SBA Communications Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 1, 2022

Key Takeaways

  • Q2 outperformance: Total GAAP site leasing revenue of $580.2 M and cash revenues of $570.4 M beat expectations, prompting SBA to raise its full-year outlook.
  • Solid leasing growth: Same-tower recurring cash leasing revenues rose 4.4% globally and 4.1% domestically, driven by strong bookings and healthy backlogs with major carriers covering 96% of incremental domestic revenue.
  • Brazil tower acquisition: SBA agreed to buy ~2,600 GTS towers in Brazil for $725 M, expecting ~$68 M of annual tower cash flow and immediate AFFO accretion upon closing in Q4.
  • Record services segment: Services revenue hit $71.8 M with $17.3 M operating profit—the fifth straight record quarter—and backlogs at all-time highs, leading to a $40 M raise in services revenue guidance.
  • Strong balance sheet & payout: Net debt of $12.3 B (7.0× leverage), 93% fixed-rate debt at 2.9% average interest, plus a 22.4% dividend increase supports liquidity and shareholder returns.
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Earnings Conference Call
SBA Communications Q2 2022
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the SBA second quarter results conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time. If you should require assistance during the call, please press star then zero. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to our host, Mark DeRussy, VP of Finance. Please go ahead.

Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA

Good evening, and thank you for joining us for SBA's second quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Here with me today are Jeff Stoops, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Brendan Cavanagh, our Chief Financial Officer. Some of the information we will discuss on this call is forward-looking, including, but not limited to, any guidance for 2022 and beyond. In today's press release and in our SEC filings, we detail material risks that may cause our future results to differ from our expectations. Our statements are as of today, August first, and we have no obligation to update any forward-looking statements we may make. In addition, our comments will include non-GAAP financial measures and other key operating metrics.

Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA

The reconciliation of, and information regarding these items can be found in our supplemental financial data package, which is located on the landing page of our investor relations website. With that, I will now turn it over to Brendan to discuss our second quarter results.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Thanks, Mark. Good evening. SBA continued building on our strong first quarter with an even better second quarter, with across the board results ahead of our expectations and backlogs supportive of an equally good or possibly even better second half of the year. Total GAAP site leasing revenues for the second quarter were $580.2 million, and cash site leasing revenues were $570.4 million. Foreign exchange rates were largely in line with our previously forecasted FX rate estimates for the quarter, but were a tailwind on comparisons to the second quarter of 2021, positively impacting revenues by $3.4 million on a year-over-year basis.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Same-tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth for the second quarter, which is calculated on a constant currency basis, was 4.4% over the second quarter of 2021, including the impact of 3.7% of churn. On a gross basis, same-tower growth was 8.1%. Domestic same-tower recurring cash leasing revenue growth over the second quarter of last year was 7.1% on a gross basis and 4.1% on a net basis, including 3% of churn. Domestic operational leasing activity or bookings, representing new revenue placed under contract during the second quarter, was very strong again and incrementally higher than the first quarter of this year. In addition, our domestic new lease and new amendment application backlogs remain very healthy as well.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

The combination of our strong second quarter leasing activity level and our backlogs have allowed us to increase our outlook for new 2022 domestic site leasing revenue from organic lease up. During the second quarter, amendment activity represented 66% of our domestic bookings, with 34% coming from new leases. The Big Four carriers of AT&T, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Dish represented 96% of total incremental domestic leasing revenue signed up during the quarter. Internationally, on a constant currency basis, same-tower cash leasing revenue growth was 5.6% net, including 7.1% of churn or 12.7% on a gross basis. International leasing activity was very good again and also higher than we saw in the first quarter. We continued to see strong customer activity levels in many of our markets, as well as increased contributions from inflation-based escalators.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

In Brazil, our largest international market, we had another particularly strong quarter. Same tower organic growth in Brazil was 14.2% on a constant currency basis. International churn was elevated in the quarter as anticipated, due primarily to carrier consolidations and other customer financial challenges, mainly in Guatemala and Panama. During the second quarter, 80.6% of consolidated cash site leasing revenue was denominated in U.S. dollars. The majority of non-U.S. dollar denominated revenue was from Brazil, with Brazil representing 13.1% of consolidated cash site leasing revenues during the quarter and 9.9% of cash site leasing revenue excluding revenues from pass-through expenses. Tower cash flow for the second quarter was $459.6 million.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Our tower cash flow margins remain very strong, with a second quarter domestic tower cash flow margin of 84.9% and an international tower cash flow margin of 67.2%, or 90.3% excluding the impact of pass-through reimbursable expenses. International tower margins were impacted on a year-over-year basis by our new, less mature Tanzania assets. Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $437.8 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 68.2% in the quarter. Excluding the impact of revenues from pass-through expenses, adjusted EBITDA margin was 73.3%. Approximately 96% of our total adjusted EBITDA was attributable to our tower leasing business in the second quarter.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

