Orix Corp Ads Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
November 8, 2024

Key Takeaways

  • Record-high net income of JPY 182.9 B in 1H, up 42.8% YoY, representing 46.9% of full‐year target and 9.3% ROE versus 9.6% goal.
  • Interim dividend raised 45% to JPY 62.17/share with a 39% payout ratio and a JPY 50 B share buyback underway to support EPS.
  • Operations rebound with Kansai Airport traffic at 109% of pre‐COVID levels, F1 renovation for Expo 2025, and a JPY 1.27 T MICE IR project co‐investment with MGM.
  • Finance segment faces political and FX uncertainty, sold two‐thirds of its credit arm stake and has postponed US credit card expansion until FY 2026 amid rate and yen risks.
  • Investment segment plans JPY 520–600 B in asset sales and JPY 700 B in new deals focused on SME succession and carve‐outs, while monitoring logistics construction cost risks.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Orix Corp Ads Q2 2025
00:00 / 00:00

Transcript Sections

Skip to Participants
Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Since it is time, we now would.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Like to get started despite your busy schedule.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you very much for attending the earnings call by ORIX Corporation. This is the second quarter of fiscal year ending March 2025 Earnings Call. I will be serving as a moderator. I am from IR Sustainability Promotion Department, Nakane. At today's earnings call, we have Director, Representative Executive Officer, President and CEO Ryo Inoue and Operating Officer in charge of IR, Kazuki Yamamoto. Before we begin, I have a request to you to prevent echoing. If there are any communication devices such as mobile phone, please turn them off or put them away from the device that you're using to attend this earnings call. Today we will be explaining about the progress of performance and outline of our business. Mr. Inoue will explain and this will be followed by some additional remarks by Yamamoto-san and also open up Q&A.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

After that we plan to hold this about an hour, so Inoue-san, over to you.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

This is Inoue from ORIX. Thank you very much for your attendance. So let me explain by making use of the slide number 2. For the first six months of FY25 March, ORIX recorded pre-tax profit of JPY 257 billion. Net income was JPY 180 billion, up 42.8% year over year, a record high first half net income for ORIX. Now this represents 46.9% progress in our full year net income outlook of JPY 390 billion, and we expect strong earnings to continue into the second half. So we will continue to work towards achieving our earnings target. First half ROE came in at 9.3% and we will continue to recycle capital in order to meet our full year ROE target of 9.6%. Now please refer to page 3. Here on this page we have outlined progress for each of the three categories. Finance, Operations and Investments.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

For all three categories, I believe we were able to post first half results that were in line with expectations. Segment profits for each category. Finance JPY 92.8 billion Operation JPY 105.8 billion Investments JPY 89.2 billion for a total of JPY 287.8 billion. This represents 47%, 44% and 48% of each category. Full year target pre-tax profits which are segment profits minus unallocated SG&A expenses from head office and administrative departments for first half was JPY 257 billion. Please move to page 4. In the finance category, the sale of 2/3 of ORIX stake in ORIX Credit to NTT DOCOMO resulted in the business becoming an Equity Method affiliated firm and reducing the amount of profit it contributes.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Despite this, ongoing strong performance at ORIX Life Insurance contributed to earnings in this category and therefore we expect finance category profits to grow in year by year on an actual basis. After excluding last year's JPY 57.2 billion gain on the sales of ORIX's credit stake within Japan, we had expected yen interest rate to go up slowly. However, given the results of Japan's recent Lower House elections in the National Diet, we now anticipate a scenario characterized by political instability, worsening of Japan's fiscal situation and further yen weakness. Although I feel there is some room to hope for improvement in finance related spread and asset management yields, we plan to carefully watch for trends in changes in the interest rate while maintaining our current policies to keep the status quo in the financial segment.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

In addition, in light of the results of U.S. Presidential elections, I think that geopolitical risks and certainty could worsen. Owing to extreme foreign policy, the U.S. is likely to carry out rate cuts and economic stimulus measures, but these could lead to resurgence of inflation, higher interest rates and the weaker yen. So as of now, it is difficult to get a read on conditions for 2025 and beyond. In any case, we can say that now is the time to proactively grow the scale of our assets in the ORIX USA business. However, during this fiscal year we will prioritize a conservative view on credit cards and plan to begin this asset expansion in earnest from FY26 margin and beyond. That said, we are seeing some signs of a recovery in the private equity market and some areas of the real estate market.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

