Gibson Energy Q3 2024 Earnings Report

Gibson Energy EPS Results

• Actual EPS: C$0.33
• Consensus EPS: C$0.32
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +C$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: C$0.21

Gibson Energy Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: N/A
• Expected Revenue: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Gibson Energy Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2024
• Date: 10/29/2024
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, October 30, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 9:00AM ET

Gibson is a leading liquids Infrastructure company with its principal businesses consisting of the storage, optimization, processing, and gathering of liquids and refined products, as well as waterborne vessel loading. Headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, the Company's operations are located across North America, with core terminal assets in Hardisty and Edmonton, Alberta, Ingleside and Wink, Texas, and a facility in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan. Gibson shares trade under the symbol GEI and are listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Gibson Energy Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Gibson reported Adjusted EBITDA of $151 million in Q3, driven by near-record Infrastructure segment results of $150 million.
• Construction of two new tanks at the Edmonton terminal remains on schedule for year-end service, adding 870 000 barrels of storage and enhanced TMX connectivity.
• Work began on the Cactus II connection at Gateway, expected in service Q3 2025, providing customers access to roughly 700 000 bpd of incremental Permian supply under a long-term contract.
• Marketing segment Adjusted EBITDA fell to about $14 million due to weaker refined products and fewer trading opportunities, with modest performance anticipated in Q4 and full-year guidance near the low end of $80 million–$120 million.
• The company maintained financial discipline with 3.2× leverage within its 3.0–3.5× target range, a 65% payout ratio below its 70%–80% target, and does not plan share buybacks in Q4 absent business outperformance.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Gibson Energy Third Quarter 2024 conference call. Please be advised that this call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Beth Pollock, Vice President, Capital Markets and Risk. Ms. Pollock, please go ahead.

[Maurice Choy, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Thank you, Therese. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss our third quarter 2024 operational and financial results. Joining me on the call this morning from Gibson Energy are Curtis Philippon, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Sean Brown, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We also have additional senior management team members in the room to help with questions and answers as required. Listeners are reminded that today's call refers to non-GAAP measures, forward-looking information, and is subject to certain assumptions and adjustments, and may not be indicative of actual results. Descriptions and qualifications of such measures and information are set out in our investor presentation available on our website and our continuous disclosure documents available on SEDAR+. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Curtis.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

Thank you, Beth. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'm pleased to be here today for my first quarterly call with Gibson Energy. Before we get into our third quarter results, I'd like to take a moment to introduce myself. Prior to joining Gibson, I've been in the North American energy sector for over 20 years, the most recent decade of which was spent as the President and CEO of a low-carbon energy distribution business. During my time there, we were successful in developing solutions to bridge gaps in infrastructure and, in doing so, profitably grew the business in both Canada and the U.S. and generated substantial shareholder value. We're looking forward to doing the same at Gibson. Since joining the company, I've had the opportunity to visit our operations in Edmonton, Hardisty, Moose Jaw, Wink, and Ingleside.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

What struck me is the quality and experience of our team, who take pride in operating our assets safely and efficiently, as well as our strong customer relationships. It is impressive seeing Gibson's critical energy infrastructure firsthand. Our operations span from touching one in four barrels produced in Western Canada to exporting Permian and Eagle Ford barrels through the second-largest crude export terminal in the U.S. These irreplaceable assets provide a tremendous platform for growth. Our focus is on strengthening our high-performance team culture and running our business well. Over the next year, our strategic priorities are delivering on the potential at Gateway and realizing the growth opportunities that surround our asset base. Now, turning to our third quarter results, I'm pleased to report that we've had another strong quarter with an adjusted EBITDA of CAD 151 million, driven by near-record contribution from our infrastructure segment of CAD 150 million.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

From a commercial perspective, construction of the two new tanks at our Edmonton terminal has progressed according to schedule, and we expect to place them into service by the end of the year. These tanks will add value for Cenovus by providing 870,000 barrels of storage capacity and a high degree of connectivity, including into TMX. During the quarter, we also started work on the Cactus II connection at our Gateway Terminal, which will provide our customers with access to approximately 700,000 barrels a day of incremental Permian supply. We expect the connection to be in service in Q3 2025. As mentioned on our last call, we announced the Cactus II connection, along with the extension of a long-term contract at our Gateway Terminal on July 15th, which is backed by a high-quality, investment-grade counterparty.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