During the second quarter, our services business produced record results for the fifth quarter in a row, with $71.8 million in revenue and $17.3 million of segment operating profit. We also continued to replenish and build even higher our services backlogs, finishing the quarter once again at a higher level than the prior quarter, notwithstanding our record second quarter results. Based on this backlog, our strong second quarter and the continuing high activity levels by our customers, we have raised our outlook for full-year site development revenue by $40 million. Adjusted funds from operations or AFFO in the second quarter was $335.3 million. AFFO per share was $3.07, an increase of 16.3% over the second quarter of 2021.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

During the second quarter, we continued to expand our portfolio, acquiring 210 communication sites and one data center in Brazil, which we previously disclosed with our first quarter results for total cash consideration of $127.3 million. We also built 100 new sites in the quarter. Subsequent to quarter end, we have purchased or are under agreement to purchase approximately 200 sites in our existing markets for an aggregate price of $85 million. We anticipate closing on these sites under contract by the end of the year. In addition, during the quarter, we entered into a contract with Grupo TorreSur or GTS to purchase their remaining approximately 2,600 tower sites in Brazil for $725 million.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

We anticipate closing on this acquisition during the fourth quarter of this year and expect these assets to produce approximately $68 million of tower cash flow during the first full year following closing, based on our current estimates of future exchange rates. These are assets we know well in a market we obviously know well, and this acquisition will be immediately accretive to AFFO per share upon closing. Jeff will share a little more about this acquisition in a moment. In addition to new tower and other assets, we also continue to invest in the land under our sites. During the quarter, we spent an aggregate of $9.9 million to buy land and easements and to extend ground lease terms. At the end of the quarter, we owned or controlled for more than 20 years the land underneath approximately 72% of our towers.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

The average remaining life under our ground leases, including renewal options under our control, is approximately 36 years. Looking ahead now to the rest of the year, this afternoon's earnings press release includes our updated outlook for full-year 2022. We have increased our outlook across all of our key metrics based on a combination of outperformance in the second quarter, strengthening activity levels in both services and leasing, lower churn expectations, and anticipated contributions from the pending GTS acquisition. These items were partially offset by weaker foreign exchange rates and higher interest costs from the outlook previously provided with our prior quarter earnings release. We are excited about the current operating environment and pleased with how our team has been able to execute in order to produce better than expected results and support our customers at a high level with all of their network initiatives.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

With that, I will now turn things over to Mark DeRussy, who will provide an update on our liquidity position and balance sheet.

Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA

Thanks, Brendan. We ended the quarter with $12.6 billion of total debt and $12.3 billion of net debt. Our net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA leverage ratio was 7.0x, which is at the low end of our target range. Our second quarter net cash interest coverage ratio of adjusted EBITDA to net cash interest expense was 5.3x, equaling last quarter, the highest in the company's history. As of the end of the quarter, the weighted average interest rate of our outstanding debt was 2.9%, with a weighted average maturity of approximately 4.3 years. The interest rate on 93% of our outstanding debt is fixed. As of today, we have $480 million outstanding under our $1.5 billion revolver.

Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA

During the second quarter, we did not repurchase any shares of our common stock as we chose instead to pursue the Brazil acquisition. We currently have $504.7 million of repurchase authorization remaining under our $1 billion stock repurchase plan. The company shares outstanding at June 30, 2022 were 107.9 million, compared to 109.5 million at June 30th, 2021, which is a reduction of 1.5%. In addition, during the second quarter, we declared and paid a cash dividend of $76.6 million, or $0.71 per share. Today we announced that our board of directors declared a third quarter dividend of $0.71 per share, an increase of 22.4% over the third quarter of last year.