While the CLO market is clearly on a recovery track. Although we see some room for upside potential during this fiscal year, we have not reflected such expectations on our earnings projections for the segment. In any case, in light of the fact that we are doubtless in a period of political uncertainty, we have slimmed down the ORIX USA balance sheet in using both securitization and third party sales to JPY 10.8 billion as of end September 2024, a reduction of about $2 billion over the past two years. We remain cautious on the Greater China region. We have held off new investments in China including Taiwan at ORIX, owing to the sluggishness in consumer spending and the severe real estate slump. The balance of our investments in Greater China are less than 3% of total group assets, so we view our risk associated with this region as limited.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

These revenues in other regions of Asia and Australia segment are healthy and we have no particular concerns regarding these businesses. Please move on to page 5 in the operation category. Pre-tax profit rose 5.1% to 105.8 billion JPY, achieving 44% of our full year target. We expect profit to rise for the full year as well. At Kansai Airport, the number of foreign passengers has risen to 109% of pre-COVID period by spring 2025. The renovation of Terminal 1 building will allow us to expand our capacity for overseas route traffic to 40 million passengers. This will position Kansai Airports to be completely ready to host visitors for the Expo 2025 Osaka, Kansai, Japan. In addition, an increase in inbound tourists has led to sharp improvements in both occupancy rate and profitability at ORIX's hotels and inns outside of Kansai airports.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

ORIX's current businesses within the Kansai region include the Umekita Phase one and two projects where ORIX Group, Mitsubishi Estate and Hankyu Hanshin Holdings have worked together as partners to jointly promote redevelopment of this key urban area. In September 2024, this group and six other companies together opened part of the Grand Green Osaka section of the project early, while the full scale open will be from 2025. In addition, the MICE IR project development will begin in earnest following the conclusion of Expo 2025. Total project costs are JPY 1.27 trillion. Even after accounting for future inflation, ORIX Group and MGM will plan to invest between JPY 300 billion-JPY 350 billion each, while 22 major Kansai firms will contribute around JPY 127 billion in total.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

This and 530 billion JPY in financing from banks will complete the capital required for the project and so we can expect the start operations in fall of 2030. In the environment and energy segment, we announced the acquisition of hydropower resources in Spain by Elawan Energy. 175 megawatt equipment production, that is and the signing of a power purchase agreement between Elawan and Google in the United States. In Japan, we continue to steadily move forward with the renewable energy business such as construction of energy storage station, while keeping a close eye on interest rates and construction costs. Our main focus continues to be contributing to a decarbonized society over the long term. Turning to the asset management business, Robeco, our core asset saw AUM grow to a record high of 358 billion EUR.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Including Robeco asset management companies in ORIX Group now have assets totaling 74 trillion JPY as of June 2024 and we continue to push forward in our efforts to realize scale of 100 trillion JPY in assets at an early stage. Please move to page 6. In the investments category, we achieved a 200% year-over-year increase to 89.2 billion JPY in pre-tax profits. This represents 48% of our full-year target.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Many SMEs are facing successor shortage and they are obliged to close their businesses, so our policy is to respect the corporate culture of investees and along with related stakeholders we are to develop the businesses, so ORIX during the investment term we develop the successors of the industry using the sales network of group within and outside of Japan and promote the sales of new products of industries, introduce partners who can work cowork including overseas and enrich a branch network, so apart from capital provisioning, we are proud to be a partner being able to provide various benefits. Not only PE investment but corporate financial service segment. We are sincerely facing the issues of business successor issue of 40,000 clients including M&A referrals. We are providing various services. Please go to page 7.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Sale of F.A. Holdings and also sales of 100 Circus, which is a property operation facility. It is contributing to our investment category. In the second half we are revisiting the portfolio and for the assets on potential sale, we are now discussing with the potential buyers. We will continue to do so to achieve the target during this fiscal year. From sales we will be collecting somewhere between JPY 520-600 billion and also capital in new investment will be about JPY 700 billion. Capital recycling is working very well. We will avoid excessive impact on our financials. We will be managing appropriately ALM. ORIX has been targeting unlisted companies and we have been carrying out marketing efforts focusing on business succession projects, but going forward we will also proactively work on carve-outs related to restructuring of Japanese companies and also delisting of the investees.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