With respect to Gateway operations, we continue to see growing demand for our services at the terminal, and contracting discussions with customers are moving forward. Our confidence in extending a second contract is unchanged, and we still expect to continue achieving our previously communicated commercial objectives regarding tenure and rate. So, in summary, my first quarter at Gibson has been a pleasure. The team has delivered a solid quarter, and I'm excited about the potential going forward. I'll now pass the call over to Sean, who will walk through our financial results in more detail.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Thanks, Curtis. To focus on our financial results, we delivered another solid quarter with Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 151 million, slightly higher than the third quarter of 2023 due to an additional month of Gateway EBITDA contribution, partially offset by lower marketing earnings. In our infrastructure segment, we reported CAD 150 million of Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter, CAD 10 million higher than the third quarter of last year due to a full quarter of contribution from Gateway, as well as continued strong performance from the rest of our infrastructure assets. This is relatively in line with Q2 2024, where we reported record infrastructure segment EBITDA.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Turning to the marketing segment, Adjusted EBITDA of approximately CAD 14 million was below the guidance provided on our Q2 call and represented a CAD 10 million decrease relative to Q3 2023 and a CAD 6 million decrease relative to the second quarter of this year.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

While crude marketing results were in line or slightly ahead of expectations entering the quarter, refined products' results were softer than expected due primarily to weakness in the drilling fluid market. Variance to the comparable period last year was also largely driven by refined products, with notably weaker demand for light sour product at Moose Jaw, though we did also see fewer crude trading opportunities. With respect to our forward outlook, based on market conditions, we anticipate modest marketing segment performance in the fourth quarter. The crude marketing segment is expected to be impacted by low Western Canadian storage levels, which will likely moderate any time-based opportunities and contribute to lower volatility. The refined product segment is also expected to perform modestly due to soft drilling fluid demand combined with tight, heavy differentials. We're also heading into the winter asphalt season, where the focus is typically on building storage inventories.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

On an annual basis, under this outlook, marketing is expected to end the year at or below our run rate guidance of $80-$120 million, though I would note we are prepared to take advantage of incremental opportunities should they arise. That being said, with the benefit of our Gateway acquisition, marketing now represents a smaller proportion of our business at 10%-15% on a trailing 12-month basis. We have also operated at these levels on many occasions historically and are well-positioned from a balance sheet perspective, given our continued commitment to our key governing financial principles as we move forward. To complete the discussion of results for this quarter, I'll briefly walk through a couple of items impacting distributable cash flow.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

The Q3 2024 distributable cash flow result of approximately CAD 88 million was a CAD 5 million decrease from the third quarter of 2023 and a CAD 13 million decrease relative to the second quarter of this year. The year-over-year delta was driven by current income tax returning to normalized levels after benefiting from one-time tax deductions related to the Gateway acquisition in the third quarter of last year. The quarter-over-quarter delta was driven by lower marketing results, higher replacement capital expenditures, and current income tax. We also maintained our commitment to our financial governing principles with leverage of 3.2 times, within our target range of 3-3.5 times. I would note that given the current market structure, marketing inventories are below what we typically hold, so our current revolver balance is somewhat artificially low, resulting in a lower leverage metric.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Our payout ratio of 65% remains below our 70%-80% target range, highlighting the sustainability of our dividend. On an infrastructure-only basis, our payout ratio is approximately 71%, well below our target of 100%, and leverage of 3.4 times is also below our target of 4 times. With ample headroom with respect to both ratios, we have significant financial flexibility, notwithstanding any softness in our marketing business. In terms of capital allocation, we continue to be committed to be disciplined and focused on maximizing shareholder value. Given our current outlook for full-year capital expenditures, marketing performance, and our unwavering commitment to our key governing financial principles, we do not foresee buybacks during the fourth quarter in the absence of business outperformance.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