Mark DeRussy
VP of Finance at SBA

The dividend will be payable on September 20th, 2022 to shareholders of record as of the close of business on August 25th, 2022. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Jeff.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Thanks, Mark, and good evening, everyone. As you have heard, we had another great performance in the second quarter. All areas of our operations were very busy and executed at a very high level, producing better than expected financial results and setting us up well for the second half of the year. Despite higher interest rates and weaker FX rates, we have meaningfully increased our full year outlook in all areas, including a $64 million increase in anticipated total revenue. Our strong results and increased outlook are driven by the current network investment initiatives around the globe. While there is a range in the degree of activity from each of our customers around the globe, collectively they are producing very high levels of demand, which we expect will keep us very busy for the remainder of this year and well into 2023.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

As of this moment, we are not seeing any material adverse impact on our activity levels from supply chain, labor, or COVID-19 issues. In the U.S., each of our carrier customers remained busy during the quarter, signing up new leases and amendments primarily associated with the build-out of their networks through the deployment of new spectrum. T-Mobile was very active during the quarter and continued their nationwide deployment of 2.5 GHz and 600 MHz spectrum. Verizon and AT&T each increased their 5G-related signings with us from the first quarter, with each focused on C-band deployments and AT&T beginning to incorporate 3.45 GHz spectrum into their deployments as well. Dish also contributed to the quarter, continuing to sign up new lease agreements in support of their nationwide 5G network build-out. We are excited about the upcoming 2.5 GHz auction, which will result in even more spectrum being deployed.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Internationally, we also had one of our best organic leasing quarters in a while, coupled with increased CPI-based escalators in a number of our markets. International leasing activity was again led by strong new lease and amendment activity in Brazil, but we also saw significant executions in a number of our other markets, including South Africa and El Salvador. During the second quarter, we signed up 51% of new international revenue through new leases and 49% through amendments to existing leases, so almost evenly balanced. The combined U.S. and international leasing revenue signed up during the second quarter were the best we have produced in about seven years. On top of these outstanding leasing results, our services business had its best quarter in company history, producing record services revenue and margin results for the fifth quarter in a row.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Our services backlog finished the quarter at its highest level ever, increasing our confidence in U.S. carrier activity for the balance of the year and allowing us to increase our services outlook by 33% over the initial guidance we provided in February. I am extremely pleased with the job our team has done to deliver outstanding support to our customers during this critical time. In addition to our strong operational performance during the second quarter, we maintained our disciplined and opportunistic approach to capital allocation. This quarter, we pursued a very attractive portfolio growth opportunity, evidenced by our agreement to buy the remaining 2,600 towers owned by GTS in Brazil. GTS is one of the longest-tenured independent tower companies in Brazil, run by industry veterans we have known and respected for many years, individuals who know how to properly run a tower company.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

The majority of these sites are located in São Paulo State, and most are located in urban or suburban areas. The sites have 2.1 tenants per tower, and we believe there are opportunities for growth, particularly with recent 5G spectrum auctions in Brazil as the driver. This will be our second acquisition of towers from GTS. We like the current dynamic in Brazil quite a bit, and we are pleased to incorporate these high-quality assets into our portfolio at a very accretive price. On this portfolio, Oi and legacy Nextel leases represent 17% of the business. While these towers present some variability around future churn outcomes, we believe we are uniquely positioned to maximize the future of these assets.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

This acquisition will increase SBA's total portfolio in Brazil by over 25% to over 12,500 sites, and we expect the towers will be integrated with little to no incremental SG&A expense. We believe this increased size and scale will be an asset in upcoming Oi consolidation discussions and will also position us well to capture more of the necessary incremental network investment that will be required of the remaining three legacy MNOs. Finally, we will be able to absorb this transaction while still maintaining leverage in our target 7.0x-7.5x range. We expect this will be a very complementary, value-enhancing investment in a market that we know very well. With regard to our balance sheet, we remain in good position. We have only one debt instrument representing 5% of our outstanding debt maturing in the next two years.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

93% of our debt is fixed-rate, and our weighted average interest rate remains very low at 2.9%. With respect to that one instrument due March 2023, our plan is to refinance that in the next six months as we watch and stay opportunistic around the credit markets. While incremental interest rates are higher, our access to capital remains very strong, and we continue to be a preferred issuer in the debt markets we have historically used. We are really very well-positioned to weather the challenging broader macro environment. In addition to our strong balance sheet, growing AFFO, and the steady and growing operational environment of our industry, the majority of our largest costs are fixed or increases are capped.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