As a part of this effort, we have announced investment into projector business of Panasonic Connect. Going forward, we have to gain permits and also go through the procedures of spinoff of business division. So investment will be executed within March 2026. So Panasonic Connect will own 20% of the entity. So together we will operate the business. So in addition, we have invested in Lines which is a company which develops and sells educational software. So apart from PE investment segment, including inquiries to the group, we have a rich pipeline. We will be selective in carrying out investments and also logistics related investment. We have many under development but with a higher construction cost. There are impacts on profitability so we are paying attention to downside risks. Going on to page 8.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Aircraft and Ship segment. There were defects of aircraft by Boeing and there were also strikes and the supply of new aircraft are tight. There are these factors and used aircraft prices going up and airlines load factors are rising and the credit is improving. Overall airline industry is achieving healthy growth. ORIX Aviation owns and manages roughly 200 aircraft. We plan to increase mainly a narrow body of our fleet. ORIX has 30% stake in Avolon. It announced the acquisition of Castlelake Aviation asset management firm of 118 aircraft. It announced to use its own debt of $2 billion to acquire including their debt. Moody's has increased the credit rating outlook from Baa3 stable to positive. We will maintain the financial soundness and expand the business.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Going forward we will continue to work with ORIX Aviation and build the portfolio focusing on narrow body at least long term to leading airline carriers. We will continue to do the capital recycling. In March 2023, Santoku Senpaku joined the group and we purchased 67 ships at a cheap price including a new Eco vessel using methanol fuel. We are proceeding with purchasing of three Panamax bulker. Based on today's market, the portfolio of ships is more than JPY 100 billion. Going forward, we will drive with capital recycling and utilize ship management capability of Santoku and manage the vessels of a third party. We would like to explore entering into coastal business as well. Moving on to page nine. This is about shareholder returns and interim dividend.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

At the earnings call of March 2024, we announced that a dividend would be higher of either 39% of annual net profit or JPY 98.6 which was the dividend of last year. Therefore, the interim dividend will be 39% of JPY 182.9 billion. This is the first half net income which means that it will be JPY 62.17 per share. So compared to JPY 42.8 which was last year's interim dividend, it's the dividend hike by 45% 19.8. And if we can achieve the net income of JPY 390 billion, then the annual dividend per share will be JPY 133. Please go to page 10. While growing profit, we are mindful of ROE. That's how we want to improve our corporate value. That's core policy of ORIX. So for the buyback program of JPY 50 billion, this is underway.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

And for the buyback of shares, until we improve ROE significantly, we are committed to continuing this program. So improving profit goes without saying. But we will continue to manage the company focusing on EPS for fiscal year ending March 2025. This will be the final year for three-year plan of 2023 which was announced in 2023. So from the initial plan JPY 390 billion is nothing that we can be proud of, but we are planning to do our utmost to achieve this level. And in addition for the next three-year plan the discussion is already underway so that stock price can continue to achieve more than one times PBR in a stable manner. And also we would like to go on to achieve ROE 11% and 15%.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

We will come up with measures so when we announce the results for fiscal year March 2025, we would like to share the direction. That will be all from my end. Thank you very much for your kind attention.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Mr. Inoue. Thank you very much.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

This is Yamamoto speaking and now I will share some of the details of our financials. Please refer to page 11. In the first half, segment profits were 287.8 billion JPY which is up 29% year by year. This breaks down to 221.5 billion JPY in base profits dark blue colored and 66.4 billion JPY in investment gains light blue and the lower right-hand chart shows quarterly profit trends. Both base profits and investment gains had trended well with base profits rising to 117.7 billion JPY for the second quarter annual with investment gains coming in at 32.9 billion JPY, both being the highest quarterly figures in three fiscal years. Please turn to page 12 and 13 for outline of segment profits and segment assets. Seven of 10 segments reported higher segment profits year over year.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

Several segments enjoyed double-digit profit growth including real estate, PE and concession, aircraft and ships and corporate financial services and maintenance leasing. Of the three segments where profits fell year by year, banking and credit segment was as outlined by CEO Inoue earlier, owing to the absence of profits from ORIX Credit. In Energy and environment, profits were down due to the sluggishness in the overseas wholesale electricity market and one-off losses were from an investee booked in the first quarter. However, ORIX's renewable energy capacity in operation has grown from just one gigawatt at the end of March of 2019 to 4.5 gigawatts at the end of September of this year with an increase of 0.2 gigawatts in the last 12 months. While being mindful of short-term market trends supporting demand for clean energy caused by the dramatic increase in the remains to be very important.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

At the same time, it is also key to carefully watch trends in interest rates and construction costs. Segment Assets were down slightly by JPY 114.5 billion versus end-March to JPY 15.9 billion owing primarily to foreign exchange. This is largely in line with our initial expectation.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

