Ross Stores Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
November 21, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Leadership transition: Jim Conroy named CEO elect effective February 2, 2025, with Barbara Rentler shifting to an advisory role through March 2027.
  • Q3 sales underperformance: Comparable store sales rose 1%, below expectations due to merchandising execution issues and an estimated 1% weather drag.
  • Margin beat: Q3 operating margin expanded by 75 bps to 11.9%, and EPS came in at $1.48, driven by lower incentive, freight and distribution costs.
  • Growth initiatives: Added 43 new Ross and 4 dd’s Discount stores in Q3, on track to end the year with 1,831 Ross and 354 dd’s locations.
  • Q4 guidance: Projecting comps up 2–3% and EPS of $1.57–1.64 versus $1.82 LY; full-year EPS now forecast at $6.10–6.17 (adjusted for timing of Packaway).
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Earnings Conference Call
Ross Stores Q3 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Before we get started, on behalf of Ross Stores, I would like to note that the comments made on this call will contain forward looking statements regarding expectations about future growth and financial results, including sales and earnings forecasts, new store openings and other matters that are based on the company's current forecast of aspects of its future business. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical performance or current expectations. Risk factors are included in today's press release and the company's fiscal 2023 Form 10 ks and fiscal 2024 Form 10 Qs and 8ks on file with the SEC.

Operator

And now, I would like to turn the call over to Barbara Rentler, Chief Executive Officer.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Good afternoon. Joining me on our call today are Michael Hartshorn, Group President and Chief Operating Officer Adam Orvos, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer and Connie Kao, Group Vice President, Investor Relations. Before we get started, on behalf of our Board and the entire company, we are excited to welcome Jim Conroy to Ross Stores as CEO elect next month. Following a 2 month transition, Jim will assume the CEO role on February 2, 2025.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Jim is a talented and proven retail executive with a demonstrated track record of developing and leading successful management teams and creating tremendous value for shareholders. As I previously announced, I will move into an advisory role at the beginning of fiscal 2025 and will support Jim and our other senior executives on merchandising related strategies through March of 2027. Now let's turn to our earnings results. As noted in today's press release, we are disappointed with our 3rd quarter sales results as business slowed from the solid gains we reported in the first half of twenty twenty four. Although our low to moderate income customers continue to face persistently high costs on necessities, pressuring the discretionary spending, we believe we should have better executed some of our merchandising initiatives.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

In addition, we estimate a combination of severe weather during the quarter from Hurricanes Helane and Milton along with unseasonably warm temperatures also negatively impacted comps by about 1%. Despite the below planned sales results, earnings were ahead of our expectations. Operating margin for the quarter was up 75 basis points to 11.9% versus 11.2% last year as lower incentive, freight and distribution costs more than offset the planned decline in merchandise margin. Total sales for the period grew to $5,100,000,000 up from $4,900,000,000 in the prior year with comparable store sales up 1%. Earnings per share for the 13 weeks ended November 2, 2024 were $1.48 compared to earnings per share of $1.33 last year.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Net income for the period rose to $489,000,000 versus $447,000,000 in the prior year period. For the 1st 9 months, earnings per share were $4.53 on net earnings of $1,500,000,000 compared to $3.74 per share on net income of $1,300,000,000 for the same period last year. Sales for the year to date period grew to $15,200,000,000 with comparable store sales up 3% over last year. For the Q3 at Ross, cosmetics, accessories and children were the strongest merchandise areas, while California and Texas were the best performing regions. Similar to the Q2, dd's Discount's strong value of fashion offerings continued to resonate with its shoppers, with comp gains exceeding Ross' results.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