As a result, we believe we are not only able to withstand the current inflationary environment, but we are able to continue growing our AFFO per share, creating additional value for our shareholders. In closing, we are very pleased with our first half of 2022. Our team performed well against a very strong demand environment. I expect more of the same throughout the rest of the year and into 2023. I want to thank our customers and team members for their support and contributions to our success. I also want to take a brief moment to recognize and thank both Kurt Bagwell, our President of International, and Tom Hunt, our General Counsel, for their decades of service to SBA. Both will be retiring at the end of this year, but each has left an indelible mark on SBA and the industry.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

I appreciate their sacrifices and contributions and wish them all the best in retirement. With that, Moses, we are now ready for questions.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press one and zero on your telephone keypad. You may withdraw your question at any time by repeating the one-zero command. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up the handset before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, you may press one zero at this time. First we go to the line of Michael Rollins with Citi. Please go ahead.

Michael Rollins
Michael Rollins
Communications Services and Infrastructure Analyst at Citi

Thanks, and good afternoon. First, curious if you could give us an update on the domestic leasing environment, and in particular, are you seeing any change in activity from AT&T after it announced some of the progress it's made on mid-band spectrum deployments and, you know, also what you're seeing out of Dish's build. Just secondly, with regards to the acquisition, can you talk a little bit more about, you know, how the valuation might be contemplating that 17% of leasing that, you know, could be subject to some future rationalization? Thanks.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Well, clearly. I'll take the last one first, Mike. Clearly, you know, 10.5x is a extremely attractive price that takes into account exactly that. I mean, we don't really believe any of the Nextel revenue will stay on, and we have heavily discounted the Oi revenue as well in our underwriting. Yes, all that was taken into account when we arrived at the price. In terms of AT&T, you know, I listened to their call and heard their comments, and based on our observations in our markets, which, you know, are mostly suburban, highway corridor, and rural, I think the numbers that they were talking about mostly came from dense urban markets, which makes a lot of sense because that's how all new gener

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

That's where all new generational upgrades start. We still have, in our opinion, a very, very long way to go with AT&T and their C-band and 3.45 GHz work. You know, Dish is a very active contributor. They would represent most all of the new leases that we are signing domestically. There will be some ebbs and flows. They have already worked around their 2022 regulatory requirements and are now gonna be working towards their 2023 regulatory requirements, but still a very, very active participant.

Michael Rollins
Michael Rollins
Communications Services and Infrastructure Analyst at Citi

Thanks.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Next, we'll go to line of Batya Levi with UBS. Please go ahead.

Batya Levi
Batya Levi
Managing Director and Communications, Media, and Infrastructure Analyst at UBS

With the leasing activity ramping up towards the end of the year, do you think that bodes well for the activity we should expect for 2023? I know you're gonna provide formal guidance later, but in terms of trajectory, some comments would be helpful to think about puts and takes into next year. Another question on churn. It has been coming lower than you had expected. Is that pushed out to next year, or are you seeing lower decommissioning than you had prior expectations? Thank you.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah, I think, Batya, the most we could say about the trajectory is that the fourth quarter of this year, we believe, will be the highest growth rate of the year, and we'll let you extrapolate what that means going forward, and obviously, we'll give a full review when we give our 2023 guidance. Brendan, I'm gonna let you take the churn question.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah. The churn is, it is mostly, you should think of it as rolling into next year or future year. It's largely timing related as opposed to, below our expectations. It's just, the timing primarily around the Sprint/T-Mobile decommissioning is a little bit more deferred than the estimates that we had made, but we don't expect the total to really be any different.

Batya Levi
Batya Levi
Managing Director and Communications, Media, and Infrastructure Analyst at UBS

Great. Maybe just to follow up on that, Brendan, I think you had originally said maybe $30 million in 2022. Should we assume that it's closer to $27 million now? Then if you could give us guidance for 2023, that'd be great.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah. It was. Well, last quarter, we actually brought it down about $3 million, and we brought it down about another $3 million this quarter. This year is probably closer to $24 million. That's what's assumed in our numbers, right now, for 2022. And next year, we're probably somewhere in the $15 million-$25 million range. It's a fairly wide range, but obviously, there are some uncertainties around exact timing, but somewhere in that $20 million level.

