consistent through the cycle underwriting approach to risk management. At September 30th, our CET1 capital ratio was 9.7%.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Our tangible book value per share totaled $20.73 at September 30th, or 3.2% lower than the prior quarter, driven by the impact of rising interest rates on our available for sale securities. Slide four provides key performance metrics. Excluding notable items, we delivered a return on average assets of 1.24% and a return on average common equity of 16.2%. Our return on tangible common equity was 21.4% on a core basis. Slide five highlights continued positive trends in digital engagement as consumer and business customers gain a deeper understanding of our digital capabilities and benefit from our digital plus human approach.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Slide six shows progress across our digital and payments initiatives that are both deepening our core competencies and expanding our competitive advantage, which we believe will drive meaningful profit and return differentiation to our company. One example of our digital initiatives is our launch of Talech Register, a next-generation all-in-one payments and business analytics platform that is helping to bring greater simplicity, convenience, and efficiencies to the point of sale for our business banking customers. On the right side of the slide, you can see the continuing momentum we are gaining in real-time payments transactions. Year-to-date through September 30th, the total number of transactions are 17 times higher than the full year of 2020. Recently, we introduced an innovative real-time payment solution to auto dealers, where we provide loan funds instantly after a loan contract is finalized.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

This gives our participating dealer clients greater control over cash flow and helps to improve their day-to-day operational efficiency. Turning to slide seven. Our business banking initiative continues to gain traction with steady progress, both in growing accounts and expanding wallet share. Growth in relationships with both banking and payments products has continued to meaningfully outpace growth in total relationships over the past 12 months. Looking ahead, we expect recently launched and innovative offerings in development to help further deepen our existing relationships between business banking and payments customers. Now let me turn the call over to Terry, who will provide more detail on the quarter.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Thanks, Andy. If you turn to slide eight, I'll start with a balance sheet review followed by a discussion of third quarter earnings trends. Average loans increased 3.9% compared with the second quarter, driven by 6.5% growth in commercial loans, 4.7% growth in mortgage loans, and 6.0% growth in credit card balances. Commercial loan growth reflected increased business activity and higher utilization rates across both large corporate and middle market portfolios. Underlying demand remains healthy as we continue to focus on appropriate return opportunities to prudently deploy our capital. In the retail portfolio, we saw solid linked quarter growth and year-over-year growth in credit card balances, reflecting strong spending activity and lower payment rates. Purchase mortgage market share gains and lower prepayment activity continued to support residential mortgage balance growth.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Turning to slide nine, total average deposits increased slightly compared to the second quarter. Growth in total interest-bearing deposits more than offset the impact of lower total non-interest-bearing deposit balances as customers respond to the rising interest rate environment. Total average deposits increased by 5.9% compared to a year ago. Slide 10 shows credit quality trends, which continue to be strong across our loan portfolio. The ratio of non-performing assets to loans and other real estate was 0.20% at September 30th, compared with 0.23% at June 30th and 0.32% a year ago. Our third quarter charge-off ratio of 0.19%, improved slightly versus the second quarter of 2022 and third quarter of 2021 levels.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

The allowance for credit losses as of September 30th totaled $6.5 billion or 1.88% of period-end loans. The $200 million increase in our reserve this quarter was primarily reflective of loan growth and to a lesser extent, uncertainties in the economic outlook. Slide 11 provides an earnings summary. In the third quarter, we reported $1.18 per share, excluding $0.02 per share of merger and integration charges related to the planned acquisition of MUFG Union Bank. Turning to Slide 12. Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis totaled $3.9 billion, representing an 11.3% increase compared with the second quarter and a 20.6% increase from a year ago.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Linked-quarter growth was driven by strong earning asset growth and a 24 basis point increase in the net interest margin, which benefited from rising interest rates, partially offset by deposit pricing and short-term borrowing costs. Slide 13 highlights trends in non-interest income. Non-interest income decreased 3.1% on a linked-quarter basis as declines in mortgage banking and treasury management revenues were partially offset by stronger corporate payments revenue and an increase in other non-interest revenue. Compared with a year ago, non-interest income declined 8.3%, primarily due to lower mortgage banking revenue, reduced deposit service charges reflecting changes in our policies, and lower treasury management fees due to rising rates, partially offset by higher payments revenue and trust and investment management fees.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