Next, about the Financials on page 14. As you can see on the left, as of end of September, including deposits, short- and long-term borrowings was JPY 8.5 trillion. This was flat from last fiscal year including borrowings from financial institutions. We continue to raise funds efficiently through corporate debt market. So as you can see in the middle, the funding cost. The funding cost related to foreign currency began to come down from the second quarter. FRB is set to continue to cut rates. Therefore, in line with market consensus, we expect that US dollar interest rate will decline. That's our assumption. Yen-based cost, the funding cost interest rate, is on the rise slowly but the favorable funding environment is likely to continue. So right now the interest rate sensitivity remains the same as previous quarter and yen interest rate hike are listed as slight negative.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

And this is because we have company used assets which does not have interest rate sensitivity. And we also have some foreign denominated assets including emerging market currency that are linked to yen assets. So yen interest rate sensitivity remains to be a positive, and for the forex with one yen cheaper impact before tax profit is JPY 1.5 billion. So forex means to be volatile. So including hedge, we need to flexibly and efficiently control the risk. Of course, the sensitivity analysis of ALM this does not include the future interest rate outlook, businesses and financial operation. Therefore, our base case is for US dollar and Euro interest rate to come down and a slight increase in yen interest rate. So according to the changes, we will flexibly change our policy and for interest rate outlook and financial business direction. This was explained by Mr.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

Inoue earlier and the result of a presidential election in the U.S. and lower house election in Japan and domestic policy. Regardless of this trend, we expect that both interest rate and effects will continue to be opaque. So we need to carefully monitor, and as you can see on the left on page 15, the ratio is 1.6 times. This is a conservative leverage, and in the center, based on the assumption of A-grade from global credit rating agencies, employed capital ratio is stable at 93%. We will continue capital recycling and conduct optimal capital allocation of the portfolio through close communication with the credit rating agencies. We will pay attention to the financial soundness. That will be all. We would like to open the floor for questions now.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

So if you have any questions after the star mark, please enter one, and when your name is called, please pose your question. If you are to cancel the question after asterisk, please press 2. And for the questions, we would like to limit one question per person.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

So we have from Bank of America.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you very much for this opportunity. So I will ask one question. For the JPY 3,390 billion profit for the full year. I know that you have achieved about 50% progress. So therefore there was much progress as compared to the first quarter. Now in terms of the achievement. So how comfortable are you, especially in light of the pipeline of the sales that you are scheduling?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

This is in a way answering to your question. Normally, as you know our company, I'm sure you have been following our company for some time now. So we tend to be tail heavy in achieving our fiscal year earnings. And that was really the case in the last year. We are not as heavy as we were in the last year.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

But in terms of gain on sales, we are scheduled to generate more in the second half, and it is trending well. I would have to say so. JPY 390 billion of achievement. I don't know how confident we are in achieving the goal. I think that we will be able to achieve 100% of this goal. In terms of the pipeline, there are some non-public deals. There's non-auction deals on a one-on-one basis. This is why I will not be able to disclose much. It is on schedule.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

I'm sorry to follow up. Especially the electric power station. Referring to page 22, I can see that there may be some major asset that you are planning to dispose.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Spain's electricity price that had fallen in and I think there was some discrepancy in terms of the timing of the posting of these numbers in the past. But with regard to the disposition of this electricity facilities, the power facilities, do you think that you are gaining more appetite or what?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

The case in Spain, in Europe, that is, the government's intent or the control over the electricity power unfortunately was out of our expectations. This is why we did generate some losses. But then it is now recovering and we did acquire hydropower station and we have 150 gigawatts that will start generating profit from next year. As a core income this would be reflected to our financials.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

As for the disposition and if we can sell some of our assets, of course we would have to refer to the balance of what we can gain on the sales of some of these assets. And of course there would be counterparty if we were to sell these assets and we would have to get the permission of the government as well in many of the cases. So we will not be able to share when we will be able to dispose of this asset. But we should be able to conclude the sales and that we will be able to post some gains. I'm sorry, please allow me to limit my explanation to that. Thank you.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

SMBC Nikko Muraki-san, please.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Yes, I am Muraki from SMBC Nikko Securities on page four. So after the presidential election, how you recognize the environment you mentioned a little bit. But in your businesses and also in your investment, what will be the impact? If you could elaborate to be more specific, in the U.S. you are considering M and A of renewable energy. So will this be impacted? And yen is cheap, so M and A exchanging yen to foreign currency, you will refrain from making such an investment. So with the politics, your business and your investment policy, what will be the case with external directors?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