Batya Levi
Batya Levi
Managing Director and Communications, Media, and Infrastructure Analyst at UBS

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Next we'll go to the line of Ric Prentiss with Raymond James. Please go ahead.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director of Communications Services at Raymond James

Thanks. Hey, guys. Good afternoon.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Ric.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director of Communications Services at Raymond James

Hey. Wanna follow up on some of Michael's questions. Why was now the right time, or was it just the right price as far as doing the GTS deal? Help us understand maybe as we think about total exposure to Oi and timing for Oi to affect your international operations. I've got a follow-up.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah. I mean, it was the right time because the opportunity presented itself at a time and on terms where we thought it was very attractive for our future value creation. I mean, what's going on in Brazil right now is, you know, they've got a fairly hawkish central bank. I think they're a little bit ahead of the U.S. in terms of their economy having, you know, been dancing around a recession. The demand, notwithstanding that, for cellular and 5G continues to mushroom in Brazil. You have, you know, this rationalization going on with the Oi transaction for three carriers who now, you know, have bought a lot of new spectrum that needs to be deployed and are in a better market share position to do all that.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

We like the dynamic a lot, Ric, and we know these assets well, and we know the sellers well, and all things kinda came together in the right way.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director of Communications Services at Raymond James

Okay. Oi churn?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah, Ric, I mean, we've been kind of ballparking it on our portfolio at about $20 million-$30 million over the next, you know, many years. This portfolio actually reduces our exposure to Oi on a percentage basis in Brazil, but would probably add somewhere in the $3 million of incremental Oi churn, would be our current estimate.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director of Communications Services at Raymond James

Okay. You all know me, I really harp on this whole amortization of prepaid rent. I don't like it. I know you have to account for it. It's just, it's not cash. Yours has been very tiny, I think about $25 million. Crown did acknowledge and provide a table this earnings season on where their level was at, $560 million, dropping to maybe $450 million, maybe going even lower. American Tower talked about theirs, had been maybe $140 million, dropping to $110 million. Should we think of your kind of $25 million a year as a good number? 'Cause again, we really think cash AFFO and funds available for distribution is the right way to do valuations.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah, I mean, that's obviously. It's been trending down. Part of the reason it's trending down, Ric, is because as we've done amendments and had longer terms to some of our tenant leases, you amortize it over a longer period of time, so it's actually had a reducing effect. It really is just a function of how much augmentation work we do that we get reimbursed for and which leases that relates to, how much time they have. I think based on the way that it's trended, that number that you just mentioned of $25 million or so is probably a reasonable estimate. It's been higher in the past, and it's been lower, so you know, we'll see how it goes, but I think that's a reasonable estimate.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah. I mean, we're always gonna disclose it very specifically, Ric, but I mean, it's not necessarily a bad thing, you know? I mean, this is.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director of Communications Services at Raymond James

I love getting paid, right?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

I mean, yeah, understand it for what it is. It's not something we, you know, we look to discourage. I mean, you can depend on us that it's always gonna be clearly marked out.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director of Communications Services at Raymond James

I mean, it's a great return on capital. I just like to think of it as net capital return on yield kind of thing as opposed to an AFFO number. I just don't like it in AFFO.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah. No, I hear you.

Ric Prentiss
Ric Prentiss
Managing Director of Communications Services at Raymond James

All right, cool. Everybody stay well.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Thanks. You too.

Operator

Next, we'll go to the line of Simon Flannery with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Simon Flannery
Simon Flannery
Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you. Good evening. On the M&A market, obviously the transaction multiple, you said it's accretive. It's certainly lower than we've seen elsewhere. Do you think this was a particular situation, given the Oi exposure, given the Brazil market, or do you sense a turn that maybe it's gonna be easier to be a buyer in the private markets than it has been for the last couple of years? Anything changing there, either in towers or for ground leases, et cetera. On the leverage, you came down to 7.0x. Obviously, rates have been rising. You've got a great liquidity profile.

Simon Flannery
Simon Flannery
Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Any updates, do you wanna stay more towards the lower end, or are you still happy right within that 7.0x-7.5x going forward in this rate environment?