The decline in mortgage revenue primarily reflected lower refinancing activity in the market, which continued to pressure total application volumes and the related gain on sale margins given excess industry capacity. In the third quarter, total payments revenue increased by 4.9% compared with a year earlier. Slide 14 provides linked quarter and year-over-year revenue growth trends for our three payments businesses. Because of the cyclical nature of our payments businesses, we believe year-over-year trends are a better indicator of underlying business performance in a normal environment. Credit and debit card fee revenue decreased 0.5% on a year-over-year basis as the impact of higher credit card and debit card volume was more than offset by continued lower prepaid card activity.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Excluding prepaid card activity, which was elevated last year in connection with supporting unemployment programs, credit and debit card fee revenue would have increased 3.0% compared with the third quarter of 2021. The bottom half of the slide illustrates the year-over-year growth rates in both merchant processing and corporate payments fee revenue over the last several quarters. Third quarter merchant processing revenue increased 3.6% year-over-year. Growth was negatively impacted by unfavorable foreign currency exchange rates given market volatility in Europe and specifically in the U.K. Excluding the FX impact, year-over-year growth in merchant fee revenue was approximately 9.4%. Slide 15 provides some additional information on our payment services business.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

On the right side of the slide, you will see the continued strong momentum we are seeing in our tech-led revenue and partnerships within our merchant acquiring business. The key to that trajectory is the strong growth we have seen in new tech-led partnerships. Through the third quarter, new tech-led partnerships year-to-date were 2.5 times the number of new partnerships we had acquired in the entire year of 2019, and these partnerships are continuing to grow. Turning to slide 16. Noninterest expense increased 1.9% on a linked quarter basis, excluding merger and integration costs associated with the pending acquisition of Union Bank. The change in expense was driven by higher compensation, professional services, and marketing and business development expenses. Slide 17 highlights our capital position.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Our common equity Tier 1 capital ratio at September 30th was 9.7%. On slide 18, I'll provide some forward-looking guidance for U.S. Bank on a standalone basis. This guidance does not include any potential impact of Union Bank. Let me start with full year 2022 guidance, which is consistent with our previous expectations. We continue to expect total net revenue to increase 5.5%-6% in 2022 compared to 2021. We expect mid-teen growth in taxable equivalent net interest income, which is slightly improved from our previous outlook of low to mid-teens growth.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

We continue to expect a decline in fee revenue for the full year, primarily due to the impact of higher interest rates on mortgage revenue due to lower refinancings in the market, lower deposit service charges due to pricing changes, and a decline in other non-interest income. We continue to expect positive operating leverage of at least 200 basis points in 2022, excluding the impact of merger and integration-related costs associated with the Union Bank acquisition. For the full year of 2022, we expect our taxable equivalent tax rate to be approximately 22%. I'll now provide guidance for the fourth quarter. We expect both total revenue and total core expenses, excluding merger and integration costs, to increase by approximately 2% on a linked quarter basis. Net interest income will continue to be supported by earning asset growth and higher rates.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

However, our fee revenue will be lower, reflecting typical seasonality in some of our fee-based businesses. Credit quality remains strong. Over the next few quarters, we expect the net charge-off ratio to remain lower than historical levels, but to normalize over time. Changes in the allowance for credit losses near term will primarily reflect loan growth and changes in the economic outlook. If you turn to slide 19, I'll provide an update on our previously announced pending acquisition of Union Bank. In September 2021, we announced that we had entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the core regional banking franchise of MUFG Union Bank. We continue to make significant progress in planning for the closing of the deal in the fourth quarter of 2022 while we await regulatory approval.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