We had a discussion today as well. So Trump's ideas and his policy, it's difficult to read. It will be a deal by deal. So it's 150 yen to the dollar right now, 154 yen to the dollar.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So I don't think Trump will admit this to China. He's taking a strong line and he will do that to Japan as well. So he wants to make yen stronger. So the pressure will be quite strong from President Trump. So if so, yen depreciation, shifting to yen appreciation. That's the hunch that I have about. When it comes to us, it's all confined within the U.S. market. That's the business that we do. So we will not experience this Nippon Steel case. And with 154 yen, can we acquire? Should we acquire? And if we can gain profit even at exchange rate of 154, then we may give a go ahead. So in yen-dollar terms, it will be quite significant with 154. But yen-dollar and euro, we are controlling everything separately. So we procure in dollar and we pay in dollar.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So, of course, on the financial statements there will be an exchange, a translation, but let's say IRR would be 20% or so. If we can go after that. Or those that has growth potential, like infrastructure and private credit companies, and also AM firms, these are the potential areas that we are continuing to look for. So some are under due diligence phase. Did that answer your question?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Yes, I've understood very often. Well, thank you very much.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Thank you for the question.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

The next person is from JPMorgan. Sato-san, over to you.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

This is Sato from JPMorgan. So ORIX USA the second quarter business conditions if you could be so kind enough to share with us. So 32, 33 on those pages you have shown the performance of ORIX USA. But it looks as if they have faced a pretty tough second quarter, especially real estate and also private equity because credit loss and also origination of real estate had remained to be sluggish. And that's a qualitative kind of description of the businesses. What had exactly happened in the second quarter which had led to such a result. And also if you could be so kind into that, kind enough to describe the impact as well.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So it's a multifamily. When we talk about the real estate property at Lument.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Finance origination and all the ADCs' disposition, the sales in fact, is the main businesses. But as a result of the interest rate hike, the borrowers, unfortunately, the non-performing loan had increased so bad debt has increased. So we have taken over these assets and renovate them and to keep them and wait until the market to recovery. So that's what we are working on and this is why unfortunately it is putting a pressure on the profitability. So if the, of course, the interest rate starts to come down, I'm sure we'll be able to enjoy the normalization of the businesses. But it may take a little while until we can enjoy such a normalization. But I think the worst time is almost over. So we hope to enjoy something that is more positive.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

But reposition, renovation, and also the management operation and also the disposition, the timing is to be thoughtful. So with regard to multifamily assets, I think for the next six months to 12 months, the current situation is likely to persist. Private equity, they are small in size and already at fair value. The book value had risen, but there has been some correction. So we are trying to adjust ourselves to the fair value by way of carrying out an impairment. So in other words, we're working on the correction or adjustment and this correction phase should be over and done with by end of this fiscal this calendar year and thereafter.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

We would like to watch over the development of the interest rate in the United States as well as the economic stimulus which may be introduced by President Trump so that we'll be able to resume our activities in the investment so that we can be ready anytime. So that is where we are in the United States.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

If I could follow up or if I could ask you to follow up, especially with regard to real estate. So the second quarter, if we were to cut out the three months, I suppose $5 million I think it is only limited to $5 million but just has been explained by Mr. Inoue just now.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

So if you were to think about the market risk, so you would like to of course maintain the current situation, the status quo and do you think that you'll be.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

Do you think that the current level of profit generation is likely to continue from the next in the next quarter and onwards for the second half? In other words, October through to March we do not foresee much of the upside coming from United States. We are remaining to be defensive in the United States. So therefore about $250 million or so of a profit is what we are foreseeing to be generating. But it will not reach to 300 million or that is not our expectation. So this by achieving this 300 in achieving this JPY 390 billion of a profit for the entire group, we do not expect a large contribution coming from the US that's what it is. Understood. Thank you so much.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you. Next, Daiwa Securities Watanabe-san, please.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Yes, this is Watanabe from Daiwa Securities on page 10. This is about improvement of corporate value through investors meeting. The feedback has been shared at board meeting. So if you could share some of the major points and if you could give us some updates on the current trend of achieving midterm management plan.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So in the U.S. I did IR roadshow and executive officers have made some explanations and we share that to the board members and finance, investment and operation. We are disclosing these three categories and now investors have a better idea of disclosing in such a way. So with these three categories, we would like to evolve how we go about disclosing the information. So that was some comments made by external directors.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