At quarter end, total consolidated inventories were up 9% versus last year, while average store inventories were up 1%. Packaway merchandise represented 38% of total inventories compared to 39% last year. During the Q3, we also completed our expansion program for 2024 with the addition of 43 new Ross and 4 dd's discount stores. For the year, we added a total of 89 locations comprised of 75 Ross and 14 dd's. We plan to close and or relocate 7 locations in the Q4 and expect to end the year with 1831 Ross stores and 354 DD's discount locations.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Now Adam will provide further details on our Q3 results and Q4 guidance.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Thank you, Barbara. As previously stated, comparable store sales rose 1% in the quarter. Operating margin increased 75 basis points to 11.9 percent. Cost of goods sold improved by 70 basis points in the quarter. Buying levered by 65 basis points mainly due to lower incentives, while distribution and domestic freight costs declined by 50 basis points and 40 basis points respectively.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Occupancy rose by 25 basis points, while merchandise margin decreased by 60 basis points. SG and A costs for the period improved by 5 basis points, primarily due to lower incentive costs. During the Q3, we repurchased 1,800,000 shares of common stock for an aggregate cost of $262,000,000 We remain on track to buy back a total of $1,050,000,000 in stock for the year. Now let's discuss our 4th quarter guidance. For the 13 weeks ending February 1, 2025, we continue to project comparable store sales to increase 2% to 3%.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Earnings per share for the Q4 are planned to be in the range of 1.57 dollars to $1.64 compared to $1.82 in the Q4 of 2023. This guidance range includes an unfavorable impact of approximately $0.03 per share primarily from the timing of Packaway related expenses that benefited the Q3. Based on our year to date results and our Q4 forecast, earnings per share for the 52 weeks ending February 1, 2025 are now expected to be in the range of $6.10 to $6.17 versus $5.56 last year. As a reminder, last year's 4th quarter and full year results included an extra week that benefited earnings by approximately $0.20 The operating statement assumptions that support our 4th quarter guidance include the following. Total sales are projected to decline 1% to 3%.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

As a reminder, last year's extra week contributed $308,000,000 to sales. We expect operating margin to be in the range of 11.2% to 11.5% versus 12.4% last year. Last year's Q4 included an 80 basis point benefit from the extra week. This outlook reflects lower merchandise margin as we continue to increase the penetration of quality branded merchandise, partially offset by lower incentive and freight expenses. Net interest income is estimated to be about $35,000,000 Our tax rate is expected to be approximately 24% and weighted average diluted shares outstanding are projected to be about 329,000,000.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Now I'll turn the call back to Barbara for closing comments.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Thank you, Adam. To sum up, we believe we have opportunities to improve our merchandise execution and remain confident that our ongoing focus and commitment to delivering the most compelling value possible will best position our company for profitable growth over the near and long term. At this point, we'd like to open up the call and respond to any questions you might have.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. And the first question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your question.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Great, thanks. So Barbara, could you elaborate maybe on the opportunities to improve merchandising execution that you cited? Any assortment changes for holiday or just your confidence in 2 to 3 comps for the Q4? And then Adam, as we think about gross margin, maybe just gross margin relative to plan, especially on the merchandise margin side in the Q3. And any differences in drivers as we think about 4th quarter puts and takes relative to the 3rd?

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Sure, Matt. So, 1st opportunities to changes in the assortment. I think we had some execution issues in a couple of businesses that we've identified and that we think we can correct. Didn't probably move it quickly as we should have in some things where there was some, I would say, shifts in the world from product perspective. I feel like that's an opportunity and we missed some volume there.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And also as we continue to iterate on our brand strategy and keep improving the brand strategy, listening to the customer and making those changes. So that continues. In terms of the Q4 and the acceleration and guiding to 2 to 3, as you get into the Q4, many of the businesses that are really important during the holiday season, and I know you know this, whether it's gifting or cosmetics, those businesses accessories have been strengths for us. So as we go into that period, we're going to some of our strongest businesses and also gifting last year in a lot of our home world was very good and we're building on that. So I feel like those businesses should do well during the period.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

They're doing well now. And that gives us the confidence on the 2% to 3%. And again, we'll continue to iterate on our other strategies in the remainder of the box and where we had some execution issues, we are in the process of fixing them. And obviously, we had some weather issues in Q3 that who knows what will happen from a weather perspective across the country for any of us, but we also had some of that.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