As you know, regulatory approvals are not within the company's control and may impact the timing of the closing of the deal. As a reminder, we expect to close on the deal approximately 45 days after being granted U.S. regulatory approval. As previously discussed, we are targeting a conversion date in the first half of 2023. The financial merits of the deal remain intact. Our EPS accretion estimates are unchanged, and we continue to estimate the acquisition will generate an internal rate of return of approximately 20%, which is well above our cost of capital. The company's target CET1 capital ratio is 8.5%. Based on interest rates as of October 13th, our CET1 capital ratio at close would approximate 8.3%.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

We expect the CET ratio to increase towards 9% as the purchase accounting valuation adjustments accrete into capital through earnings. I'll hand it back to Andy for closing remarks.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Thanks, Terry. The investments we have made and continue to make across our business lines are paying off in terms of improved customer experience, new customer acquisition, and deeper relationships. Expense management is a priority, and we continue to target positive operating leverage in 2022 and beyond. We look forward to closing on the Union Bank acquisition, pending regulatory approval. This is a unique opportunity at scale in one of our core markets, and we remain confident in the strategic and financial merits of the deal. The current credit environment is benign. In fact, our net charge-off ratio in the third quarter remained near historic lows, and we are not seeing any meaningful early-stage metrics that cause us concern. That being said, we recognize that pressure points are building in several areas of the economy that could lead to stress in the future.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Borrowing costs are increasing, inflation is high, saving rates are starting to decline, and the stock market is well off its highs. While the backdrop is favorable today, it would not be surprising to us to see an economic slowdown develop at some point driven by lower confidence levels, which may lead to reduced spending and business investment. There are a number of scenarios that may play out over the next several quarters. We are preparing for a range of possible outcomes by prudently managing credit, liquidity and capital so that we continue to grow within our through the cycle risk management framework and deliver industry-leading returns. In summary, our investments are paying off. We remain diligent stewards of capital. Our balance sheet is strong and our focus is firmly fixed on managing the company for the long term. I'll close by saying thank you to our employees.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Your hard work and focus in doing the right thing for our customers and communities every day is recognized and appreciated. We'll now open it up to Q&A.

Operator

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you have a question, please press one, then zero on your touch-tone phone. You may remove yourself from the queue by repeating the one then zero command. Once again, if you have a question, please press one, then zero on your touch-tone phone. John Pancari with Evercore is online for a question. Go ahead.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Morning, John.

John Pancari
John Pancari
Senior Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Evercore

On your commentary around the CET1 falling to 8.3% at close but needs to get back up to the 9% before you resume buybacks. Can you give us a little more color on that in terms of timing around when you think you can reach that 9% with the PA accretion and how we should think about the magnitude of buybacks at that time? Thanks.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. Thanks, John. Again, our expectation is a closing of 8.3%, but we do expect that that will get to roughly 9% within about four quarters. You know, a big part of that will be, you know, obviously earnings growth, but driven by the accretion of the mark-to-market that will end up impacting earnings during that particular time frame. You know, our expectation and what we have been signaling in the past is that, you know, we would start our share buyback program once we get to that 9%. So about four quarters.

John Pancari
John Pancari
Senior Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Evercore

Okay. All right. Thank you. That's helpful. Just separately, can you just give a little more color on the payments trends that you're seeing, both in the merchant processing and in corporate payments businesses? Maybe if you could just talk about the potential moderation in activity there that you could see as the economy reacts to the Fed actions?

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah, John, this is Andy, and it's interesting, you know, from a credit card spend standpoint, while the categories of spend, as we've talked about before, have shifted a bit, the level of spend is still fairly strong, about 10% on a year-over-year basis and about 30% above pre-COVID levels. We did get impacted, as Terry noted in his prepared comments, by the FX rate of the pound in our merchant processing, and excluding that, our revenues would have been up just over 9%. We, as well, sort of a related topic, we see, you know, for two years, we have seen our consumer deposit levels by account increase.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

As we mentioned last quarter, it's been flat for the second quarter, and it's relatively flat, down modestly here in the third quarter. We would expect, you know, some moderation of spend, but we're not seeing it yet.