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah. I think as long as we can continue to produce the organic growth, Simon, we're fine in the 7.0x-7.5x. You know, if we don't find good things to buy, it'll obviously be trending lower. In terms of your first question, you know, I think there are some brakes on the margins that are happening around the world in terms of seller and buyer expectations coming more together. In this particular case, this was more a situation of these particular assets, our familiarity with them, the fact that it was the last tranche of towers that the seller had and needed to sell them to basically liquidate some funds and do some things that, you know, private equity needs to do.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

I would attribute it more to this deal than I would a wholesale change in the buying environment. Although, I do think that is improving.

Simon Flannery
Simon Flannery
Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley

What sort of clarity can you give us on the, or what have you assumed on the timing of the Nextel and Oi churn for these assets?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

It's over the next several years. I mean, some of it is specific to the time frames that of the terms of those agreements, Simon. They're all spread out to different dates. You should assume over the next three years, roughly. On average, but it won't be even. It'll be, you know, a certain amount each year.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

That $68 million includes presumably some churn in the next 12 months after closing.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

A little bit, yes.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Next, we'll go to the line of Nick Del Deo with MoffettNathanson. Please go ahead.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Yeah. Hey, thanks for taking my questions. Yeah, first, two quick clarifications first, you know, for Brendan. Brendan, you said that you expect about $3 million Oi churn from the GTS towers. Can you share what your expectation is for the Nextel churn?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah, I don't wanna give the exact number. But, you know, the Oi, well, as Jeff said, we're assuming that all of the Nextel revenue goes away. The total for Oi and Nextel is about 17%. Nextel is roughly half of that, so you can probably do the math from there.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Okay. Okay, that's great. Thanks. Then, your expectation for other revenue in the U.S. in 2022 went from $0 last quarter to $5 million this quarter. What's that a function of, and was that realized this quarter?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yes, it was realized this quarter. It's basically—there's a few different things in there, but it's essentially what we consider cash-basis revenue, which is stuff that we're collecting kinda one-off. Sometimes there's extra fees that are paid or holdover fees, things that are not part of the recurring, ongoing lease, so we classify it as other. But the increase is really that we got more of that than we expected. Almost all of that is stuff that we realized in the second quarter. There may be a small amount of projected for the second half of the year, but most of it was actually realized.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Okay. Okay, great.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Stuff that doesn't go in the $66 million bucket.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Right. Yeah. Okay.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Because, you know, we wanna be careful as to how folks think about that year after year after year.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Okay. Got it. Great. That's terrific. You know, one more substantive question. Any change in behavior from, you know, call it non-traditional customers, you know, like cable, that might be worth calling out that would suggest, you know, either they're more likely or less likely to be, you know, a meaningful customer in coming years?

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

No real change, Nick. No real change that comes to mind.

Nick Del Deo
Nick Del Deo
Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson

Okay, great. Well, thank you, guys.

Operator

Next we'll go to line of Philip Cusick with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Philip Cusick
Philip Cusick
Managing Director at JPMorgan

Hey, guys. Thanks. Just to go back to the U.S. for a second. Can you tell us, is there sort of flat and running steady from here, or is there sort of an acceleration happening in that one? Just trying to get an idea of what's driving the back half strength and the durability there. Jeff, it was interesting you mentioned, you know, continuing strength in 2023 and maybe 2024. Anything you can add to us there. Second, what's driving the service revenue growth, and anything you can sort of help us on there, if it's shifting at the margin? Thanks very much.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Well, I mean, the services revenue is pretty straightforward. It's just more activity. You know, more stuff going on. Our services business is almost entirely gleaned from our own towers. It's just a lot of activity, Phil. In terms of, you know, the remember, we report those growth rates on a trailing 12-month basis. A lot of what you're going to see in our financial reports for the second or the third and the fourth quarter, we already know. It's already kind of in on the books. That part of it, there's much less risk, so to speak, than those. As we move through the year as a calendar year company, you know, the risk drops. Here we are in August.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

You know, our year isn't entirely baked yet, but it's pretty close.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah. To your question on Dish being a part of it, I mean, they're certainly a part of it because they've been a big part of our leasing activity success over the last, really last year. The timing of when those leases commence is a driver, and it's certainly a contributing factor to the increasing growth that we expect in Q3 and Q4.

Philip Cusick
Philip Cusick
Managing Director at JPMorgan

Yeah. Jeff, you sort of cautioned us from taking that fourth quarter exit run rate from this year and extrapolating that onto next year each quarter. Do you think that that's starting to look more reasonable as you get closer to 2023?