And Matt, on your question on Q3 and Q4, I would I'd probably start with merchandise margin. And I mentioned it declined by 60 basis points in Q3. Now that result benefited from better than expected drink results as we completed our physical inventory process and trued up our results in Q3. And then looking forward to Q4, probably an uptick in pressure for merchandise margin as we continue to push to offer more brands that are sharply priced to deliver the strong value proposition that we want for our customers in the holiday season. Domestic freight, we mentioned was 40 basis points it was worth 40 basis points in Q3. I would expect that to be pretty consistent in Q4. I'll always caveat it with fuel costs, but assuming they stay where they are, would expect that to be comparable.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Distribution cost again were another source of strength for us. We mentioned the packaway shift that we have to take into account. So that was worth $0.03 that'll put pressure on us in Q4. Incentives both on both sides will continue to be favorable. We would expect in Q4 as we're again up against a 2023 where we are outperforming in a significant way. And then lastly, obviously, we have the 53rd week impact that we talked about.

Matthew Boss
Matthew Boss
Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase

Great color. Best of luck.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Mark Altschwager with Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Mark Altschwager
Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co

Thank you for taking my question. Barbara, you're going to be passing the reins here in a few months, but remaining in an advisory role. Maybe speak a little bit more to your areas of focus as you transition your responsibilities. Relatedly, merchant team still seems to be in the early innings of this value strategy or brand strategy iterating there. I guess, any changes to expect there or could anything change there with the new leadership? Thank you.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Okay. My areas of focus obviously will be to spend time with Jim and help him onboard and to spend my time on merchandising. It will be an advisory role heavily focused on merchandising. I don't foresee any changes to our strategy because our brand strategy is really the key to our market share gains. I don't foresee that.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And but it will continue to iterate and that's really where I will spend my time. Obviously, Jim is a very seasoned CEO, and he complements the strengths that we have in merchandising and our operational team. So I feel like Jim is a great add and the team, it will be a good combination together and my role will be to make sure that merchandising continues going forward and that Jim gets transitioned appropriately.

Mark Altschwager
Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co

Thank you. Best of luck over holiday.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citigroup. Please proceed with your question.

Paul Lejuez
Paul Lejuez
Managing Director at Citi

Thanks guys. Couple of quick ones. Curious if the execution issues related at all to the strategy of moving more towards recognizable brands and how quick you can fix those issues. And Adam, any quantification of that shrink benefit, how much it helped the merch margin line? And then also curious if you could talk about the performance of some of your initial store openings in the Northeast? Thanks.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Okay. The execution issues are potentially merchandise, I would say merchandise mix issues, not so much on the brand thing. However, the brand strategy, we keep iterating on that and keep listening to the customers. We keep making changes as we go. So obviously, as we started this in the beginning, I said that each business is at different points at the starting point to where we are now.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And so we keep responding to what the customer is telling us. So I would say that across the board we'll continue to do. And just some things we're just execution issues, which we can fix.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Paul, it's Michael Hartshorn. On the shrink, we don't break out shrink separately. What I would say is we and you know this covering us from over the years as we completed our physical inventory in the Q3, We had assumed that shrink was going to be worse for a couple of reasons. 1, just the external landscape, but also the increased number of brands in the stores. So what that meant is we accrued more going up to physical inventory.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

And so we took a benefit, a larger benefit in Q3 that helped EBIT margin not only versus what we guided, but versus last year. For the year though, shrink looks like it's going to be about flat to 2023 again with the upside in the Q3.

Paul Lejuez
Paul Lejuez
Managing Director at Citi

Thanks, Ed.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Your last question Paul was on the Northeast. It's too early to comment on the overall store productivity, but we are pleased with what we've seen thus far.

Paul Lejuez
Paul Lejuez
Managing Director at Citi

Thanks guys. Good luck.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Lorraine Hutchinson
Lorraine Hutchinson
Managing Director at Bank of America

Thank you. Good afternoon. As the branded strategy continues to evolve, do you view this as a multiyear merchandise margin headwind? And are there other offsets that you're working on to ease some of this pressure in 2025 and beyond?

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Lorraine, our expectation is that over time that as we build our brand relationships and as we learn what works best with our customer that over time it would be earnings accretion. And we'd expect slight improvements of margins over time.

Lorraine Hutchinson
Lorraine Hutchinson
Managing Director at Bank of America

Thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Chuck Grom with Gordon Haskett. Please proceed with your question.