John Pancari
John Pancari
Senior Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Evercore

Okay. Thanks. Take my question.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Thank you.

Operator

Matt O'Connor with Deutsche Bank is online with a question.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Matt, how are you this morning?

Nathan Stein
Nathan Stein
VP and Research Analyst of Equity Research at Deutsche Bank

Hello, this is Nathan Stein on behalf of Matt O'Connor. I just want to follow up quickly on the payments outlook. I think previously you've talked about higher than normal year-over-year growth in the second half of this year before moderating to high single digits next year. Just to follow up on what you were just talking about, does that guidance still make sense in this environment?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. I mean, our expectation is with respect to, you know, our payments revenues of high single digits. We think that, you know, based upon what we are seeing with respect to consumer spend at this particular point in time, that is still very realistic. You know, as Andy said, you know, relative to pre-COVID, volumes are continuing to be very strong. While there is a bit of a shift with respect to where that spend is occurring, it's still continuing. The other thing is that, you know, where, if and when transaction levels start to, you know, tail off, I think the impact of inflation will have an offsetting effect. We still feel pretty confident about it.

Nathan Stein
Nathan Stein
VP and Research Analyst of Equity Research at Deutsche Bank

Okay, great. Thanks so much. That's helpful. One quick follow-up question. Can you just touch on the plan to manage the balance sheet post the deal closing, whenever that is? I think total assets were just above $600 billion at the end of this quarter, and with Union Bank, it'll push you above the $700 billion threshold. How are you thinking about that going forward?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. You know, our expectation is that, you know, we'll continue to manage the balance sheet in a very prudent way, you know, looking for, and supporting relationships that are higher profitable sort of relationships. You know, our expectation is that, you know, 'cause I think where you're heading is, really related to Cat II. Our expectation is at the earliest that we would get into that category is the end of 2024. But, you know, our ability to manage risk-weighted assets and balance sheet levels may extend that to some extent.

Nathan Stein
Nathan Stein
VP and Research Analyst of Equity Research at Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Operator

Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo is online with a question.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Morning, Mike.

Mike Mayo
Mike Mayo
Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo

Hi. I think at a recent conference, you said that you will not achieve as much synergies from Union Bank next year as you originally thought, but no change in EPS guidance. Did I hear that correctly?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah, that is correct. If you think about the dynamics, Mike, you know, while the timing has changed and the synergies associated with the $900 million of synergies that we expect to achieve when fully implemented, you know, the timing will be offset to some extent by the accretion of the mark-to-market will be a little bit stronger. We still feel pretty confident with respect to the accretion levels that we have guided in the past.

Mike Mayo
Mike Mayo
Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo

Right. Instead of 75%, you said 40%-45%.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah, 40%-50%.

Mike Mayo
Mike Mayo
Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo

40%-50% and 6% EPS accretive. If you're getting less merger synergies next year than you originally thought, and you have the same EPS guidance, are you de facto increasing the end result of expected accretion from Union Bank?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. I don't think that we're moving off of our estimates that we have provided in the past at this particular point in time. I think we need to get beyond the approval and then the closing, you know, before we would, I think, significantly change any estimates at this point.

Mike Mayo
Mike Mayo
Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo

Okay. Any early guidance for next year? Some other banks are giving some general, kind of guideposts for 2023 in terms of operating leverage. This, your guidance is saying this would be the, you know, some of the best operating leverage in over five years, I guess. Just trying to figure out how confident you are in that continuing. I know you invested for a number of years in the tech infrastructure, and now you hope to capitalize on that at a time when business is coming back. You know, how much follow-through should investors expect for this positive operating leverage?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah, Mike, we're focused on positive operating leverage on a core basis, and we'll continue to achieve that. You know, next year has a fairly large moving part with Union Bank coming on. That is gonna be our top priority, is to make sure we successfully convert and integrate that into the company, which will allow for more positive operating leverage. That we haven't provided any guidance update on that yet.

Mike Mayo
Mike Mayo
Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo

All right. Thank you.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Erika Najarian from UBS is online with a question.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Morning, Erika.