However, share repurchases remain a critical part of our capital allocation strategy, and we will provide an update on our outlook when we announce our 2025 capital guidance in early December. Overall, we have a strong and conservative financial profile. Our leverage is low, both on a total and infrastructure-adjusted basis. Our quality of cash flows continues to increase with the relative growth in our infrastructure business, and we have significant liquidity and a staggered debt maturity profile. As we move forward, this financial profile will continue to offer us considerable financial flexibility. In summary, Gibson delivered solid results in the third quarter of the year, with infrastructure results remaining stable and financial metrics within or better than our target ranges. I will now turn the call over to the operator to open it up for questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. To ask a question, you will need to press Star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press Star 11 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question today comes from Jeremy Tonet with J.P. Morgan Securities. Your line is open.

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone. This is Eli Jossen on for Jeremy. Just wanted to start on the marketing performance the team touched on in the opening remarks so recognize there's been some headwinds driving performance to the lower end of the guide, but can you maybe speak to the longer-term expectations for this segment? Are there positive tailwinds in the future, or should we think about these levels on more of a run rate basis?

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

Good morning, Eli. When I look at the marketing business, you have to recognize that the marketing business will have some lumpiness to it, but if you look over the long term, we're still comfortable with our long-term guidance of the 80-120 is a reasonable way to look at it. The marketing business is going to continue to be a good part of the Gibson portfolio. When you look forward, you've got these great assets that allow you to generate strong marketing business and, in times of volatility, generate even more lumpy positive earnings.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

Sure. Thanks. And then maybe just on Gateway, I know the recontracting announcement didn't come this quarter, and recognize that those discussions are ongoing. But maybe just thinking about the organic growth outlook for the asset itself, can you remind us kind of what the expectations are for upside opportunities at the asset and how you guys are progressing against those?

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

So I believe our guidance in the past has been an upside opportunity of 15%-20% upside as we think about both capital and non-capital improvements on that, and I would say I'm in the seat now, sort of 60 days in the seat, and I'm quite pleasantly surprised to see that those are underway and very actionable, and we're feeling good about that 15%-20% uptick available to the business.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

Great. Thanks. I'll leave it there.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Hope with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

[Robert Hope, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I'm Curtis. So you did mention you've been in the seat now for roughly around 60 days. What do you think the most impactful changes that you've made over the first 60 days have been in the organization? And then as you look out for the next 60 days, what are the key changes you want to see there as well?

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

Sure. Good morning, Rob. No, for the first 60 days, for me in the first 60 days, it's been a lot of getting out and meeting our teams and spending time out in our assets, seeing the assets and getting to know the business in a deeper way. And so I would say early on, it's a lot of getting to know the business and the people involved with it. First step for me coming into the organization is really looking hard at the people and making sure that we've got the right people on the bus going in the right direction. And so one of the first things that we did here over the near term, actually started even before I joined, is a bit of a pullback to the office.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

And so we actually said, "Hey, we need people back in the office in a bigger way," and that was something that was started before I came. But you can see the impact of that, I think, over the last 60 days, that you've got a greater presence of people back in the office working on a more regular basis in the office versus a remote. And it's a small thing, but I believe it drives a culture shift that our operations are out in the field every single day. Sort of our Calgary and Houston offices also coming back in the office and being there in a bigger way has a cultural impact as well, and I think increases our effectiveness. So that's step one.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

As we move into step two, we're looking hard and making sure we've got the right people in the seats in the organization and setting ourselves up for success. That's going quite well. As I go through the operations and look at the opportunities going forward, we spend a lot of time talking about growth and how do you find interesting growth opportunities around the assets. For me, 60 days coming in, I've been very impressed with both the quality of the assets that we have in the operations and the people we've got in our operations, but also I would say positively impressed with the really interesting growth opportunities that we've got around our current asset base and the opportunities for levers for growth around that.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

And so I think over the next 60 days internally, we'll spend a lot of time just continuing to develop and evaluate those things as we look into next year and what we're going to do from a growth perspective in 2025.