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

I think I'd like to save all that till my 2023 guidance, Phil.

Philip Cusick
Philip Cusick
Managing Director at JPMorgan

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Next we'll go to the line of Matt Niknam with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Matt Niknam
Matt Niknam
US Head of Research at Deutsche Bank

Thanks for taking the question. I have one follow-up and one other question. The follow-up is just on the last question on services. Any color you can share just in terms of the breadth of carrier contributions across the Big Four in terms of what's driving the upside on services? Then just secondly, in terms of the edge strategy, any thoughts, updates in terms of how you're thinking about it and any difference in terms of how you're thinking about the opportunity domestically, relative to any potential use cases internationally? Thanks.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Well, internationally, you know, recall, and we talked about this last quarter, the data center we bought in Brazil, we are having more advanced discussions there around C-RAN and other carrier deployments that, you know, will tie into, you know, owning a data center and data center expertise. So that's encouraging. But in terms of the edge itself, I mean, we're adding a couple, three, four, five, maybe as many as 10 new mini-facilities a quarter. But it's still, we're not yet prepared to say the edge is here, and it's at the tower site. It's all going in the right direction, but it still needs more time, and it, you know, certainly is still a ways off from being material.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Now, in terms of the services, contributions, I believe, in our 10-Q, we disclose who our top services customers are. I will, you know, accelerate that for you, Matt, and it is, T-Mobile, Verizon, and Dish are gonna be the top three. Right, Brendan?

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

For this quarter.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

I mean, T-Mobile is certainly the number one.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah.

Matt Niknam
Matt Niknam
US Head of Research at Deutsche Bank

Great. All right. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yep.

Operator

Next we'll go to the line of Eric Luebchow with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Eric Luebchow
Eric Luebchow
Senior Communications Infrastructure and Self Storage REIT Analyst at Wells Fargo

Great. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to check real quick, you mentioned the 2.5 GHz auction that's going on right now. Generally, most people think T-Mobile will be the only meaningful bidder there. Just wondering if you have any thoughts and kinda service overlap with some of the licenses that are up for auction and whether you think that can maybe be a meaningful contributor for you know, looking out the next year or two.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Well, I mean, a number of folks in addition to T-Mobile registered. I would agree with you only based on what I read. You know, most folks expect T-Mobile to be the big winner. You know, any kind of spectrum for us is new spectrum gonna prove valuable in one degree or another. Now, if it's folks who don't have existing 2.5 GHz spectrum to deploy, that's gonna generally mean new radios and antennas. That can be a little more impactful than not. Just having more spectrum and greater densification that will permit is a good thing. I'm not really gonna speculate as to who else is gonna put in, you know, bids that ultimately win the day.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

We're just happy that there's another auction of very valuable mid-band spectrum that we know ultimately gets deployed.

Eric Luebchow
Eric Luebchow
Senior Communications Infrastructure and Self Storage REIT Analyst at Wells Fargo

Fair enough. Just related to T-Mobile, seems like they've been running at a pretty fast pace. Based on what they've said, it sounds like they'll be mostly done with their 2.5 GHz and 600 MHz overlays at some point, maybe by mid-next year. Wondering if you see any sign that they could moderate activity, or do you think maybe there's still some opportunity, especially with the C-band licenses and the 3.45 GHz that they've yet to deploy?

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah, I think there'll be opportunities. I think when all of our customers talk about, you know, when this spectrum gets deployed, they're generally talking about coverage. That's just really, I mean, the end of coverage is the beginning of densification and all the infill and other things that will ultimately be driven by consumer uptake of 5G apps and products. When we think about, you know, these periods of additional investment, they have always in our history gone well beyond the dates that folks talk about, you know, achieving their pops, their desired pops coverage. Because then it gets to densification, which is much different.

Eric Luebchow
Eric Luebchow
Senior Communications Infrastructure and Self Storage REIT Analyst at Wells Fargo

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Next we'll go to line of David Guarino with Green Street. Please go ahead.