Erika Najarian
Erika Najarian
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance at UBS

Hi. Good morning.

Erika Najarian
Erika Najarian
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance at UBS

Terry, I'm gonna have to ask you about the 8.3% pro forma CET1 that you mentioned you're estimating at close. You know, I think I didn't realize that there has been a significant conversation in the market that perhaps has contributed to the three-month underperformance with concern about the widening of the interest rate marks. I think that at announcement you were looking at, you know, a 50 basis point loan mark up on UB's loan portfolio that you're bringing over. You know, given that, you know, a significant portion of that portfolio is Resi, I think there was a lot of math being done in the buy side, you know, that was, let's say, 100 basis points lower, you know, than what you were giving us.

Erika Najarian
Erika Najarian
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance at UBS

I guess my question here is, you know, how is the Street getting the math wrong? Or are there protections that are built into the deal or, you know, are there hedges on USB's balance sheet that seems to be protecting your pro forma CET1, you know, from a greater day one mark relative to how interest rates have moved since announcement?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah, I think it could be a combination of different things. I mean, for example, there is, you know, an expectation that they will deliver, you know, a certain level of tangible book value. You know, to the extent that their available for sale portfolio is impacted prior to the acquisition, you know, there is kind of a make whole provision within the agreement related to the available for sale securities. That is part of it. I think, you know, some of it could be just, you know, what the assumptions are related to the duration of, you know, the Resi portfolio.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

You know, again, we'll end up looking at and managing in this rate environment the balance sheet as prudently as we can to ensure that, you know, we're allocating capital to the appropriate businesses during this timeframe. It's a combination of a variety of different things, Erika.

Erika Najarian
Erika Najarian
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance at UBS

Got it. I guess that's the question. As a follow-up question, you know, that $6.25 billion that they have to deliver, you know, there's a make-whole provision on the AFS portfolio but not on the loan portfolio, I'm presuming is what you're saying, Terry.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

That is true. Yep.

Erika Najarian
Erika Najarian
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance at UBS

Got it. I'm presuming also there's a potential CDI offset at close, you know, that could help offset, but obviously, that would be a higher amortization cost in day two and after.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah, I mean, it's a combination of a whole variety of things. I mean, it's not only the interest rate marks, but it's, you know, what does the loan portfolio look like in terms of overall quality relative to kind of what our original estimates were. We think that is slightly better. The CDI is. I mean, you have to look at all of the different moving parts, you know, in terms of coming up with what we think the final impact of the mark to market is going to be.

Erika Najarian
Erika Najarian
Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance at UBS

Got it. Thank you so much.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research is online with a question.

Bill Carcache
Bill Carcache
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Thank you. Good morning, Andy and Terry. How are you?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Bill.

Bill Carcache
Bill Carcache
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Hi. We saw a nice remixing out of available for sale into held to maturity. Wanted to follow up on that and more specifically, whether there's room for you to take the mix of available for sale higher. It'd be helpful if you could just give some color on what guides your decision on how high the HTM mix can go.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah, great question, Bill. You know, today, you know, we're currently at about 53% held to maturity versus available for sale. You know, we moved some securities in early July when rates dipped that allowed us to be able to kind of increase that percentage. The other thing that we take into consideration is the fact that, you know, with respect to the AFS portfolio, you know, there's also floating rate securities that have very little impact with respect to AOCI. When you end up combining that together, you know, it's about 60% that is protected, substantially protected from movements in interest rates. Think about it, almost as a 60/40 sort of split in terms of the sensitivity to interest rates. You know, is there opportunity?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

I mean, we'll continue to look at, you know, whether that makes sense, relative to, you know, our balance sheet positioning. At least right now, we feel pretty comfortable with that mix. It gives us the AOCI protection, as well as some flexibility with respect to managing the balance sheet.