[Robert Hope, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Thanks for that. And then maybe turning over to capital allocation priorities or strategies. Sean, you did mention that on an infra-only basis, the payout ratio as well as the leverage are below your targets. So when you think about pause or not pushing on the buyback into Q4, is that a function of just keeping some powder dry as you're seeing some good growth opportunities into 2025, keeping your powder dry for M&A, or is it really a function of just better understanding what the strategy will be longer term here?

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Thanks, Rob. I think what that really is, I touched upon it in the prepared remarks, but if you looked at it, our leverage of 3.2 times is certainly at the low end of the range and something that you may think would be a predictor of reinitiating buybacks in the fourth quarter. What I did touch upon, though, is that our inventories right now are really quite, quite low, just given the current market structure. If you normalize that to what would be a more normal inventory level for us, the leverage actually goes up sort of to mid-ish or higher end of that range. And just given our absolute laser focus on our key governing financial principles, it's just what we felt appropriate. So the leverage at appearance would seem to be at the low end.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

We'd look at it on a more normalized basis, more at the mid to higher end, if you normalize for those inventory levels. And it's really reflective of that, just an absolute unwavering commitment to those key governing financial principles. But I do want to reiterate that our commitment to our capital allocation priorities does not change. Curtis touched upon it. Focus will and always be on growth opportunities, but to the extent that we have excess cash flow, we still remain committed to the buyback on a longer-term basis.

[Robert Hope, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you for your question. Our next question comes from Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

[Maurice Choy, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Thank you and good morning, everyone. Maybe I could start with you, Curtis. You mentioned in your prepared remarks that you developed solutions to bridge gaps in infrastructure, and you plan to do the same in Gibson Energy and you also hope to rea

[Maurice Choy, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Realize the growth potential surrounding the company's asset base. Could you elaborate more on any gaps you may be seeing today and elaborate on this organic growth potential you speak of at the company?

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah. Good morning, Maurice. Yeah. When I look at our asset base, we have this unbelievable base of assets in Western Canada and down into the U.S. And around those assets, what I've seen 60 days in is some really interesting opportunities to increase throughput through our assets, look for opportunities to increase profitability within the assets, grow with the customer base. And I think increasingly, are there ways to sort of increase that competitive moat around the assets? And so there's a number of things that go beyond just building. There are opportunities with TMX to build more tanks as well. But I think it goes beyond just building more tanks, that there's really interesting ways for us to increase the throughput to our facilities.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

The obvious one that we've talked about in the past is the dredging project that we're going through, the deepening project for our Ingleside facility, where we're spending a lot of time right now going through the engineering of that to be able to increase the throughput capacity of that facility. That's a great example of the type of project that allows us to really increase the throughput, increase the profitability, make it more attractive for a wider base of customers, and there's other ones like that that I find are quite attractive.

[Maurice Choy, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

So as you think about all these gateway opportunities, including the dredging program and tie that back to the second contract extension that you're still negotiating, how does that all work together in terms of timing? Would you consider offering the potential for that with the second customer before signing an extension, or is it all separate?

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

It's definitely part of our conversation in our contract negotiations: what are some of the capabilities of the facility. The deepening is a consideration in that contract extension. That's something that we're working through over the coming months. It's a compelling project for us regardless, Morris. We see a lot of benefit in increasing that capacity. Internally, we're spending a lot of time running full speed to make sure we've got all the engineering ready and planning that we're able to do that deepening work in the front half of next year.

[Maurice Choy, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Understood. And if I could finish off with a question on marketing here. I think, Sean, you mentioned that the 2024 marketing may potentially be at or below the long-term guidance of CAD 80 million-CAD 120 million. Do you anticipate the market conditions to materially change as you head into the new year, or are there things that you're seeing that could improve your outlook?