Chuck Grom
Managing Director at Gordon Haskett Research Advisors

Thanks. Good afternoon and congrats on your upcoming retirement, Barbara. Can you talk about the cadence of sales throughout the quarter and then also the composition of the comp between traffic and ticket? And then if you could double click on ticket between UBT and AUR? Thank you.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Sure. On the cadence during the quarter, comps were strongest early in the quarter as the weather became more difficult gradually as we move through the quarter. We did see improvements in sell throughs in markets when the weather became more seasonable. As we said in the commentary, the comps were driven by traffic. The other components of comp were relatively neutral.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Simeon Siegel with BMO Capital Markets.

Simeon Siegel
Simeon Siegel
Managing Director & Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Can you dig in a little bit more to the brand strategy pivot? I guess just first maybe to contextualize, how meaningful is the shift within the mix? Maybe how's the early reception? Just curious if you're seeing learnings from or feedback from vendors or consumers? And then maybe just following up on Lorraine's, just recognizing the merch margin pressure now, I'm just wondering ultimately with better brands, do you think you get to raise price there to fix that margin pressure if so long does it take before maybe the customers can accept those higher price points at the stronger value? Thank you.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Okay. On the early customers acceptance, I'll say of our branches, in many of these businesses, these are not major branches, right? And so I just want to emphasize that the brand shift is good, better, best, all kinds of values and pricings, moderate and above. And so in some businesses, the brand shifts aren't that great because they were already at the, I would say, appropriate level that the customer is responding to and really liked and so we didn't do it. In other areas, we felt like we needed to make bolder moves.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And ladies, we felt like we needed to make bolder moves than we have. And so we're at again, we're at different journeys and different acceptance levels by the customer based on what the product is and the area that it is. So it's not just a straight line that I could say, hey, this is where we are completely on the journey. Some places we feel that we're there and in other places we feel like we have a long road to go and not a long road, that's probably a better question. We have a ways to go in figuring out exactly what it is she wants.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And that really tends to be more in our ladies business. And as you know ladies is a tougher business. And so we're learning, merchants are shifting as customers is voting and we want to get that right mix of the right brands that she likes and a mix of good, better, best at the level that she enjoys. And we want to just make sure in the entire thing that we're giving compelling values there, particularly in ladies as ladies is a tough business always compared to other parts of apparel.

Simeon Siegel
Simeon Siegel
Managing Director & Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

So thanks. So would you expect AUR to naturally progress higher through this or is it not that meaningful?

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

No, not necessarily. It's not an AUR strategy. It's really a brand and value strategy. So we're not going in and saying we want to raise our AUR by X. We're putting out different brands at different levels in a good, better, best and then and it's seeking its own level with customers.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

We can see what they like more than others and making adjustments as we go. Because some businesses didn't have to make it as big a move perhaps as the latest business has to make, but it's not an ABR strategy. It's a value strategy at all brands here so that we're addressing all the customer base, right? So we have customers who like every price point and we want to make sure that we fine tune that so that we can consider that we can still give that treasure hunt experience to all customers in the store. So it's a learning and an adjustment as we go and we think that ladies will continue to improve as time goes on and some other businesses are again, some are tweaked and some are bigger moves.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And the merchant team is very, very on this and we are very focused on value because delivering compelling values is really the single most important thing we need to do for our future and for our market share gains.

Simeon Siegel
Simeon Siegel
Managing Director & Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets

Great. Thanks very much. Good luck for all of you.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Adrienne Yih with Barclays. Please proceed with your question.

Adrienne Yih
Adrienne Yih
Managing Director, Consumer Discretionary Analyst at Barclays

Good afternoon. And Barbara, congratulations on your retirement, your So just to sort of like sorry, another question on this. Have you given any color on what the kind of brand penetration or the tweaking that you've done, like how much tweaking? Is it mid single digit percent of the assortment? And I know it's going to be very, very hard to kind of do that on a global basis, but any color there on the amount more in brands? And then Michael or Adam, perhaps if you could help give us some color on sort of the differential and I guess it will be different per brand, what the differential to kind of the current merch margin is relative to kind of what a brand might be like the increased brand penetration.