Bill Carcache
Bill Carcache
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

That's helpful.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

The other thing you have to kind of think about is that, you know, we have Union Bank, you know, that hopefully will be closing on here in the fourth quarter. You know, that ends up influencing, you know, decisions that we make with respect to, you know, the positioning of the balance sheet and of the securities portfolio. You know, also with respect to, you know, deposits. We're gonna have a significant amount of deposits coming on, and that's gonna help us as well.

Bill Carcache
Bill Carcache
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Very helpful. I wanted to follow up on funding and more specifically the decrease in non-interest-bearing deposits. Is it reasonable to expect that your mix of non-interest-bearing deposits is gonna gradually revert to pre-COVID levels as the Fed proceeds with QT? You know, maybe if you could address that, if you have any views sort of at the industry level and then specifically for USB.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. Well, I certainly think that QT is gonna put pressure on deposits overall. You know, as interest rates rise, you'll continue to see a shift out of non-interest-bearing toward interest-bearing. I think that, you know, the assumption with respect to pre-COVID may make sense depending upon how much they bring their balance sheet down, et cetera, how much liquidity they leave in the system. With respect to us, you know, it probably, you know, if I had to make estimates, I would say that it probably stays a little bit better than where it was pre-pandemic, in part because we've, you know, we've grown our consumer portfolio, which, you know, tends to offset that.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

We've also worked hard to, you know, focus within our corporate trust business on retaining those deposits that are more operational in nature. Because they're more operational in nature, they tend to be more non-interest-bearing as opposed to interest-bearing.

Bill Carcache
Bill Carcache
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

That makes sense. Sticking with that theme, you know, in terms of the mix of debt relative to your overall funding, that's still well below fourth quarter 2019 levels. Can you speak to the likelihood that we should expect that to gradually remix to pre-COVID levels?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Again, I think the broad assumption would be fair, but again, keep in mind that Union Bank is going to be coming on and, you know, they actually have a higher percentage within their deposit base that's consumer based. I think you have to kind of look at the entire mix. I think U.S. Bank specifically is probably going to be in a better position than we were pre-pandemic.

Bill Carcache
Bill Carcache
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

That's great. Finally, if I could squeeze in one last one. Could you speak to your ability to bring off balance sheet money market funds back on balance sheet? Maybe some of the dynamics surrounding that.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. Great question. You know, currently we have about $130 billion in money market funds. You know, that is a business that's very tied to our institutional investor services business. You know, based upon what we need to do from a funding perspective, we have the ability from a pricing point of view to bring that back on balance sheet or off balance sheet. But it's, you know, it's pricing decisions that then influence customer behavior. It is a great source for us from a funding standpoint, you know, as there is more pressure on deposits going forward.

Bill Carcache
Bill Carcache
Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wolfe Research

Great. Thank you for taking my questions.

Operator

Gerard Cassidy with RBC is online with a question.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Thank you. Morning, Gerard.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Go ahead.

Gerard Cassidy
Gerard Cassidy
Managing Director, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy, and Large Cap Bank Analyst at RBC

Hi, Terry. Hi, Andy. Terry, I think in your comments you talked about the residential mortgage business and the gain on sale margins were lower, and I think you referenced, you know, there's still excess capacity in that line of business. Can you share with us your outlook? Do you see some of that capacity coming out in the fourth quarter if rates remain elevated for, you know, the refi activity, of course, being negatively affected by elevated long-term rates?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. We certainly are seeing capacity come down in the industry. I think you've seen, you know, various announcements of bank and non-bank mortgage operations, you know, kind of pulling back or reducing capacity. I think it probably still needs to reset to some extent, what's happening with rising rates and the impact that it might have on both refinancing as well as home sales. We do see it coming down. Our expectation is that gain on sale margins stabilize and probably for us improve a bit. In the third quarter, you know, our gain on sale was down maybe a little bit more than what we had anticipated, but about half of that, excuse me, about half of that is really driven by the mix between correspondent and retail.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

The other half of it is really more revenue recognition, some timing issues and some secondary kind of market valuation issues, which we think will reverse a bit.