ORIX is very difficult to understand, but we want to make it easier to understand. So as an effort in doing that, we will continue to disclose from these three category perspectives. Then we may foster the understandings of the market and external board members also agreed. So that was discussed at today's meeting as well. Okay, thank you.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So for the next midterm management plan, what kind of KPIs will be introduced? Any additional comments?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So at today's board meeting. So when it comes to qualitative, well, in the past we created numbers and how we go about achieving those numbers. So from external directors or outside directors, they did not like it. We should start from strategy, talents and deals and projects. However, the projects we have them in front of it. How should we treat them and process them and incorporate that into our existence strategy.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So we should make it upside down. That was the advice given. So in the coming five or 10 years, in what kind of direction are we proceeding? So that was the discussion made at today's meeting. But that was a more at a qualitative discussion. So we need to also reflect the qualitative discussion into quantitative discussion and then come up with numbers in three years time or five years time. So those will be the steps. So when it comes to target setting, it will be somewhere between January and March and then come May. I believe it was May. When we make annual financial results, how we will be discussing and announcing what will be considered. So we still do not have numbers yet. So if you could give us a little more time. Thank you very much.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Thank you.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you for the question. The next person is Sasaki San from Nomura Securities.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Over to you.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

This is Sasaki from Nomura Securities. Thank you very much for the opportunity. As to the outlook for the next year and beyond, I would like to hear from Mr. Inoue for this fiscal year to the guidance. I know that the progress has been pretty smooth and roughly about the 10% ROE is likely to be achieved. And this 10% ROE, if you were to raise it to the level of 11% or 15%, with the current uncertainty that surrounds you and also making use of the capital, may not that be easy? I suppose so. Mr. Inoue, what is the image that you have in your mind? If you were to continue the way you are, do you think that you can achieve 15%?

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Or is there any kind of other ways that you may have to explore in order to achieve this 11% or even beyond?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So what is your kind of strategy that you have in your mind? That is a very difficult question. But if we remain to be where we are, as we are, I think it would prove to be very difficult for us to achieve 11% or of course let alone 15%. Even if we were to repurchase our shares by JPY 550 billion or even more, I don't think it would be possible for us to achieve such a level of ROE. So if we were to buy back our shares to the extent of JPY 1-2 trillion, we may be able to achieve that high an ROE. But that doesn't sound realistic.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So why we proceed with like M and A, you know, like acquire a company that enjoys high profitability or to sell some of the businesses that kind of experience low kind of ROE, or to degear up perhaps. But in any case, I think we would have to raise the ROE and there are various different means and methods that we can utilize. But currently, if we remain to be as we are and who we are, then I don't think it is difficult to achieve 11% and beyond. So this is why we may have to continue to replace and recycle of our capital and assets that has to be continued. So if we remain to be where we are, 11% may be achievable. But going beyond 11% like 13-15% is not possible. So if you could follow up by sharing one piece of information.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Are you thinking about something that is different from the past and that could be like MNA or to divest low ROE company? You have given us some clue. But if you were to think about the business management from next year onwards, out of those three options that you have mentioned, which one in fact is you would put the priority on which one do you think that you would like to focus on? We would like to expand our asset management business. But even if you were to expand the asset management business, it may be limited to like you know, if it was to be a one trillion-two trillion yen, that the return would be very limited. Now we have 75 or so trillion yen, but we need to extend it to 100 trillion yen and even beyond.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

And this is something that we need to achieve in one or two years' time. As a matter of fact, to the third party investors, you know, having been entrusted with their capital, in other words, expanding the AUM as an asset manager, in other words, we really want to be, you know, acquire an asset manager. But at the moment the price is not right. So this is why if we are carrying out the negotiation right now as if we are successful, if we succeed in acquiring it, we may be able to expand our AUM. And also one other business is aircraft. Currently we have 200 in our fleet, but 150, of course aircraft making use of our investors' money. So we want to of course raise it to like 200 and even beyond. So this is not going to be a short-term solution.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

But if we were to pursue this way, the principal investment can be contained by making use of the third party's capital money. I think that would be the first step and as we have said, maybe to sell off some of the low ROA company and to acquire a high ROA company on the other hand, the businesses, on the other hand. So that will be my effort in the next, my prime mission in the next two years.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Okay, understood. Thank you very much.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Thank you.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you very much. Next, Mizuho Securities Sakamaki san, please.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Yes, I am Sakamaki from Mizuho Securities.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

I have one question.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

So the asset, the credit status of your assets I would like to confirm. So data book on page 27 or 28 using this, if you could respond that will be helpful. So the concerns that I have are the allowance for the credit loss from end of June we can see the trend. But as you explained in the U.S. the credit you are very prudent in provisioning and perhaps there are some concerns. So why did your concern come down since then?

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

So this is Yamamoto speaking, if I may. So I think you're looking at the supplementary materials for the credit loss provisioning on page 28. So this is the number or this is the page that you're looking at?