Adrienne Yih
Adrienne Yih
Managing Director, Consumer Discretionary Analyst at Barclays

And I guess my final just like wrap up on that. Back when you were doing 14%, 15% operating margins, the gross margin was 100 and change, higher 29%. So if we do have kind of merch margin pressure, is the offset to come from leverage from just gaining higher than a year over year historical kind of 1% to 2% comp? Is that the how we should think about it? Thank you.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

I'll start with your last question first. It's Michael. How we see our operating margins going forward? Obviously, we have a model over time driven partly by new store growth, comp growth which has historically been in the 3% to 4% range and some operating margin improvement in the middle and in our share buyback. We have initiatives throughout the company whether it's technology investments, whether it's cost control to be able to offset any impact to merchant margins.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

As I said though earlier over the longer term, we believe that we can grow merchant margins from this base based on our vendor relationships as this gains traction and also as we learn more about what the customer wants.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And in terms of the penetrations, I mean, that's very it's hard to do, you're right. You can't do it at a global level. It's different by business. And so it's hard to do that. I think that the thing as we started this whole brand thing, and as I sit back and we've been talking about we've talked about brands, we always had brands in the store.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

I mean our business model is to have brands. What we realized is that in some getting surveys and feedback and everything in some areas we needed more. What more it's something that I can't pick a number and say, hey, this is where we're going to march to because the customer has to decide what that is. I think the most important thing for us to recognize and for everyone to recognize is that we're responding to what she's saying, right. And so and then making changes to it.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

It's hard to just pick a I can't pick percent. In some areas, if we were talking about an area like shoes, we would have said we are highly brand, we are highly branded, we were highly branded. There weren't so many changes. So it just it depends what it is. I can't give you one number.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And the other thing, it will seek its own level and we'll know when we've got to like in some businesses where we feel like we are where we want to be. In some of those, we'll know by the terms, we'll know by the markdowns, we'll know by how quickly the merchandise is moving through the store. And I think that's really the way to go, which is why it's kind of hard to just quantify here's where we're going because the biggest mistake we can make would be picking a number and just kind of really forging forward to a very large number that maybe is incorrect. So we started out with a number to begin and we keep iterating again on what she's telling us. And that can be different by products and it can be different by where I am in some of our businesses for classification.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Brooke Roche with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Brooke Roach
Brooke Roach
Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking our question. Barbara, can you comment on what you're seeing in the macro backdrop for the Ross Stores consumer? Outside of the weather events that we saw this quarter, have you seen any change in the way that the consumer is engaging with the brand? And then as a follow-up, it sounds like Didi's is still outperforming the Ross Stores banner.

Brooke Roach
Brooke Roach
Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

What insights are you gleaning from that regarding your low income consumer or is that an execution differential? Thank you.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

It's Michael Artson. I'll start with the dd's. First, it potentially is the dd's group and merchants have done a very nice job and we're happy with the adjustments we've been able to make in the dd's chain. They've been able to improve our value in fashion offerings and it's resonated very well with the customer and dd's outcome for us for the quarter. One other bright spot for dd's is the newer markets where we slowed growth have improved. But we need to see given that their sales volume started at levels below our expectations, we'll need to see sustained growth there before we ramp up new store growth in some of those newer markets.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And Brock, do me a favor. Give me more flavor around what you want as you're saying the customer engaging with the brand. You're just saying that

Brooke Roach
Brooke Roach
Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Is there any change in the macro or consumer engagement with your business as we've moved through the early holiday season outside of the weather events?

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

You mean just has the customer now that weather is gone, is the business improving and is the customer out shopping again? Yes. I think when I think if we went through the Q3, I think the Q3 started off strong, then weather came. And then obviously, as Michael said before, as the weather changed by region, we watch the consumer come back. So part of it is weather.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And then there's a lot of shifts going on as holidays coming earlier this year. So, I think part of it is just that. And I think an earlier Christmas, I think might change a little bit of the dynamic to how the customer is going to shop. It's been a long time since we've had Christmas the week before. So, but yes, coming out of the weather, the customer did come back.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Brooke, from a just a customer basis on whether income basis or age basis, we have not we did not in Q3. We haven't seen over time a significant shift on that basis either.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Alex Straton with Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.