Gerard Cassidy
Gerard Cassidy
Managing Director, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy, and Large Cap Bank Analyst at RBC

Very good. I saw when we looked at your average loan portfolio, obviously you had some very nice growth in C&I, very strong growth year-over-year. We're hearing some market chatter, and I don't know if it's just the equity REITs are squawking, but apparently the commercial real estate mortgage business might be a little more less liquid today. Any color that you guys can offer on what you're seeing in commercial mortgage real estate, is it an area that you're pulling back from? I know you had growth, but maybe some color and insights on what you're hearing and seeing and what your views are for that business.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. Certainly, you know, with respect to commercial real estate, you know, it's an important business for us and, you know, one that we'll continue to be very focused on. I think part of it is just dynamics in the marketplace. You know, if you end up looking at the large corporate REIT sort of financing, you know, we continue to lend in that particular space, and we actually probably saw some growth in the third quarter. You know, we do know home builders are starting to pull back, you know, and even making decisions to maybe pull out of potential projects that they were planning on doing.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

In the middle market space, in terms of commercial real estate, you know, it's actually still, from a pricing standpoint, pretty competitive and, you know, people extending, you know, terms associated with that. That's the space that we're not comfortable with at this particular point in the cycle. You know, we're seeing a little bit of a pressure maybe in the middle market space, but, you know, we're fine with that.

Gerard Cassidy
Gerard Cassidy
Managing Director, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy, and Large Cap Bank Analyst at RBC

Very good. Thank you.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Thanks, Gerard.

Operator

Ken Usdin with Jefferies is online with a question.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Morning, Ken.

Ken Usdin
Ken Usdin
Banks Analyst at Jefferies

Hey, good morning, Terry. Thanks. I want to just ask a little bit more on the whole outlook for deposits. I know you talked about the mix. You know, just wondering just what you guys are seeing given the fact that you have a little bit of a different mix versus most of the peers in terms of any updates and what you're thinking about where betas eventually go to, just given that we're in a completely different, you know, rate regime than we might have all thought six months ago.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. Well, maybe I'll kind of start just by reiterating. If we end up looking at the mix of our deposit base, it has changed a little bit relative to maybe what we were three, four years ago, et cetera, or certainly when we went through the last rate-rising cycle. A little stronger consumer, a little more focus around operational deposits within our trust business, et cetera. Trust is also, you know, on a relative basis, represents only about 15% of our deposit base today. Then again, think about Union Bank coming on, and, you know, some of the dynamics that that will bring. You know, coming back to deposit betas then maybe with that context, you know, we're actually performing probably better than what we might have expected.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

I think deposit betas were about in the second quarter, about 30%, you know, coming up from about 20%. You know, we would expect that to be maybe in the high 30s as we get into the fourth quarter. But certainly, you know, as rates continue to rise and if the Fed continues to be very aggressive, you know, it's gonna migrate, you know, to higher percentages. Our through the cycle estimate right now is still kind of mid-30s, though, when you kind of think about, you know, the entire rate cycle that we're going through.

Ken Usdin
Ken Usdin
Banks Analyst at Jefferies

Okay. As a follow-up to that, you know, as that plays forward, you're still expecting, you know, good NII growth into the fourth quarter. Can NII... I know you're not giving 2023 guidance, but just, can you help us understand, like, what is the gives and takes between—you know, to make, to— Can you still grow NII post the fourth quarter sequentially, or is there just a reality check about some of these mix and beta functions that make that tougher?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. Well, I think that, you know, we can continue to grow NII as we get beyond the fourth quarter. What I would say, though, is that probably the pace of growth changes in the industry, and that'll be a function of, you know, the deposit betas changing, and you know, the loan growth that, you know, certainly the industry has been experiencing, I think, is very strong. I don't know whether it'll keep that particular base, you know, as we kind of continue to move forward.

Ken Usdin
Ken Usdin
Banks Analyst at Jefferies

All right. Understood. Thank you, Terry.

Operator

Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley is online with a question.

Betsy Graseck
Betsy Graseck
Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research at Morgan Stanley

Hi. Good morning.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Hey, Betsy.