David Guarino
David Guarino
Managing Director at Green Street

Thanks. Just a quick one for me on the financing markets. Did you guys mention how you're planning on funding the GTS transaction? Maybe for Brendan, if you could just comment on the relative attractiveness of the secured versus the unsecured markets today.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

Yeah. On GTS, as of right now, you know, we plan to be opportunistic in the financing markets, debt financing. We haven't been specific about that. We do have the capacity on our revolver and with the cash that we're generating from operations to handle it if necessary. We do intend to be opportunistic. We do have a maturity. Our next debt maturity actually comes up in March of next year, and so that will be refinanced at some point between now and then. There's capacity within our ABS structure to actually raise more money, so that might be a contributor, so we'll see how that goes. In the general sense of secured versus unsecured, you know, I don't think there's. They're obviously all up right now in terms of pricing.

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

For us, there's still availability in any of the markets that we typically use. It's not a question of access, it's really just a question of pricing. We intend to be, you know, take our time and be opportunistic. As was mentioned in the script, you know, we have, other than this one maturity that I mentioned, which represents about 5% of our outstanding debt, we don't have any maturities for over two years. We have the flexibility to be a little bit patient with that. You know, I think you should expect we'll continue to use the secured markets, as we have in the past. A mix of both will likely be the path for us.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah. While we may be opportunistic, David, and raise the money, you know, from somewhere else, for purposes of our outlook, it assumes cash on hand and a revolver draw.

David Guarino
David Guarino
Managing Director at Green Street

Makes sense. Thanks for that, guys.

Operator

Next, we'll go to line of Greg Williams with Cowen. Please go ahead.

Greg Williams
Greg Williams
Cable, Satellite, and Telecom Services Analyst at Cowen

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. First one's just on the mix of colo versus amendments. I think you noted you're at elevated levels, like 1/3 of the U.S. is new colo and 2/3 amendments, and I think international is a 51/49 split. Curious to hear your thoughts on where that could go from here. We had sort of peak-ish levels. Jeff, you mentioned we're gonna go from coverage to densification. That would imagine that you'd see more amendments that way. Curious to hear your thoughts there. Second question is on the service margin. If you're seeing this, you know, five quarters in a row record and you're going to more of a construction phase, would that mean the service margin could decline a bit as you shift away from, like, planning and designing towards construction?

Greg Williams
Greg Williams
Cable, Satellite, and Telecom Services Analyst at Cowen

Thanks.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Well, the short answer to your last question is yes. So that, you know, could very, very well happen. And I'm sorry, what-

Brendan Cavanagh
Brendan Cavanagh
CFO at SBA

It was colos versus amendments. The mix in terms of a shift, you know, if you kinda go back, really the colo side of it in the U.S. is heavily driven by Dish. As you have a little less Dish contribution, you see the percentage shifting more towards amendments. I think with that and the mix towards infill, as we talked about, amendments will probably be trending higher as a percentage.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Yeah. I mean, when you think about how this is gonna go, and there'll be exceptions of course to this, but for the most part, the roll-outs by T-Mobile, Verizon, and AT&T are gonna be heavily amendment. For Dish, it's gonna be more colo. Then when we get to the densification part, Greg, you kinda lean towards amendment, but I believe that you will see, you know, I think a higher percentage of brand new leases when we get to the densification stage.

Greg Williams
Greg Williams
Cable, Satellite, and Telecom Services Analyst at Cowen

Got it. Thanks.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Mm-hmm.

Operator

Is there any additional question? Please press one and zero at this time. At this time, there's no one in queue.

Jeff Stoops
President and CEO at SBA

Okay. Well, I wanna thank everyone for joining us. We had a great quarter, and we look forward to our next report. Thank you.

Operator

That concludes our conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using AT&T Conferencing service.

Executives
Analysts
    • Batya Levi
      Managing Director and Communications, Media, and Infrastructure Analyst at UBS
    • David Guarino
      Managing Director at Green Street
    • Eric Luebchow
      Senior Communications Infrastructure and Self Storage REIT Analyst at Wells Fargo
    • Greg Williams
      Cable, Satellite, and Telecom Services Analyst at Cowen
    • Jeff Stoops
      President and CEO at SBA
    • Mark DeRussy
      VP of Finance at SBA
    • Matt Niknam
      US Head of Research at Deutsche Bank
    • Michael Rollins
      Communications Services and Infrastructure Analyst at Citi
    • Nick Del Deo
      Senior Research Analyst at MoffettNathanson
    • Philip Cusick
      Managing Director at JPMorgan
    • Ric Prentiss
      Managing Director of Communications Services at Raymond James
    • Simon Flannery
      Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley
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