Alex Straton
Alex Straton
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Perfect. Thanks so much. I just wanted to focus on the 4th quarter guidance. Is it correct that the outlook hasn't changed much from last time we spoke except for the packaway shift or have some pieces within there moved? And then just on the comp acceleration that you're still embedding, should I just assume that that's reflective of what you're seeing quarter to date or what gives you the confidence there?

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

On the guidance it hasn't changed. The only thing that's changed is Packaway. On the guidance itself, 1st, the unfavorable weather had a negative impact on the Q3 that we're not expecting in the Q4. We'll see how it plays out. As Barbara mentioned earlier, as we move into the Q4, many of our merchandise areas that have been performing well are important Q4 and holiday businesses.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

And then finally, the guides based, we feel good about our assortments we have planned for the holiday especially in gift giving.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Michael Binetti with Evercore. Please proceed with your question.

Michael Binetti
Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI

Hey guys, congrats on a nice quarter. This is a really big beat margin beat for 1 comp guys. Any is there any near term change in the leverage point we should think about? Or could you help us contextualize what you think this in this quarter would not repeat if in the theoretical if we saw 1 comp again? And then on the branded goods strategy, maybe you can just help us understand if the underlying merch margin decelerate or accelerate versus 2Q?

Michael Binetti
Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI

If we exclude the shrink true up, are we past the peak of the branded goods pressure? Or what would maybe what would cause it to accelerate or continue to moderate?

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Yes. Michael, on the first piece. So, our EPS beat, we talked about merchandising merchandise margin coming in better than expected related to strength. I would say, we also felt good about just our overall cost management within the quarter. So multiple parts of the P and L benefiting.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Now does that change our leverage point? No, we still think 3% to 4% comp growth is the right place for us to leverage. The shrink is obviously a one time piece, right, because we true up in Q3 as we always do. And then of course the pack away is one time in nature. So I think the only other moving part that we haven't talked about, EPS benefited by higher interest income that embedded in our guidance is some pressure assuming further rate cuts the balance of the year.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Michael, we don't our leverage point hasn't changed. As Adam said, we had a lot of one timers in the quarter. Looking forward and even longer term, the leverage point is pretty constant between 3% 4%.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Dana Telsey with the Telsey Advisory Group. Please proceed with your question.

Dana Telsey
CEO and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group

Hi, good afternoon everyone. As you think about the implementation potentially of tariffs going forward, How do you think of your assortment and pricing relative to the tariffs that may come into place and remind us of what happened last time? And then when you think about some of the changes in management like with dd's, any holes to fill or with this branded strategy, is anything shifting within dd's also, given the improved results that we've seen there? Thank you.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Dana, on the tariffs, we'll be are closely monitoring any developments there. I'm sure everybody across the industry is doing so. It's too early to say what the potential impact could be on us and the rest of retail. Our focus in the case of a tariff increase would be to maintain a pricing umbrella versus traditional retailers and offer the best values to the customer. We will not be a leader in raising prices.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And in terms of dd's, there are dd's has their strategy in place that they've been working on and that'll just continue. So there won't be any other new strategies or additional changes. They'll just be building upon their successes.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Ike Boruchow
Ike Boruchow
Managing Director: Senior Analyst - Retailing, Specialty Softlines and E-commerce at Wells Fargo

Hey guys. Adam, sorry if I missed it, but could you give us maybe an update on freight in the 4th quarter? And then maybe just high level state of the union domestic and ocean into next year? Just how we should expect that line item to kind of progress based on what you have in front of you right now?

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Yes. Ike on the domestic side, so we're 40 basis points of improvement in Q3, probably expect something similar in Q4. It's been tracking pretty consistently all year. On the ocean side, it was a negligible impact in the quarter. In the short term, would expect that.

Adam Orvos
Adam Orvos
Executive VP & CFO at Ross Stores

Obviously, we're watching some of the potential disruptions and watching for the resolution of the strike issue that would impact the East Coast ports and the Gulf ports. So we're watching all those things, but with what we know right now, don't see that as anything other than neutral. And then we'll have to see as we'll come back and talk to you at the beginning of the year on how we see 2025 and beyond and once we get into the bidding process for next year.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Jay Sole with UBS. Please proceed with your question.

Jay Sole
Jay Sole
Managing Director at UBS Group

Great. Thank you. Barbara, just wondering if there was anything related to inventory availability or just timing of buying that sort of contributed to some of the issues or an execution that you decided that impacted Q3? Thank you.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Well, in terms of inventory availability, it's favorable. Again, some businesses have more availability than others. In terms of the impact of buying for Q3, I'm not sure I understand what you mean, Jay, by that. Just that we have buying that we were buying or just or did that contribute to the quarter's performance? I'm not sure what you want me to answer.

Jay Sole
Jay Sole
Managing Director at UBS Group

Right. Perhaps like did you buy too much inventory too soon, not leaving open to buy? Did you sort of

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

No, I don't think that was part of the issue. And in fact, in seasonal businesses, we leave money open, things like outer or whatever because history would tell us that you don't know how it's going to start. And so we leave the merchant sleeve liquidity so that we don't get caught with that. So, yes, I don't think it has to do with the speed of what we bought or I think it's just some of the choices we made or didn't make, but it has nothing to do with that.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Marni Shapiro with Retail Tracker. Please proceed with your question.

Marni Shapiro
Founding Partner at The Retail Tracker

Hey, guys. Thanks. Congratulations on the hire and Barbara, you will be missed. I have a quick question for you. The Dollar stores collectively have been under a lot of pressure and have made announcements that they're closing a lot of stores. And I'm curious if you could just give us a little insight into how many, if any of your DD stores or Ross stores, in fact, compete with them in similar areas? Is there an opportunity as they close stores? If you've seen some of those stores close already, and you've seen the customer for certain items shipped over to you?

Marni Shapiro
Founding Partner at The Retail Tracker

If you could just frame that a little bit because it's, obviously a big retail conversation.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Yes, I don't have the exact number of stores, obviously smaller footprint, a lot more consumables than what we have in dd's. So I would say it's hard to see any impact very different merchandise mix. So could there be some upside potentially, but given what's in the box, I don't see it as a huge upside.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

It's really consumable, Marty. That's really their business is so big and dd's does, the business in consumables. But I think that's I think in what they have in there, I think that's probably to Michael's point, that's probably the biggest overlappotential opportunity.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Anisha Sherman with Bernstein. Please proceed with your question.

Aneesha Sherman
Analyst at Bernstein

Thank you for taking my question. Barbara, if I can ask a follow-up on the brand strategy. So you talked about good, better, best. Are you seeing any differences in the performance of the good versus the best in terms of sell through and velocity? And then, a follow-up on the weather comments. You said the weather comment weather impact to comp was about 1%. As we've come out of some of the weather issues, have you seen the comp run rate in those impacted stores improve by about that magnitude coming out of the back half of the quarter? Thank you.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Nishu, on the weather, yes, we did. And I said previously, we did see improvements in sell throughs in markets where weather became more seasonable within Q3.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And then on a good better bet, we turned goods overall very quickly in the store. I mean, there's always some turn differential, but the overall churn on apparel is very fast. So I think we own I would put it this way, we own the right goods at the right value, it all turns very quickly. If we own the wrong quickly. If we own the wrong goods, it doesn't turn as quickly.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

So, but overall, the entire box, we turn we drive receipts. Our mission is to drive receipts not on inventory. So turn is always on our mind. But it's again, it's really about the value putting on the floor, the product and the value. It always comes back to the product and the value.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And then it will turn quickly because the customer knows in a treasure hunt environment. If I don't buy it, it won't be there next week.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of John Kernan with TD Cowen. Please proceed with your question.

John Kernan
Managing Director at TD Cowen

Excellent. Thanks for taking my question. Maybe just to go back on the real estate theme, off price, whether it's raw stores, dd's, your competitors at TJX and Burlington, a lot of store growth plans for the next 2, 3, 5 years. How is the real estate availability for raw stores and across really regionally Northeast, West, Southeast, all countries there. What's your view on the overall availability outlook and the quality of real estate for all price retail right now?