Ken Usdin
Ken Usdin
Banks Analyst at Jefferies

Hey, Betsy.

Betsy Graseck
Betsy Graseck
Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research at Morgan Stanley

On your own securities front, it would be helpful, maybe you could give us a sense as to how we should be thinking about the pull to par in the AFS book. Like, if, I know it's a big if, but if rates don't change from here, you know, how many quarters or years is it that we should be breaking into our models?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. Well, I think what we have said is that the duration of the portfolio is a little over five years. You know, if you think about that, you know, I think that probably gives you some guide with respect to how AOCI kind of comes into the capital equation.

Betsy Graseck
Betsy Graseck
Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research at Morgan Stanley

Okay. It should, you know, it's like a longer than five-year period.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. A little bit longer, but not much.

Betsy Graseck
Betsy Graseck
Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research at Morgan Stanley

Okay. Is there anything you're thinking about with regard to restructuring the books once Union Bank comes on?

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Yeah. You know, it's again, we'll take a look at all of the balance sheet and kind of see where it makes sense. You know, we do expect that we might remix the securities portfolio when it comes on. You know, we may end up increasing HTM as a result of what we bring over, et cetera. You know, it is definitely something we will take a look at.

Betsy Graseck
Betsy Graseck
Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research at Morgan Stanley

Just separately on the consumer lens that you have in the payments side, could you just give us a sense as to what you saw in 3Q? I know 3Q tends to be a relatively strong quarter for you. Any changes in behavior? Any insights as to how you think 4Q will end up shaping up?

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Betsy, the consumer spend levels overall continue to be strong. They were up in credit card spend about 10% on a year-over-year basis, about 30% above pre-COVID levels. The mix of categories has changed a bit, consistent with what we've talked about before, a little bit away from hard goods to more services and a little bit away from discretionary to nondiscretionary. That shift in spend that we have been discussing continues, but the overall levels are also still very strong.

Betsy Graseck
Betsy Graseck
Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research at Morgan Stanley

The savings levels of the consumers are hanging in there? Deposit levels.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

Yes, Betsy. I mentioned that we saw increases across all strata of balances for about two years, but the last two quarters have been stable across all the categories. Not growing anymore, but not shrinking dramatically as well.

Betsy Graseck
Betsy Graseck
Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research at Morgan Stanley

All right. Thanks so much.

Andy Cecere
Andy Cecere
Chairman, President, and CEO at U.S. Bancorp

You bet.

Terry Dolan
Terry Dolan
Vice Chair and CFO at U.S. Bancorp

Hey, Ken, I just wanna clarify something with respect to deposit betas, just to make sure that I've got the percentages right. The deposit betas in the second quarter were about 20%. Deposit betas in the third quarter were just shy of 30%. We would expect, you know, that increase to continue as, you know, rates rise and to accelerate a bit. You know, and again, probably in the high 30s when we get into the fourth quarter.

Operator

We have no further questions at this time. I will now turn it back to George Andersen. Please continue.

George Andersen
George Andersen
Director of Investor Relations at U.S. Bancorp

Thank you for listening to our earnings call. Please contact the investor relations department if you have any follow-up questions.

Operator

This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Andy Cecere
      Andy Cecere
      Chairman, President, and CEO
    • George Andersen
      George Andersen
      Director of Investor Relations
    • Terry Dolan
      Terry Dolan
      Vice Chair and CFO
Analysts
    • Betsy Graseck
      Global Head of Banks and Diversified Finance Research at Morgan Stanley
    • Bill Carcache
      Senior Equity Research Analyst at Wolfe Research
    • Erika Najarian
      Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst of Large-Cap Banks & Consumer Finance at UBS
    • Gerard Cassidy
      Managing Director, Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy, and Large Cap Bank Analyst at RBC
    • John Pancari
      Senior Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst at Evercore
    • Ken Usdin
      Banks Analyst at Jefferies
    • Mike Mayo
      Head of U.S. Large-Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo
    • Nathan Stein
      VP and Research Analyst of Equity Research at Deutsche Bank
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