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah. I think over the course of the year, I mean, there's many things. I mean, there's a lot of different factors that go into marketing. I think right now, as I talked about in the prepared remarks, our crude marketing business actually performed as we expected going into the third quarter. So real credit to the team in that, and what is not a perfect environment necessarily for that business. I mean, on the refined product side, we are going, as I talked about as well in the prepared remarks, we are going into the asphalt build season right now. So I mean, Q4 seasonally would always be a bit weaker for that business. And as we move into next year, we certainly do hope for it to improve.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

And if we look at the totality of the year as well, there's a lot that can happen throughout the year. So we are right now sort of in the midst of budgeting, but I mean, our visibility, as Curtis touched upon earlier, would be sort of in around a similar environment as we move into next year as we look at it today, but resulting in something that would probably be within that 80-120. But again, a lot of things can change throughout the year, but that's the visibility we have right now.

[Maurice Choy, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Understood. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. And our next question does come from Patrick Kenny with NBF. Your line is open.

[Patrick Kenny, Analyst at National Bank Financial]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Just with the record throughput at the Edmonton terminal, could you just provide an update on customer demand or potential timing for sanctioning additional tankage capacity to fully build out the site?

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah. Thanks, Pat. It's Sean here. I'll take that. I mean, obviously, with TMX up and running, that would be so the driver of the record activity that we saw at the facility. I think we would agree with sort of industry in general that TMX seems to have gone very well thus far through operations. As we look at our terminal, we continue to see a very compelling service offering as it relates to new tankage demand there. Have a tank that we put into service Q3 last year. We have another two tanks that we're going to put into service late this year, as Curtis touched upon in his prepared remarks. And again, I'd remind people under a 15-year contract with Cenovus, it's a great partner that we have. So as we look, we have room for at least another two tanks there.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Over the long term, we certainly see the demand for that tankage surfacing. We had said that people wanted to see really TMX in operation before making that decision. Really no change from a timing perspective there. We continue to think that the service offering that we provided Edmonton is very compelling. We think over time, those tanks will get built. And our commercial team is, as they always have been, in active discussions with potential counterparties in and around that.

[Patrick Kenny, Analyst at National Bank Financial]

Got it. Thanks for that. And then maybe for Curtis, I know it's still early days here, but any comments on how you're thinking about the energy transition strategy for the company and if you're focusing more on smaller opportunities across the existing asset base or perhaps considering moving into other verticals outside of crude oil infrastructure such as NGL infrastructure or even natural gas?

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah. As we think about energy transition specifically, we do look at energy transition projects, and that's part of our strategies we're looking forward. But I would say our focus from a growth perspective is a disciplined growth. And regardless of the nature of the project, all projects are competing for capital and have to still fit into the same infrastructure fundamentals that we look for. And so there's no sort of different lens for the energy transition projects. We need to make sure that they still meet all those same compelling returns and infrastructure fundamentals. That's the key thing for us as we look at that. Now, I think as we look forward over the next few years, there will be things for us to do in that that line up really well in our core competencies that do meet those thresholds.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

And we'll keep working at that to eventually add that leg to the business in a bigger way. When I look at growth for Gibson, and we'll talk more about this over time, but when I look at it right now, I see a lot of really interesting growth opportunities right around our current asset base. But we wouldn't be doing our job if we weren't out there also thinking about what is the next platform for growth for Gibson. And just like we did with Gateway, and we added that next platform that offered a lot of other organic growth around that asset. We'll keep looking at those things. An energy transition will be part of that as things we look at for the next platform of growth. But I got to say, we do have a lot of compelling things right around the core asset base as well.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

There's sort of a constant competition for growth. And when I look forward for growth in the next year, what we're pushing the team is to sort of increase that funnel of opportunities coming at us. We really have a strong competition for the best opportunities coming forward. And ideally, I think we've messaged the range of CAD 150 million or so of growth capital. And I'd push to say, how do we get closer to the CAD 200 million level? And what are those real interesting opportunities we can bring forward that both surround our current asset base, but also look longer term at adding that next growth leg?

[Patrick Kenny, Analyst at National Bank Financial]

Okay. That's great. I appreciate the color. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

[Robert Catellier, Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Hey, good morning, everyone. I want to just continue on with the marketing conversation for a minute here. Obviously, we have a little bit of visibility into crack spreads, even if Gibson's unique product slate is a little bit different, but what's changed, I think, is the crude oil marketing opportunities. The last two quarters, it seems like there's been fewer opportunities than you've been accustomed to, and of course, that coincides with the onset of TMX coming into service, so my question for you is, what gives you confidence that you can maintain the existing range, understanding that there's lumpiness, as you suggested, but what gives you confidence that the fundamentals haven't changed over the long term to put that 80-120 in jeopardy?