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

Yes, correct.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

So here is, you know as I mentioned, in the U.S. so mid cap market the credit situation of course we cannot be optimistic.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

So where we are investing and some of the loans we are provisioning, we are being conservative and we reassessed. So that is the reason. So that credit of course it is not increasing significantly and also non-performing loan or loan under management we have been controlling and we have been picking up signs to deal with this. But rather in terms of our business direction, the market or the environment has not come back so that we can be proactive in getting these credit.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

Okay, understood.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

So the provisioning for credit loss from end of June is coming down. So were there drawdowns and where was it?

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

The general provisioning total asset in the U.S. is coming down and how we are reducing this, we are using CLO or a selling fund of loan assets and also ORIX USA credit, the profitability is improving and this is because we're lighter in the balance sheet, so that is why general provisioning has been drawn down.

Kazuki Yamamoto
Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.

Okay, understood. Thank you very much.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you for the question. The next person is Niwa-san from Citigroup.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

This is Niwa speaking from Citigroup. So I hope you can hear my voice as to the investment pipeline. I have some questions and that is page 45 of your deck. And if you could be so kind enough to allow me to understand how to interpret this.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

So I don't think there has been any kind of major changes by looking at this. I suppose you are kind of building in terms of the disclosure policy, you're just incorporating those that you can be absolutely sure of. But do you think that we could be a little more optimistic if you could give us some more color to what has been reflected onto this page.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

In specific terms, we will not be able to share anything at this point in time. Just to give you an example, for example, 70% in fact is owned by Bohai right now. But we may be able to acquire the 70% from Bohai so far as Avolon stake is concerned or to acquire asset manager in the United States or here in Japan. Private equity can be built up more here in Japan. So these are some of the conversation that is underway. So in total, although we have been sharing that we may be spending as much as JPY 700 billion, but if you were to build all those up, we may be spending about JPY 1 trillion or even more. So this is why we will not be spending that much, which means that we will remain to be quite selective.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

That would be contributive to the enhancement of ROE. That is continued; it is still underway. If it becomes more kind of short deal, then we may be able to disclose it. I'm terribly sorry for this, but because of the non-confidentiality or non-disclosure agreement, we will not be able to share anything anymore. It is not just staying at the pipeline, but you know, while we would acquire some of the assets, that would be recycling. Therefore, 700 billion JPY of acquisition and maybe 1 trillion JPY or close to that much of divestment. If you could allow me to limit my explanation to that. Expansion of new business domain. Digging down deeper in the existing business kind of domain that I understand because you have a good level of expertise.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

But how about the new domain, the business domain?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So when we talk about new business domain. So you mean by non domain that belongs to that is non existing? Well, we do not describe it to be non domain because we go by transaction by transaction. It just so happens that this one of the transactions may fall into like new domain such as the medical area. Some discussion is underway. I don't know whether you can describe it to be new domain because you do not segregate new to old or existing. So the private equity M and A, there are several kind of deals that are under discussion right now.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Thank you very much for your idea.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Thank you.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you. We are still accepting questions, so please raise your hand. So once again after asterisk, please press 1 for questions. From Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Takemura-san, please.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Yes, this is Takemura speaking. Thank you very much for this opportunity. I have one question. So going forward, the capital gain, your ideas towards generating capital gains is my question. In the first half there was a progress in profit and dividend is 39%. So that's your DPS this time around. So like last term, if a capital gain is skewed, then perhaps dividend will fluctuate. So which means that going forward, capital gains you will be leveling between first half and second half. Is that your idea for against this first half of profit? It's 39%. So will you be applying that throughout the year?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

This time in the first half, yes, a profit against that 39%. So with 33% in the previous term, the interim dividend, it was the same. But if we raised to 39% and then same dividend as last year interim dividend, I think everyone will be mad. So for the first time we used the number of first half and multiplied by 39%. It's the first time that we have carried this out.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So 39% of first half or second half?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Yes, that's what we need to continue going forward. What concerns me is okay, first half is already okay. But what's going to happen if we don't achieve the second half? So that is why in order to avoid that discussion, we are committed in achieving this JPY 390 billion. So 39% against the first half. This idea will continue down the road.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Okay, thank you very much.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you for the question. We are still entertaining your questions. If I may repeat, if you have any questions, please press 1 after asterisk. If you do not have any question, it's okay for you to be asking the second question. Even if you have asked the question already, you can be asking another question. So, Tsujino-san from Bank of America over to you. Thank you.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