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

Sure, John. I'd say overall we feel good about what we have in the real estate landscape and we have a healthy pipeline for the next couple of years. I would say real estate is tight. There's not a lot of new centers being constructed. And for us there's increased interest from other retails and the types of real estates that we typically prefer.

Michael Hartshorn
Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores

That said, we have a very strong team that has a methodical process of developing a healthy real estate pipeline to support our growth plans over the next number of years.

Operator

And the final question comes from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.

Laura Champine
Director of Research at Loop Capital Markets LLC

Thanks for squeezing me in. Your incoming CEO has got a difficult comp with a 40 year veteran of off price merchandising. And I'm curious whether that will likely change the structure of his direct reports or responsibility set. And also, Barbara, to the extent that you're comfortable talking about it, I think this is a pretty insular industry, especially as you move up the ranks. Why is now a good time to bring someone in from outside off price, from a smaller company?

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Okay. So responsibility, reporting to him will be 2, 1 25 year plus veteran and the other 30 year plus veteran. So I think from a merger perspective and tenure and below that level, the average tenure is around 20 years below them. So I feel like, I think that's fine. I actually think it's good.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

I think so he's got a very strong bench below him that understands our price and yes, I mean, I'm very comfortable that the mix is good. And actually, I think Jim complements some of the talent that we have in the organization. In terms of timing, look, a year and a half ago, we're there in June of 2023, we announced internally, externally that I was going to step down. And the agreement was that with the Board that if we found the right person looking internally, externally, the whole thing, when we found the right person that we would hire that person, I would move to an advisory role. So I don't know if it's necessarily the timing with where we are at this brand strategy.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

I think the single most important thing is to have the right person. And that to me is in the handoff, that's critical, right? So I do, I think Jim is the right person. And so and obviously there's a lot of tenure at Ross of people who've been here a long time, not only me, but Michael and Norman, there's a lot of people who have been here a long time. So Jim will learn the business, but I don't it had nothing to do with we have our brand strategy.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

We're not going to we find the right person, Lauren, you know, when it's right, it's right and Jim is the right person. And so that really was a decision and I was part of that decision. So I feel good about it. And clearly, we're going to make sure that Jim is successful because we have him pretty surrounded by true off prices and veterans who have been doing it. I'm getting older as I'm saying this to you, for years years years, but that's really what we've done.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

And that's really why the timing kind of is earlier. But again, when you find the right person, I'm sure you've all done searches, everyone on this call. When you find the right person, you really have to jump on, I'm going to say jump on the opportunity being an off price, right? So everything is opportunistic. And so I think the timing is good for the company and he'll be supported all along the way.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time, there are no further questions. Now I would like to turn the floor back over to Barbara Rentler for any closing comments.

Barbara Rentler
Barbara Rentler
Vice Chairman & CEO at Ross Stores

Thank you for joining us today, and I hope everybody has a happy holiday.

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

Executives
Analysts
    • Matthew Boss
      Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan Chase
    • Mark Altschwager
      Senior Research Analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co
    • Paul Lejuez
      Managing Director at Citi
    • Michael Hartshorn
      Group President, COO & Director at Ross Stores
    • Lorraine Hutchinson
      Managing Director at Bank of America
    • Chuck Grom
      Managing Director at Gordon Haskett Research Advisors
    • Simeon Siegel
      Managing Director & Senior Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
    • Adrienne Yih
      Managing Director, Consumer Discretionary Analyst at Barclays
    • Brooke Roach
      Vice President, Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
    • Alex Straton
      Analyst at Morgan Stanley
    • Michael Binetti
      Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI
    • Dana Telsey
      CEO and Chief Research Officer at Telsey Advisory Group
    • Ike Boruchow
      Managing Director: Senior Analyst - Retailing, Specialty Softlines and E-commerce at Wells Fargo
    • Jay Sole
      Managing Director at UBS Group
    • Marni Shapiro
      Founding Partner at The Retail Tracker
    • Aneesha Sherman
      Analyst at Bernstein
    • John Kernan
      Managing Director at TD Cowen
    • Laura Champine
      Director of Research at Loop Capital Markets LLC
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