[Robert Catellier, Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Or said another way, what do you think has to change in the market to give you more visibility to the 80-120 range?

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Thanks, Rob. I mean, we talked about it in the prepared remarks. I mean, really, if we thought about the weakness that we saw this quarter, it was really almost entirely on the refined product side, so I appreciate the commentary, but as I said, I think in an answer to a previous question, I mean, our crude marketing business has done a fantastic job in generating margin even in this environment, so that is partially where we get confidence. It is performing really as we expected entering the year and continues to perform as we expected. We've got visibility into where refined products is. You're absolutely right as you speak to the crack spreads, but as I said, we are right now sort of knee-deep in our budgeting process, and that's a very comprehensive effort that we put in here.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

The results of that are where that budgeting process looks to be coming out is where actually we get some of that confidence in being able to say, we still think that that 80 to 120 is a valid number, notwithstanding some of the structural shifts we've seen in the market.

[Robert Catellier, Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Okay. Thanks for that. And I just wanted to touch on the waste-to-energy opportunity. I read the updates. Obviously, there's really no update yet. You're still working on developing that opportunity. But I wondered if you could give any updates as to your confidence levels or where you think the CapEx might end up for Gibson on that project if it were to, in fact, move forward.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

Hey, Rob. From the waste-to-energy, as we've mentioned in the past, really, we talked about this project because we had some partners involved, and so that one's out in the open a bit more, but the way I think about that project, it's one of several that we're looking at in the background as an interesting potential growth leg. It's that the assessment in the background is going as expected. We're going through both the technical and commercial review of that. For us to get comfortable and actually going forward with that, it would have to demonstrate with a high degree of confidence that we've got a very strong, compelling return, still lines up with all those infrastructure fundamentals, still provides a nice platform for growth to be worth the distraction and time that we'd put in that to go forward.

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

And so I'd say we're going through that review right now, but I wouldn't put that project ahead of some other ones that we're working in the background either. And so I think more updates to come on that. We'll obviously update once we get through the review, but no new update for this quarter.

[Robert Catellier, Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Okay. Thanks for the perspective.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Thanks, Rob.

[Operator]

Our next call comes from Ben Pham with BMO. Your line is open.

[Ben Pham, CFA at BMO]

Hi, thanks. Good morning. Could you comment on the additional projects that you're looking on in the background that's ahead of the waste-to-energy facility?

[Curtis Philippon, CEO at Gibson Energy]

For Ben.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah. Probably for competitive reasons, I probably won't come out and give full disclosure on all those projects. But there's interesting things to do. Even if I was to give a little bit more visibility, one of the interesting options as you look at our Gateway facility is that we are getting a lot of demand from customers for things like increasing ability to handle more Eagle Ford barrels. And what are some of the implications of bringing more Eagle Ford barrels and customers through that facility is something we're seeing a lot of customer interest in. And is there interesting capital projects to do around that is one thing that we're evaluating. But there's a number of things like that that we're thinking about, both on the Canadian assets and the US assets. Okay. Got it.

[Ben Pham, CFA at BMO]

Maybe going back to the share buyback commentaries, you think about through year-end, is there any conditions or what factors would drive perhaps you revisiting a share buyback opportunity?

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

In Q4, you mean, Ben?