So leasing aircraft. Leasing. I have a question. So the price of aircraft is rising. So AerCap earnings score, for example. So in other words, I think there is about 20-some% in terms of the gains on sales. So at Avolon, I know that there is a discrepancy in terms of the closing timing by one month or so. But there has been some gains on sales.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

But on the part of Avolon, 59 aircraft will now schedule to be divested disposed. So at ORIX Aviation or at Avolon. So what kind of margin are you enjoying for the aircraft that you have sold? Any kind of expectations that you have or can we expect more profits to be generated?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So Avolon, the reason why we are selling more is because the low spread aircraft, we should be selling them faster. That is our policy right now. So ROE ROA of Avolon is not that good as ORIX Aviation. We're not expecting Avolon to reach the standard of ORIX Aviation. But we have been giving out the guidance. So for 50 or so aircraft, whether we'll be able to enjoy a large amount of capital gain, we are not sure. But I don't think there will be a case whereby we'll be generating capital loss.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So among the airline kind of leasing, it is one of the best. So ORIX Aviation is. So this is why we have been giving out the strict guidance to Avolon that is to measure up to the expected standard. But if they are going to be purchasing any new aircraft, for example ORIX Aviation so that would be holding period of one to two years. So therefore to enjoy a capital gain of about 10%-20% is expected. I hope this answers to your question.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Thank you very much.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Thank you.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Next from Nomura Securities, Sasaki please.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

So 70% equity of Avolon. I think that's interesting. If you're interested in buying that, but taking the risk of Greater China, what do you have in mind? And once you acquire the shareholder agreement or some kind of agreement needs to be exchanged and I think I do recall that you are hedging by introducing the clause. So is such kind of deal possible?

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Well, for Bohai, 70% they want to sell their stake to third party. But 30% of ORIX there are some restrictions. So that is why we don't. There's no one who are taking who are interested because of the veto right and so forth.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

And the goal or this company is considering, and next year there will be a completion of sales. After that, Bohai will hence seriously start to think about Avolon, and there is a pressure from Beijing. So at some point in time, they will be selling, and the buyer will only be ORIX, and there has to be a discussion. So it's about $5 billion for 70%, which means that ORIX alone will not be able to purchase the whole thing. But if ORIX is willing to hold 100%, some investors are willing to join us. So maybe we can take 51% in total, and the remaining 49% owned by other investors. And after they purchase, by improving the performance, we hope to bring the company to IPO. So that's the scenario that we are thinking of.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So there's an intention of Bohai but so far behind, if they were to sell, they're thinking of us as a potential buyer. So if we don't become too greedy, then they might come to us. But if we become too greedy they might try to go elsewhere. And if we purchase from Bohai, then there's no longer China-related risk. And thereafter, basically we will not take any China or Chinese-related risks. We will be free from that. So Avolon, the airline of Greater China, they do have some exposure.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So which means that if this continues, there's no problem.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

No, we will do the valuation of all airlines. If we are to go through this process and if there are any lease contracts with a delayed payment, then of course there will be some discounts.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

And whether it be one times or 0.9 times of PBR, we will calculate and decide on the purchasing price. So we will be taking a risk of airlines, but basically the focus is narrow-body. And if there is a default then ORIX Aviation or repossession capability, they have a lot. So with a repossession we can apply that to other airlines. So there should not be a concern in this regard.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

Okay, thank you very much.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

That was helpful.

Sachiko Nakane
Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation

Thank you for the question. So it is almost time for us to finish off this session, so we'd like to conclude this Q and A for now. So I'd like to ask Mr. Inoue to share his closing remarks.

Makoto Inoue
CEO at ORIX Corporation

So, for the first half, well, I think we have trended quite well. But the market remains to be uncertain. So I will not be able to say out loud that we are okay for the full year by 100%. But at the moment we have confidence in achieving JPY 390 billion for the full year. So please continue to watch over the development. You know, warmly, that is. So with this, we would like to conclude the second quarter results briefing for ORIX. Thank you very much for participation today.

Analysts
    • Company Representative 6
    • Company Representative 8
    • Company Representative 3
    • Company Representative 5
    • Company Representative 4
    • Company Representative 9
    • Company Representative 10
    • Company Representative 7
    • Sachiko Nakane
      Head of Investor Relations at ORIX Corporation
    • Company Representative 1
    • Company Representative 2
    • Kazuki Yamamoto
      Operating Officer and General Manager of the Corporate Planning Department at SANKYO CO., LTD.
    • Makoto Inoue
      CEO at ORIX Corporation
Powered by Quartr