[Ben Pham, CFA at BMO]

That's right. I think then beginning of the year, last December, you mentioned maybe share buybacks by year-end. I think we had thought possibly. And now it sounds like it's just tweaked a bit here.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah. No, I think if you recall, our previous messaging had been we're revisiting towards the tail end of the year. Factors that would have influenced share buybacks positively would have been a lower growth capital than guide. And at the time, we had a guide of 125-150. And then the second one would have been marketing outperformance. If you look at take both of those factors, growth capital looks like it's coming in right in around that 150 number. And if anything, marketing has somewhat underperformed based, as you would have seen, given the guide we had going into the quarter and the financial results. So based on those two factors alone, it would point to not having buybacks in the quarter. So what could change it going forward? I mean, the capital is fairly locked in, so I don't see that changing.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

If we saw tremendous volatility in the market and our marketing business was able to take advantage of that, potentially that could be a factor. But what we would also take into consideration is what's our growth capital outlook as we look into next year, and Curtis spoke to it already. Extremely excited to already have sanctioned the Cactus II connection, working very hard on a potential deepening of the dock at Gateway, so we do think we've got a number of exciting growth capital opportunities there, but in direct answer to your question, what could change it? It would be massive outperformance due to market volatility that we see in the fourth quarter, which certainly we're prepared to take advantage of if it happens, but I wouldn't say is our expectation.

[Ben Pham, CFA at BMO]

Okay. Perfect. And maybe just one last one, your inventory comment too. I mean, it looks like there's been some pretty big swings now. I think Q2, you look like you had more leverage than expected, or maybe not expected, more than the normalized and now it's below. Has there been a change in how you're managing working capital or inventory versus the past?

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

No.

[Ben Pham, CFA at BMO]

No, it's just so. Usually that's just Q3 and then Q4 you build up.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah, purely market. Yeah, purely market structure, Ben. Actually, even the Q2 one was somewhat artificially high. It was more timing of actual inventory sales. So what showed up in our revolver was a bit higher than the actuality. But at a high level, we started the year with a tremendous amount of inventory just given the market structure. And we have sold that inventory given current market structure. So no real change from past practice at all. It's just the net result of the structure throughout the year.

[Ben Pham, CFA at BMO]

Okay. Thank you very much.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Thanks, Ben.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Linton with Jefferies. Your line is open.

[Anthony Linton, Analyst at Jefferies]

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my questions. Just a couple of housekeeping items for me, I guess. On the infrastructure side of the business, it just looks like volumes ticked down a little bit quarter over quarter. Just wondering what the key drivers behind that were and how we should think about it moving forward?

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah. Thanks for that, Anthony. It's Sean here. Yeah, nothing really, no read-through there. I mean, if you go through sort of our core infrastructure assets, we talked about Edmonton with TMX, sort of peak volumes there. Our Gateway volumes continue to be extremely strong. So no change there. The variance this quarter was really in around Hardisty. And that is really just a factor of some of the upstream activity at our customer facility. So nothing systematic there. You would see if you looked over the course of any year, depending on the activities of some of our customers, you would see a similar variance. So nothing specific there, really.

[Anthony Linton, Analyst at Jefferies]

Got it. Thank you. That's helpful. And then just another question on the normalized inventory level. And you touched on it in the previous response. But where do you sort of think normalized inventory level shakes out given some of the volatility year to date? And will we see most of that in Q4, or is that going to happen over the course of 2025?

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

Yeah, I'll take that one again. I mean, I think the current view right now is that inventory levels will remain relatively low through Q4. To the extent that the market structure changes somewhat, I think you would see some of that build through 2025. But it really depends on market structure at any time.

[Anthony Linton, Analyst at Jefferies]

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. Thank you.

[Sean Brown, SVP and CFO at Gibson Energy]

You bet.

[Operator]

Thank you. There are no further questions, so I would like to now hand the call back to Beth.

[Maurice Choy, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Thank you, Therese. And thank you for joining us for our 2024 Third Quarter Conference Call. Again, I would like to note that we've made available certain supplementary information on our website, gibsonenergy.com. If you have any further questions, please reach out to investor.relations@gibsonenergy.com. Thank you.

Participants

Executives

• Curtis Philippon, CEO
• Sean Brown, SVP and CFO

Analysts

• Anthony Linton, Analyst at Jefferies
• Robert Hope, Analyst at Scotiabank
• Robert Catellier, Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets
• Patrick Kenny, Analyst at National Bank Financial
• Ben Pham, CFA at BMO
• Analyst
• Maurice Choy, Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets